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Originally Posted by Amgine  ::grin:: 3500 as the crow flies, or 3500 after tacking against wind, wave, and current? I believe Valis was getting about 2-4 kts per hour VMG, and more than twice that over the ground, and they hadn't even made it to Mendocino.
I suspect I'm being more than fair in guessing 1500 worth of travel extra to make good 800.
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You're probably correct about our VMG, I haven't had the motivation to actually figure it out (the numbers would no doubt depress me). Of course VALIS is hardly an up-wind screamer. We can probably tack through 100-120 degrees CMG under good conditions. With the head seas we saw we did much worse. The extra cruising gear on deck probably didn't help, either. Of course the southbound current isn't going to help any boat's performance on this passage.
If you can wait for good conditions it is certainly do-able, especially with plenty of fuel. You would have to go pretty far offshore to avoid the very common coastal gales in July/August, which is why (I suppose) so many people use the near-shore harbor-hopping method, although the harbors are few, far between, and often have dangerous entrances in rough conditions.
Even the Hawaii-Seattle route can get dicey as you approach the continent. During the '08 Pacific Cup return, several boats got really hammered a few hundred miles off the Washington / Oregon / No. Calif. coasts. 40+ kt gusts and big waves were reported. Look at what happened to Skip Allen ("Wildflower") as he was approaching San Francisco. I've not seen such terrible conditions, but I suppose I've been lucky.
Plenty of people do make the coastal passage, and I will probably try it again myself one of these days. Do pay attention and be careful.
Perhaps not yet mentioned is sailing up "longitude I-5" (trucking the boat north on the interstate highway). I can't bring myself to do this, but many people do and it can make good sense.
I'm just sharing what I have learned and guessed, based on some limited experience and a lot of reading. Take it for what it's worth.