You might want to try an email
to the folks at noaa about the water
temps necessary to sustain a cyclonic storm. I imagine the answer would be some sort of vague just because of the huge amount of water
they travel across as the form and intensify. Interesting approach to the question though -- please keep us informed if you learn more!
Personally, I like HUD's chart above. Looks to me like Nov 10 is a pretty darn safe bet.