2016 Weather to the Azores

[barnakiel]

With early boats having departed already I though someone may be interested in looking up weather information related to wether outlook between the West Indies and the Azores.

At least one serious source assumes we are in for an about average year re number of named storms and hurricanes.

Today the situation looks indifferent with no High in sight and a heavy brew possibly sweeping the whole area during the week. You will spot an early sign of what later may becone the High in the lower portion of 96 hrs forecast.

I am not posting links becuase the images have sticky names and they are rolling and so we would not have a quick reference material without extra work.

I may come back and post an update even if there is zero interest in this as last year I got numerous posters asking me things related to this period and area.

Cheers,
b.

[tchavei]

Hmm. We just had a tornado passing S. Miguel island less than 24 hours ago if that interests anybody.

Tony

Enviado do meu GT-I9195 através de Tapatalk

[barnakiel]

April 20 : Lows rolling on. The one W of Galicia helping those who are trying to escape the Med for the summer. Some amount of High lingers at the bottom of the image but it is 'too little too early'. The low moving in from the left can go where it likes as it likes and at this stage it is not forecast to intensify beyond a gale.


Cheers,
b.

[barnakiel]

April 22 update:

A weak High shields the Eastern portion of the Atlantic from a long trailing front. This front forecast to give two Low system nests - one above the Azores, the other around Bermuda.

Nothing spectacular. Big ships are sailing, small fish sit on the dock and sip another beer. Images attached. (all images: NOAA)

b.

[boatman61]

Thanks for the link Barni.. did not know you had this running..

[CarstenWL]

@barnakiel:

I am watching your synopsis with interest even that I am not crossing in 2016 myself.

Thanks!

Carsten

[ka4wja]

b,
Thanks for this...
and, although I'm not crossing this year either, I'm watching as well....that is, until I head out-of-town on a short vacation!

Originally Posted by CarstenWL

I am watching your synopsis with interest even that I am not crossing in 2016 myself.

FYI, there are still folks planning eastern Caribbean-to-Europe passages via Bermuda...
http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...ml#post2103567
Wishing them all Fair Winds!


John

[barnakiel]

Us not crossing now either, hence I can post here and update the thread maybe till late May or early June. Then I will be more busy as most of my clients will be sailing to the Azores and onwards to Europe late May and June.

We ourselves may cross late 2016 going West then sail back in 2017. I think it will be nice to dig the thread out in a year and see how the patterns developed the year before. Easier than unearthing archived NOAA chartlets, gribs and other stuff.

Cheers,
b.

[MarkJ]

I'm sailing to New York late May/early June so I am watching it.

Closely

8-)

Sent from a stupid phone that replaces words with weird stuff.

[Matt Johnson]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

I'm sailing to New York late May/early June so I am watching it.

Closely

8-)

Sent from a stupid phone that replaces words with weird stuff.

79st again? We debated running up there too this summer, but boat work has been slow.

We hope to cross the Atlantic again in 2017, but this time from the Caribbean. That's if we don't actually have to get jobs soon

Matt

[Dulcesuenos]

We're hdg to Bermuda sometime after the 2nd then on to the Azores. Watching the weather like a hawk. If anyone's bored and wants to keep us updated there's be some beer or rum in it for you lol..

Sent from my PLT1077G using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[barnakiel]

April 24 update:

Today some High pressure present in the East part of the basin then a couple of thousand miles' worth of weather front from the Low over the Azores all the way Hispaniola. One look at this front and you know there will be secondary systems along this one soon. Behind the front you will notice a shy High rolling on (1018/1017 on the chartlet). I like this one.

96hrs forecast is the interesting one though: you can see a secondary Low forecast at 30N/40W 1008 becoming 1004. My first tip is notice where it is and how it became, my other tip is download a grib and notice its forecast long range track. You do not want to sit on top of one like this when making your crossing. Watching this one casts some light on the phrase 'too early' discussed last year here at CF.

Wishing everyone fine weather.
b.

[boatman61]

Well this forecast (pic 2) is not going to happen it seems.. no Easterlies for 1000's of miles so.. my hypothetical departure last week is continued light/medium winds sailing... rough estimate 700 miles into the trip.
Hypothetical boat.. 60ft sloop.

[barnakiel]

No. 96 hour forecasts are not supposed to be spot on. Just think about probability of removed events.

Right now I cannot write up a daily but I will try to return here later today and share what there is.

b.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

No. 96 hour forecasts are not supposed to be spot on. Just think about probability of removed events.

Right now I cannot write up a daily but I will try to return here later today and share what there is.

b.

No.. they are not.. learnt that in the very mobile Biscay where even 36hrs ahead is a dubious 50/50.. that's why I just look for a nice couple of days at the start.. after that its take it as it comes..
However someone contemplating it for the 1st time may well be in a Stay-Go-Stay dilemma.. looks good.. then on the last trip for fresh bread a quick last minute check shows biggo crappo in 6 days.. back to boat.. 'All of lads.. if we go now we'll hit a Hoolie'.. 3 days later the 'Hoolie' is a flat calm