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btrayfors · 11-05-2008, 19:14

Something very wrong here....

While the news article talks of winds of 40-55 mph winds, and the 57 year old sailor talks of "high seas", the local data buoys tell a very different story.

At 2PM on Sat the 10th -- four hours before the capsize -- winds were NNE @ 10 kts. By 8 pm, they were SE @ 3 knots. All four functioning data buoys in the area are in agreement that by 8 pm -- 2 hours after the reported capsize -- winds were very light, and remained so until this afternoon. Current conditions are E @ 20k, gusting 25kts.

Historical data from the Cape May data buoy "CMAN4" indicate that at the time of the capsize -- 6PM EDT or 22 hours GMT -- winds were extremely light, with "gusts" to only 4-5 knots. Data readings taken every few minutes during the period in question indicate that the winds never exceeded 10 knots in gusts! Very strange.

Very strange that all four buoys in the area are in agreement that winds were very light, while the sailor and the news article tell a very different story. Also, if winds were indeed 40-55 knots, I doubt seriously if the "fishing couple" who picked him up would be venturing out in seas which could be expected after a very strong blow.

As for the "10-foot seas", data indicate that wave height was consistently under 5', though the waves were "very steep".

What IS certain, however, is that you don't want to be venturing anywhere off the NJ coast tonite or tomorrow, with storm-force winds predicted as this very nasty front blows through.

For those who wish to check the buoy data, it can be found here:
NDBC - Chesapeake Bay Recent Marine Data

The four functioning buoys are: CMAN-4, LWSD1, BRND1, and 44009.

Buoy 44054 is not functioning properly.

Bill

11-05-2008, 19:14	#5
btrayfors Senior Cruiser Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Chesapeake Region Boat: 42' Bob Perry sloop, "Born Free" Posts: 1,241	Something very wrong here.... While the news article talks of winds of 40-55 mph winds, and the 57 year old sailor talks of "high seas", the local data buoys tell a very different story. At 2PM on Sat the 10th -- four hours before the capsize -- winds were NNE @ 10 kts. By 8 pm, they were SE @ 3 knots. All four functioning data buoys in the area are in agreement that by 8 pm -- 2 hours after the reported capsize -- winds were very light, and remained so until this afternoon. Current conditions are E @ 20k, gusting 25kts. Historical data from the Cape May data buoy "CMAN4" indicate that at the time of the capsize -- 6PM EDT or 22 hours GMT -- winds were extremely light, with "gusts" to only 4-5 knots. Data readings taken every few minutes during the period in question indicate that the winds never exceeded 10 knots in gusts! Very strange. Very strange that all four buoys in the area are in agreement that winds were very light, while the sailor and the news article tell a very different story. Also, if winds were indeed 40-55 knots, I doubt seriously if the "fishing couple" who picked him up would be venturing out in seas which could be expected after a very strong blow. As for the "10-foot seas", data indicate that wave height was consistently under 5', though the waves were "very steep". What IS certain, however, is that you don't want to be venturing anywhere off the NJ coast tonite or tomorrow, with storm-force winds predicted as this very nasty front blows through. For those who wish to check the buoy data, it can be found here: NDBC - Chesapeake Bay Recent Marine Data The four functioning buoys are: CMAN-4, LWSD1, BRND1, and 44009. Buoy 44054 is not functioning properly. Bill Last edited by btrayfors; 11-05-2008 at 19:45.