Mexican Hurricanes

[JPA Cate]

If the OP is interested, Latitude 38 is covering Odile in their 'Lectronic Latitude, and does have mention of marinas in which boats were damaged.

For newcomers to this forum, for about the last two years, Zeehag has been posting that Baja is not the place to be during cyclone season. Once again, Zeehag's choice of place to hurricane over has been vindicated. Well done, Zee!

Ann

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by Ann T. Cate

If the OP is interested, Latitude 38 is covering Odile in their 'Lectronic Latitude, and does have mention of marinas in which boats were damaged.

For newcomers to this forum, for about the last two years, Zeehag has been posting that Baja is not the place to be during cyclone season. Once again, Zeehag's choice of place to hurricane over has been vindicated. Well done, Zee!

Ann

thankyou , ann.
before i left san diego, in april, 2011, i looked at the physics involved in summering in caneville in a trap. gulf of california is a trap. when something big enters, it all becomes nasty. i watched as tropical storms damaged both sides of this gulf and continued my belief. unfortunately this odile made my fears real. i am soo glad i was able to stay in barra and i am also glad of the company of a few who decided to follow me into here for smmer storm season. i do not enjoy pain of loss. it is hard to watch as well as experience.
i feel very badly that many others were in some way, whether merely loss of canvas or more serious loss affected by this monster bitch of a storm.
words from la paz were not good. from a cruiser slipped for the storm in la cruz de huanacaxtle, nayarit, mexico i took a paragraph of update from la paz:

found an update from la paz:::::
stolen from another cruiser who is in banderas bay, they received this from someone in la paz....
...
From Ken Mclaughlin on Bula:
Text from my friends on Maya in La Paz a few minutes ago.............
"Well we made it with a sleepless night, a small leak in the door and lost our American flag. They say town is closed down, had 123 mph in town and was a catagory 3, only the 2nd to hit land since 1967. Was crazy, it is still over 50+ mph and is suppose to let up around noon today but will see. Lost over 17 boats and missing people,sad. Allen lost all of his canvas, I went over this morning to check it all out, we were suppose to of gotten skirted but came right at us. No time to get everything down,. Raining like hell right now, no power in La Paz. Alot of damage. Were fine so far."

unfortunately there are no pix as yet.

there are many with boats in la paz. some no longer have boats there, due to this odile named disastrous storm. at least they have their lives.
some folks do not- dont know where they are--just missing.

east coast usa and caribbean have furycames.
these can be disastrous. same happens here. many dont make it to shore, certsainly, but...when they DO, it is most severely ugly. just like haiti or puerto rico or any of the leeward, windward, or virgin islands in their adventurous canes.
a cane is a cane, and major is massive.
ours here can be intense and tiny, or intense and large, as odile is. odile is not done yet. and we have another wanting to form enough south that it can be a major before arriving at manzanillo...we hope it isnt, but there is always that possibility.
i kinda personally prefer when they are only small and weak here.. not but a tropical stormlet....larger is scarier.
i have spent 4 furycame years in this country, and i still like barra de navidad for furycame hiding...feels better.
soc still feels unsafe to me. physics is all wrong..
mazatlan didnt feel secure to me--i kept having bad feelings about the coming weather--it was more intense and much more lightning than here.
la cruz de huanacaxtle--wasnt a safe place for hiding, should something enter banderas bay at the mouth, always a possibility in sept..mebbe also the rest of the season...
in barra de navidad, we dont get so much surge as we get wind and rain. our major problems here are runoff and what is being blown into us. our harbor entrance here is baffled, but jova and some other good ones showed that this isnt always a piece of cake place to hang in summer. must always be aware and awake fro changes in intensity and proximity of center.
when you are in these awesome places for furycame season, always watch closely the panga fishermen. when they relocate their pangas to safe locations, start to get your stuff oprganized and recheck weather with a local source. here is: huracanes mexico and sonrisanet.org
nhc and goes also work.

btw--the fuel dock and some marinas used to be where now is a gorgeous beach......with the red peligro tape....

[zeehag]

latitude 38 had a warning, awaiting folow up...
Odile Threatens Baja Anchorages

September 15, 2014 – Baja California, Mexico

Shortly before 11 p.m. Sunday night, the leading edge of Hurricane Odile, then a Category 3 'major' hurricane covering an unusually large area, hit Cabo San Lucas and the southern tip of the Baja peninsula. Wind speeds reached 125 mph (108 knots), thus tying her with Hurricane Olivia of 1967 as having the highest wind speeds of any storm to strike the Baja Peninsula. Perhaps even more devastating than the winds, though, the storm generated as much as 12 inches of rain in one hour. In addition to the local population of Cabo, an estimated 30,000 tourists hunkered down to ride out the storm, which reportedly did major structural damage. No word yet on injuries or loss of life.


The only good news about Odile is that she is rapidly weakening as she moves north.

© 2014 NOAA

Now downgraded to Category 2, Odile's strength began to weaken as it hit the Baja California land mass. At one point before making landfall, it had reportedly reached Category 4 status (130-156 mph). As of 8 a.m. this morning, the eye of the storm was passing just west of La Paz, moving to the northwest at 14 mph, and packing winds up to 100 mph (86 knots). Hurricane-force winds extend roughly 500 miles from the eye, with tropical storm-force winds extending 200 miles from the center. At the time of this posting, Odile was passing ENE of Cabo San Lazaro, at Bahia Santa Maria — the Baja Ha-Ha rally's favorite stopping place.

Odile's projected track would take her up the Baja Peninsula through Puerto Escondido and Santa Rosalia, two centers of the small summer cruising fleet. Odile, at somewhat reduced strength, is expected to hit these areas sometime Tuesday, but forecasters theorize that its strength may be greatly reduced by then. Current forecasts suggest that vessels on the mainland side of the Sea of Cortez might be spared. As the accompanying graphic shows, Odile has taken an abnormally straight path thus far. The Los Cabos area is home to the 380-berth IGY Marina Cabo San Lucas and the 200-berth Puerto Los Cabos Marina. Both have withstood 100-knot winds of previous hurricanes. They might not be so lucky with the larger and stronger Odile.


Judging by Odile's remarkably straight track, it almost seemed as though she was gunning for Baja.

© 2014 NOAA

La Paz, 90 miles to the north, is another story, as it is the summer home of roughly 1,000 recreational sailing boats, and its marinas have seen big damage in the past. There is also a large cruiser anchorage, where some boats are stored with no crew aboard. Not surprisingly, we have not been able to reach either Cabo or La Paz marinas this morning for direct reports. It will probably be days before the full extent of the damage is known. If you have a firsthand report, please contact Latitude here.

- richard & andy

[zeehag]

EASTERN PACIFIC

Sustained hurricane force winds (at times over 100 mph), significant storm surge, incredible surf, and flooding rains will continue to impact southern Baja California, including Cabo San Lucas. The eye of the hurricane made landfall near/over Cabo San Lucas around 9:45 p.m. PDT Sunday, the strongest hurricane on record to landfall in that area, dating to 1949.

(FORECAST: Hurricane Odile)

The hurricane underwent an eyewall replacement cycle in roughly 24 hours prior to landfall (see below times in ET).

A slow, steady weakening should commence. However, impacts, including gusty winds and flooding rains, will continue all day Monday and into Tuesday. Odile is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm within 2 days, followed by a more rapid weakening.

Some of the moisture associated with Odile will move over the desert Southwest mid week. This will be yet another period of an elevated flash flood threat for this region.

[model 10]

Didn't you tell everybody to have "fun" just the other day? What were you thinking? I wonder if you have the real hurricane experience to offer your opinion.

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by Guy

Didn't you tell everybody to have "fun" just the other day? What were you thinking? I wonder if you have the real hurricane experience to offer your opinion.

you a lil snidely, eh??
i ALWAYS tell folks to have fun, even when my favorite brother died the other week.
i have enjoyed many furycames and have had fun while so doing.
attitude is EVERYTHING. (so is location!!!) oh yes! thou shalt not forget preparation ..
omygods the furycame police are here.. rodlmffao.
mebbe you ought to research where folks are sailing and cruising a lil better before you say stuff you dont know about. and stop bullying folks you dont even know.


blatantly stolen from the sonrisanet.org.

thanks Geary.
Monday, September 15, 2014
In our Tropical Kitchen this morning hurricane Odile has slammed into the cape region as a category 3 STORM (Winds around 125 mph) around 1 O’clock last night.
In preparation Mexican authorities evacuated coastal areas and set up shelters for as many as 30,000 people. The hotels have made their conference rooms available to vacationers and visitors to the area.
This is the strongest STORM to make landfall in the cape region. There will, of course, be considerable damage to the region to the area but as a 20 year resident I know that help is on the way and has probably been staging for the past couple of days. There will be caravans of both military and Power and phone utility vehicles from a half dozen Mexican states moving down Mex one as soon as they can. The military will set up kitchens, and have purified water stations available most likely later today. The power company will set up “Tweekers”. These are jet engines on trailers that are emergency power stations.
By noon today Odile will be a category 2 STORM and be in the vicinity of Mag Bay. By Tuesday around Abreojos as a category 1 STORM with winds between 74 and 96 mph. By Wednesday it is forecast to be around Turtle Bay and start to cross the Baja peninsula as a tropical storm and be in the Gonzaga bay in Thursday as a Tropical Depression.
So it’s one of those, “you can run, but you can’t hide” storms. Baja in general is around 50 miles wide. Just about every location on the southern Baja peninsula will be affected.
There is an area of low pressure in the Guatemala area that is forecast to start moving north and be our next STORM and move into our hood around next Thursday

rodlmffao--i DID say have fun after i posted when my brother died.. perhaps ypou didnt realize i was in mourning.... ha ha ha ha ha HAVE FUN!!!!!
you only live once! and for not too long, actually....

[SaltyMonkey]

Glad you are AOK zee zee!!

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by SaltyMonkey

Glad you are AOK zee zee!!

thankyou my friend. we had the furycame strengthen rapidly of four shore by about 80-100 miles, overlap was raining on us. we had no lightning this time, odd storm, and only 20-25 kts winds with this one, but it is a monster. large proportions and covers much area. lots of runoff.
cabo was directly hit by center of storm , so had most of storm slam there.
as it hit at cat 3 , there was nothing much left to save in cabo.
la paz was hit by only 123 kt winds, and is not going to have electricity for a few days.
i hear from other cruisers who and what is happening in other locales than my own. is a network we have here.
when i hear more, i will post it for y'all
richard of lat 38 wants personal experiences and some info on what is left and when it will be repaired, so if any of you are there and still have electricity or wifi, please contribute to his lat 38 address.
it an be found in the lat 38 article on prediction for cabo in the latest lat 38.
Latitude 38 - 'Lectronic Latitude

"The storm came ashore with a minimum central air pressure of 922 millibars. In general, the lower the air pressure, the stronger the storm. In this case, the storm had an air pressure equal to Category 5 Hurricane Andrew when that storm hit South Florida in 1992.

Storm chaser Josh Morgerman of iCyclone wrote on Facebook that the storm was extremely violent in the Cabo San Lucas area. Morgerman, who experienced Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in 2013, said Hurricane Odile was "one of the worst cyclones" he had ever been in."

[zeehag]

we have yet another to be odile, name of polo. this has same track path predicted.. everyone still intact-- hunker down. is at acapulco and already a ts, intensifying somewhat quickly.
please hunker down and prep well.

[SV THIRD DAY]

Originally Posted by From Boat in La Paz

Lost over 17 boats and missing people,sad. Allen lost all of his canvas, I went over this morning to check it all out, we were suppose to of gotten skirted but came right at us. No time to get everything down..

Haven't heard from our Dealer in La Paz (Tom Brown on SV Eagle) who also runs a boat management company watching boats, but I'll post some updates when I do.

Now I don't intend to be harsh on someone who just went through hurricane hell, but this is the type of thing I saw for years in Mexico and saw a month ago when I was in La Paz. It gets worse the longer the area goes without a hurricane as the folks that remember the carnage are no longer in the area en mass. Cruisers leaving up canvas when off the boat during hurricane season or when one is forming and even POSSIBLY coming your way is just plain CRAZY. Just like the poster said "no time to get everything down"...no ****....because you should have already had all the canvas down! The "It was going to miss us" hurricane prep approach is too risky. I was watching www.eebmike.com from day one and always thought La Paz was in big trouble. Hope and luck isn't a hurricane prep plan folks....it's crazy.

Like I said, I'm not trying to be an ass here, but the guy in the slip next to me that doesn't properly prep his boat adds risks to me, plus all the new cruisers need to understand that the work of stripping down the boat ahead of time will seem small compared to the paperwork and insurance claim.

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY

Haven't heard from our Dealer in La Paz (Tom Brown on SV Eagle) who also runs a boat management company watching boats, but I'll post some updates when I do.

Now I don't intend to be harsh on someone who just went through hurricane hell, but this is the type of thing I saw for years in Mexico and saw a month ago when I was in La Paz. It gets worse the longer the area goes without a hurricane as the folks that remember the carnage are no longer in the area en mass. Cruisers leaving up canvas when off the boat during hurricane season or when one is forming and even POSSIBLY coming your way is just plain CRAZY. Just like the poster said "no time to get everything down"...no ****....because you should have already had all the canvas down! The "It was going to miss us" hurricane prep approach is too risky. I was watching www.eebmike.com from day one and always thought La Paz was in big trouble. Hope and luck isn't a hurricane prep plan folks....it's crazy.

Like I said, I'm not trying to be an ass here, but the guy in the slip next to me that doesn't properly prep his boat adds risks to me, plus all the new cruisers need to understand that the work of stripping down the boat ahead of time will seem small compared to the paperwork and insurance claim.

excellent post. thankyou rich.
la paz has no electricity at present.
nor does cabo nor much of baja post odile.

y'all in baja with your own electricity and ability to send and receive messages, be ready, as newly formed tropical storm POLO is following on odile's heels and may prove an unholy terrorist from nature.
BE READY!!!!
sonrisanet.org is down for weather, temporarily, should be up again soon...

[zeehag]

our loverly next one has mexico making tropical storm warnings from zihuatenejo to cabo corrientes already, this is early in this game here.
this one is intensifying faster than the last one, and is headed same path as last one and one before. which one it takes is another story.
everyone hunker down and prep and prep like hell..
be ready!!!
these have been becoming furycames level 2-4 before they knock on my door this year--is a lil more exciting than it usually is here during low season, when we have weekly ts slide bys with an occasional cat 1 hovering.... this is waay more exciting.
crossing all there is to cross, and lighting a candle for mexico. ....
this has been a very intense year, fortunately nothing until now has landed in mexico.
this is merely the beginning of a dangerous and intense season, no matter where in mexico one hangs out.
we will not be done until fat lady sings out loud. could be end november, could be january.
we will know when it is done when it is over.

per dr jeff masters...

Dr Jeff Masters discussion of TS Polo.

Tropical Storm Polo a threat to Southwest Mexico

The Pacific coast of Mexico has a new heavy rainfall threat to be concerned with--Tropical Storm Polo, which formed about 360 miles SSE of Acapulco at 5 am EDT Tuesday. Polo is expected to head northwest towards the Pacific coast of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday, and will be capable of bringing heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches of rain to the coast of Southwest Mexico near Manzanillo Wednesday through Friday. While most of our reliable forecast models show Polo will miss making landfall, the reliable European model has the storm hitting Mexico near Manzanillo on Thursday, while the UKMET model shows Polo coming very close to the tip of the Baja Peninsula on Sunday. The 11 am EDT WInd Probability Forecast from NHC gives Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 31% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Polo, and a 2% chance of hurricane-force winds. Satellite loops show that Polo has plenty of heavy thunderstorms, but the storm is just beginning to get organized.

_________________

[Cheechako]

Boy, you guys are getting pasted this year. Hang in there Zee!

[zeehag]

whooot...more foto ops for sunrises and sunsets, which are always better after an before big events .. we usually only have a breeze around 20-30 kts and some lovely rain, so our cisternas are filled...
the ones i find concern about are those in sea of cortez/golfo de california, as it is soon after odile, and more runoff is probable, which is a major cause of damages here and there.

thankyou, amigo-- we floatin well, so far... good pumps and well tied down tarps so leaky teaky dont leaky on mee..... or bubba. he dislikes these storms.

oh yes .. as for mere numbers of em, last year we made it to letter S, aka 19.. this year we already at letter P and we screwed,as we have 2 mor e full months of weekly fun and frolic.. whooot.. let er rain.. oops rain on me.. uuhhh,, rain rain..... but we need ye so much and we watch what we wish for.....
buena fortuna, mexico, aqui esta el nino quien hay mucho enojado.....

have FUN!!! we be ridin birdee thru this in a marina slip, where we been a while, and expect it to be mas o menos como los otros. slide on by..water, breezes...almost sailing weather, but...
iff this actually does hit near manzanillo, we be the target , or lazaro cardenas would be, but they didnt mention lazaro, so.... we hunkered.
this is a turista location, so location names will be not released until the damages are done. we do know, however....
third day--i hope you hear from your people soon. i hope they safe and without major damages. it is scary up there.
unfortunately one of the more accurate models is showing landfall " near manzanillo" which describes my location fairly well. we see what the gods and momm anature actually deliver all too soon.
oops...
but, models and actuality are two differing realities. i prefer, in htis case, a different model and more westward movement of the tormenta.

[annsni]

From Charlie's Charts https://www.facebook.com/CharliesCha...444035?fref=nf

Here's a list of vessels in puerto Escondito that were damaged by the hurricane. This may be a partial list as it came via a ham net at 8:30 AM Tuesday
Lunacy - dismasted
Sea Toy - sunk
A 42' Tri (no name) hi and dry on the jetty
Estancia - sunk
Red Dolphins - on the rocks
Illusive - sunk
Angel - on the rocks
Nika (sic?) - dismasted
Equity - dismasted
Manta - holed hull but repairable
Rapscallions -on the rocks
In Santa Rosalia, the new marina is ok, but the old marina is broken apart.
That is not a comprehensive list, but it's what I've got at this point.