Hurricane Season 2009

[Ocean Girl]

Don't know if this is the right place for a weather thread. I am really rusty about reading weather, here is the latest disturbance
Per Noaa:

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Anyone with extensive weather knowledge think this is going to be an issue.

[camaraderie]

Winds forecast is for not more than 25 knots through the week so I think they are just playing it safe by showing it and advising folks to pay attention for possible later development.

[Ocean Girl]

These systems usually start out with the yellow "Low Potential" label, But this thing is about to head out into the warm waters of the gulf, I was wondering if there was any weather systems north of this thing that will keep it from thriving in the gulf.
Sorry if I'm being thick about this, I used to be able to read a weather map, and get a good idea if the system will get pushed inland, or hang out in the gulf. I am going to take a "weather" class as soon as I find one, but until then I thought you guys would be a good source.
Thanks for your input,
Erika

[Randy]

Right now there's a front moving through the central US that will be directing that systems movement I think, holding it from moving directly north and sliding it to the east.
Let's see if it actually happens like that. Easy for me to say being in San Diego.

[Ocean Girl]

Thanks Camaraderie and Randy,
Why they don't expect it to strengthen-that is what I was trying to find out. Easting is not a good sign to me but anyways, Sorry, I asked a convoluted question or rather the wrong question.
Thanks guys,
Erika

[Randy]

There's other issues I'm not really up on like upper level air flow that can create shearing disallowing the accumulation of the towering thunderstorms that congregate en mass to form tropical storms then possibly hurricanes.

You might google hurricane development

[mesquaukee]

Check out Jeff Masters blog at wunderground. Wunder Blog : Weather Underground
He is seldom if ever wrong. He explains things very well.

[Hud3]

I'm with mesquaukee. Whenever there's a potential tropical storm in the offing, I check out the Wunderground Tropical Weather site.

They start tracking when a tropical weather feature is designated as an "Invest" by the NHC. Then they'll post links giving you access to various information, including model forecasts. Here's a link to the current Invest 93; model results (shown below). It's a very useful weather tool, and Jeff Masters' analyses are usually very accurate.

[mesquaukee]

I’m new here and I don’t know if this is the right place to put all this info but here it is.
If you are planning a trip and want to know what the wind might be like try
www.windfinder.com/forecasts/wind_caribbean168.htm You can get forecasts up to 1 week if you are willing to trust them. You must be at least 60 miles from land for the forecast to be valid. Within 60 miles you get a lot of shore effect.
If you access NOAA’s radiofax charts on the internet and are tired of downloading one chart at a time you can download the whole package at www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/swatlanticbrief.shtml it saves a lot of time.
If you want to see what is happening out there you can get real time buoy data at www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ just click on a buoy and you get the current and historical conditions.
There is a database at www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/ for historical hurricane tracks. If you want to or have to be out cruising during the hurricane season it is good to know when and where hurricanes form and the characteristics of their tracks. For example south of Stan Creek in Belize there has been only one hurricane in 30 years. That hurricane and the ones that strikes just north of there form far out and track in a straight line. You might have a depression form in that region that then slides over the Yucatan and then develops into something big.
To me it’s kind of interesting as I am stuck in Cancun till the end of August before I can get moving south.