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Old 27-09-2010, 08:16   #16
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water temps

Mark -

You might want to try an email to the folks at noaa about the water temps necessary to sustain a cyclonic storm. I imagine the answer would be some sort of vague just because of the huge amount of water they travel across as the form and intensify. Interesting approach to the question though -- please keep us informed if you learn more!

Personally, I like HUD's chart above. Looks to me like Nov 10 is a pretty darn safe bet.

-M
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Old 27-09-2010, 09:02   #17
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my first course on my Great Circle Route is 168 deg - due west. Mark
Are you sure? sandhills and camels in that direction.

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Old 27-09-2010, 09:09   #18
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... In Australia, I believe, once the water temperature is 23 degrees or below (C not F) then a Cyclone (Hurricane) can not form...
Hurricanes form in the tropics, because they require warm water and moist warm air.
Water temperatures of about 26.5C (80 F) cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms.

See ➥ TCFAQ A16) Why do tropical cyclones require 80F (26.5C) ocean temperatures to form ?

“... In 1948 Erik Palmen observed that tropical cyclones required ocean temperatures of at least 80F (26.5C) for their formation and growth. Later work (e.g., Gray 1979) also pointed out the need for this warm water to be present through a relatively deep layer (~150 ft, 50 m) of the ocean. This 80F value is tied to the instability of the atmosphere in the tropical and subtropical latitudes. Above this temperature deep convection can occur, but below this value the atmosphere is too stable and little to no thunderstorm activity can be found ...”

See also ➥ Increased Hurricane Activity Linked To Sea Surface Warming
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Old 27-09-2010, 09:11   #19
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The reason for this post is to see if there is a clear way they determine if the Hurricane Season is over.

In Australia, I believe, once the water temperature is 23 degrees or below (C not F) then a Cyclone (Hurricane) can not form.
I know this area is a bit different and there are things called Waves that I don't understand. This wave activity starts west of Cape Verde Islands and must be associated with water temp and other conditions.
Gosh, Mark, if you're going to stay put until 23 degrees you may have to wait until Easter. I understand that tropical cyclones require a water temperature of at least 26.5 degrees (C) down to a depth of 50 meters. My source for this is the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, found here: TCFAQ A15) How do tropical cyclones form ?

Maybe sit tight until at least Halloween?
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Old 27-09-2010, 09:42   #20
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No. Definitely not. I have had 12 months in countries of a particular religious persuasion and I will absolutely, definitly not, under any circumstances repeat that foolishness. I woke up at 8am this morning. <--- ask anyone in those sort of countries whats special about that!
MarkJ, I think I know what you mean. My husband and I were in Istanbul last week. The 'Call to Prayer' is a great addition to the atmosphere the first few times you hear it and for a few days. I can't imagine hearing it all the time day after day after day.

K
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Old 27-09-2010, 10:39   #21
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Tropical Weather : Weather Underground
Interesting discussion and a bunch of links to other forecasts and data.
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Old 27-09-2010, 10:59   #22
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Tropical Weather : Weather Underground
Interesting discussion and a bunch of links to other forecasts and data.
Thanky

Has a link to this one


So I just wait till Orange Colour #345 marked by that black line and splash in
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