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Old 25-09-2010, 02:27   #1
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Hurricane Season - Finishes When ?

Hi Folks,

I am in the Canary Islands waiting to sail to the Caribbean when the Hurricane Season ends.

How do I know when it ends?

Considerations:
  • I will DEFINITLY want to be in the Carib by Christmas.
  • Would like to go ASAP
  • ARC leaves 21st November
  • Passage is at least 3 weeks 2,800nms
(Please note track of Hurricane Lisa! Hurricane LISA )


Thanks



Mark
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Old 25-09-2010, 04:00   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkJ View Post
Hi Folks,

I am in the Canary Islands waiting to sail to the Caribbean when the Hurricane Season ends.

How do I know when it ends?



Considerations:
  • I will DEFINITLY want to be in the Carib by Christmas.
  • Would like to go ASAP
  • ARC leaves 21st November
  • Passage is at least 3 weeks 2,800nms
(Please note track of Hurricane Lisa! Hurricane LISA )


Thanks



Mark
If you were OK with a pitstop in Bermuda you could quite safely leave in a week. If not, wait 2 weeks and leave anyway. Nothing is certain but the hurricane percentages change heaps after September 30.
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Old 25-09-2010, 05:12   #3
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Mark, I think the short answer is you don't know when the season ends. Friends did the ARC 3 or 4 years ago had to divert to the Cape Verdes as a tropical storm turned round mid Atlantic and came back at them and the rest of the ARC fleet.

Do you have a copy of Jimmy Cornells book? sorry just packed mine up as we hope to move house shortly.

Presumably you are going south to 25' 25' or even a bit further to pick up the trades before going West.

I can imagine victualling 220 yachts for the ARC is going to take an awful lot of supplies from Las Palmas, during November, so might be worth avoiding.

Do you have SSB, or even a cheap receiver? also be worth while finding the frequencies and times they are going to use and earwig on the side. I have met Chris their weather guru and read his book, so if you are at sea at the same time that could be useful info.

How about going a week earlier subject to weather, that way you have a 1000 miles on them and if you choose Barbados as a landing point a slightly different route. We like Rodney Bay in St Lucia, but how busy does it get when 220 ARC yachts suddenly turn up for Christmas?

Pete
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Old 25-09-2010, 05:16   #4
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There's a pretty good narrative on this topic here: Tropical Cyclone Climatology. The "official" hurricane season in the Atlantic runs through the end of November, but tropical storms are "normally" pretty scarce after the end of October.

Here's a frequency chart...



The times I've done passages in the SW North Atlantic, we always waited until the first week of November, checked the long range forecasts (that being one week ) and shoved off if everything looked good. From the Canaries, you'll likely be in a position to avoid any late-season storms, since they normally form to the west of your route in November. See the chart below.

Of course, there was the exception, the 2005 season, when four storms formed in November, December, and January, 2006. Here's an excerpt from an article...

Quote:
Tropical activity declined only very slowly as the season wound down. Tropical Storm Gamma initially formed on November 15 in the central Caribbean...

Tropical Storm Delta formed in the eastern Atlantic on November 23; it approached but never attained hurricane strength. Delta became extratropical on the 28th shortly before striking the Canary Islands at full force, causing seven deaths...


Hurricane Epsilon formed as a tropical storm on November 29 in a hostile environment in the middle of the Atlantic. It reached hurricane strength on December 2 and defied forecasting by persisting for over a week before dissipating. Tropical Storm Zeta became the final storm of the season when it formed on December 30, six hours short of tying the record of Hurricane Alice of 1954 as the latest-forming named storm in a season. Zeta dissipated on January 6, 2006, having become the longest-lived January tropical cyclone in Atlantic Basin history.
source: 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

If I were you, I'd leave after the first week of November.
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Old 25-09-2010, 05:35   #5
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Mark

I have done the Canaries to West Indies twice, and both times left just after Nov 1st. At the end of the hurricane season there are very few (if any?, probably some exceptions) hurricanes that starts around the Cape Verde. November Hurricanes tend to be concentrated to the Western Caribbean.

I have just had a look in my old Noaa "Tropical Cyclones of the north Atlantic Ocean , 1871-1992". Some interesting maps at the end of the book showing hurricane tracks related to date.

If we are looking at your route, say Canaries to just NW of Cape Verde to Granada(for example), there is no example of any hurricanes during this period if starting November 1st. Even starting as early as Oct 21 shows just one tropical system starting at about 9N 45W.


If I put my old delivery Captain's cap on, and had to do a delivery starting now, I would aim between African Mainland and the Cape Verde down to 10 N and then head west staying below the same lat until a few hundred miles from Trinidad. This would minimize the exposure.

Next time I do this passage, I'll still leave just after Nov 1st.
Just my opinion and, remember - hurricanes are known to do unexpected things , and don't care at all about statistics.

Thomas
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Old 25-09-2010, 06:16   #6
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The Atlantic hurricane season is officially from June 1 through November 30.
About 5% of all Atlantic tropical storm activity occurs after November 1. On average, one tropical storm forms in November every other year, and we can expect a November hurricane about one year in five.
Major November hurricanes include: Hurricane Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane Lenny of 1999 (Cat 4, 150 mph); Hurricane Kate of 1985 (Cat 3, 120 mph); Hurricane Greta of 1956 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane 10 of 1932 (Cat 4, 135 mph); and Hurricane 7 of 1912 (Cat 3, 115 mph).
There have also been two major hurricanes that formed in October and continued on into November.
There have been no major hurricanes in the months December through April.

See also ➥ TCFAQ G12) What is my chance of having a tropical storm or hurricane strike by each month?
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Old 25-09-2010, 06:37   #7
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The Crossing

Mark, just make sure before you leave the Canaries, that you have some good info/charts of the Cape Verdes. I left Canaries Nov 6 and had so little wind that I decided to pull in there for a few days, luckily the trades picked up about 12hrs before I was due to sight them, but you never know !! Bye the way, if you are becalmed at any time,mid Atlantic, dont forget to[with sails down] jump overboard, its a strrrraaannge feeling!
Good luck, Bruce.
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Old 26-09-2010, 08:05   #8
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da dum

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Bye the way, if you are becalmed at any time,mid Atlantic, dont forget to[with sails down] jump overboard, its a strrrraaannge feeling! Good luck, Bruce.

Good luck indeed. Even a singlehander is never alone.

The head outflow, the garbage ... it's a trail of breadcrumbs...



But you needn't be alone at sea. We had a great white on a local wreck off Beaufort, NC two weeks ago and seen by a boatload of lucky divers.
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Old 26-09-2010, 09:33   #9
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Hurricane Magnet?

Mark,
Didn't you rename your boat "Hurricane Magnet" a while ago?
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Old 26-09-2010, 23:08   #10
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Is anyone forgetting that Bermuda just got hit? I got chased by Erin a few years ago in November, I would wait....
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Old 27-09-2010, 01:40   #11
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Is anyone forgetting that Bermuda just got hit? I got chased by Erin a few years ago in November, I would wait....
I think most folk assumed Mark would go south and pick up the trade winds, afterall he said wanted to go to the Carib for Xmas.

Question is what is he going to do in the Canaries for the next 6 or 7 weeks, well other than pump up his dinghy 4 times a day. Mark how about a swaray to Morocco for a week.

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Old 27-09-2010, 02:40   #12
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. Mark how about a swaray to Morocco for a week.

Pete
No. Definitely not. I have had 12 months in countries of a particular religious persuasion and I will absolutely, definitly not, under any circumstances repeat that foolishness. I woke up at 8am this morning. <--- ask anyone in those sort of countries whats special about that!

Did I mention thet I bought a full leg of cured ham, to whit, Jamon Serrano

I have a new cruising rule never to go to a country where the supermarkets cover less than 1 acre. In France the one acre is just the cheese counter

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Old 27-09-2010, 07:05   #13
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Mark, given that you want to go now, Capt Cagney's post above seems like a good bet. You'd only be waiting 3 weeks overall and be on the move during that. Starting today if you like. And moving away from the ARC activity.

I may have missed a post or thread but I gather you're going for it single handed rather than try to pick up crew. If not, here should be a few traveling sailors in the Canaries, no? I think I'd be considering flying in an experienced friend or acquaintance (maybe on their dime). I know a couple of capable guys who could go and maybe even would go, but you'd have to cover their expenses whereas there may be readers on the forum who would welcome the chance to make the passage at their own expense and fly home from Barbados or wherever. Just something to think about.

Like all readers, I look forward to hearing how it works out.
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Old 27-09-2010, 07:44   #14
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Is anyone forgetting that Bermuda just got hit? I got chased by Erin a few years ago in November, I would wait....
November ? ? ?

You sure ?
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Old 27-09-2010, 08:05   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgzzzz View Post
Starting today if you like. And moving away from the ARC activity.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgzzzz View Post


Like all readers, I look forward to hearing how it works out.


Thanks

I don't want to move away from the ARC activity at all.
I'm on the pick outside the marina (and use the marina) that the ARC starts from. I will be here most of the time till they go. I will go close to before, or after the ARC.

I am heading direct to St Martin so will not be tracking south at all. infact my first course on my Great Circle Route is 168 deg - due west. The pilot and gribs look fine for that. I don't need full trades to make that work with my boat and I don't need to be at sea for the shortest time.

Further, I have previously sailed to Cape Verde Islands and all the islands in the Canaries group, and with my dinghy problems (it likes to sink) I am thinking of a nice relaxing month, or so, here.

The good thing about bumping into the ARC mob is its 250 boats that I will be bumping into in the Caribbean anyway, so may as well meet them now. They I will know who I can rely on for nice dinner invitations in the next year!

The reason for this post is to see if there is a clear way they determine if the Hurricane Season is over.

In Australia, I believe, once the water temperature is 23 degrees or below (C not F) then a Cyclone (Hurricane) can not form.
I know this area is a bit different and there are things called Waves that I don't understand. This wave activity starts west of Cape Verde Islands and must be associated with water temp and other conditions.

It would be nice to be able to check all the indicators are safe before heading out, notwithstanding when the ARC goes
(OK I know people will say you can get them 13 months of the year, but I mean 'safe' as is as safe as humanly possible to predict given a responsible cost benefit analysis



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