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Jeff,
I'm certainly no expert on multihulls.
Looking at the specs for the Corsair 31 series, they would seem to be a bit light for this kind of sailing (up the Jersey Coast), despite having made long passages and being advertised as "true long-distance cruisers". Don't forget, people have crossed the Atlantic in everything from a rowboat upwards, but this doesn't make them "seaworthy" IMHO.
The Corsair 31's have a displacement of under two tons (yes, only 3850 lbs), yet carry a very substantial sail area: nearly 650 sq ft for the main and jib. The asymmetrical sail area is just under 1,000 sq ft! This is a LOT of sail area, on a VERY LIGHT boat.
While I believe the data are reliable re: the prevailing conditions at the time of the accident last Friday (i.e., winds up to 18 kts, gusting 22 kts or so), it is always possible that exceptional conditions crop up in very small areas. Additionally, the Jersey coast is known for some short, nasty seas and some dangerous inlets when the wind pipes up. I don't think 18-22 knots, blowing for a very short time according to the data buoys, is consistent with the reported 10' seas, but one must always keep in mind that a few waves are up to twice the size of prevailing waves. So, anything is possible in a specific location and time. Whether it's probable is entirely something else, though.
Guess the bottom line is that we don't know exactly what happened. Would be nice to hear from the skipper himself. Thankfully, he was prepared with survival gear, and survived overnite.
Bill
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