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28-12-2015, 17:11
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#556
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 3,604
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
2,244,000 sharks killed since this thread started. How many more have to die before you guys figure this global warming business out? Just askin.
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28-12-2015, 17:14
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#557
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Marine Service Provider
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: La Paz, Mexico
Boat: 1978 Hudson Force 50 Ketch
Posts: 3,920
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Quote:
Originally Posted by Delancey
2,112,000 sharks killed since this thread started. How many more have to die before you guys figure this global warming business out? Just askin.
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Bingo...
Focus on what Matters!
__________________
Rich Boren
Cruise RO & Schenker Water Makers
Technautics CoolBlue Refrigeration
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28-12-2015, 17:16
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#558
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Marine Service Provider
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: La Paz, Mexico
Boat: 1978 Hudson Force 50 Ketch
Posts: 3,920
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale
Rich uses a gold market shill's web site for his science.
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Same old attack the Messenger when you can't debate the issue.
Denier....
Gold Shill...
What next...Racist?
These Eco Imperialists are all the same, but they are fun to watch blow a blood vessel.
Oh and the Blaze.
It's only the No 2 most popular website for Political news and if you think MMGW isn't political...ha ha ha, put down the Bong and exhale.
http://www.ebizmba.com/articles/political-websites
__________________
Rich Boren
Cruise RO & Schenker Water Makers
Technautics CoolBlue Refrigeration
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28-12-2015, 17:18
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#559
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 3,604
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Had to check my math. It's been eight days and twelve hours since the thread started. That 2,244,000 number is based on 11,000 per hour which is a little low by some estimates.
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28-12-2015, 17:38
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#560
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,252
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM
Or to put it another way. The only real issues are:
1. Are the model predictions of the warming resulting from human CO2 emissions accurate (i.e. what is the real Climate Sensitivity to CO2 and the associated feedbacks) since these are what drives the whole scare.
2. How significant is that climate sensitivity compared to natural climate variability?
3. how catastrophic would a possible 2-3 degree change in global average temperatures really be?
Given that :
1. the last 20 years has proven that the answer to Question 1 is a resounding "NO"
2. No one knows the answer to the second question and if the answer is "insignificant" we could just as easily be facing future cooling.
3. No one knows the answer to the third question, but it is fairly certain than warming of that extent would be better than cooling so a lot depends on No 2.
the big question is whether the proposed draconian solutions are in the best interests of mankind.
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1. 20 years of warming using UAH satellite data.
All other questions are moot.
__________________
CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
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28-12-2015, 17:52
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#561
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2003
Boat: Dragonfly 1000 trimaran
Posts: 7,145
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale
Rich uses a gold market shill's web site for his science.
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Over the last several years, Glenn Beck has been 100% right about ISIS and the rise of the caliphate.
Chris Mattews called him "loony tunes" for that prediction.
Not everybody buys your flaming GW stuff, and we all know you can sail.
You don't need to keep advertising it in your signature.
__________________
The question is not, "Who will let me?"
The question is,"Who is going to stop me?"
Ayn Rand
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28-12-2015, 17:53
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#562
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Senior Cruiser
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: puget sound washington
Boat: 1968 Islander bahama 24 hull 182, 1963 columbia 29 defender. hull # 60
Posts: 12,121
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Here is a neat little chart from a reputable source shows lots more snow than normal for today in the northern hemisphere. Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab
But the planet is warming as the mmgw types say significantly warming
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28-12-2015, 17:56
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#563
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,252
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Quote:
Originally Posted by senormechanico
Not everybody buys your flaming GW stuff, and we all know you can sail.
You don't need to keep advertising it in your signature.
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No science academy on the planet disputes the conclusions of the IPCC.
Sorry if my signature annoys you - ignore it.
__________________
CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
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28-12-2015, 18:00
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#564
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,252
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul
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All of which were forecast by those pesky models.
https://opensnow.com/news/post/el-ni...016-ski-season
__________________
CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
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28-12-2015, 18:08
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#565
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: SF Bay Area
Boat: Islander 34
Posts: 5,486
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale
1. 20 years of warming using UAH satellite data.
All other questions are moot.
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Ah, if you plot from 2000 to 2014 there actually has not been any warming, and perhaps a slight overall cooling trend. From WFT site....
So the question is where is the warming after 2000. While co2 has risen 30ppm or 0.003 % since the late 90's we have not seen a corresponding rise in global temperature, which the model predicted.
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28-12-2015, 18:14
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#566
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,252
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Quote:
Originally Posted by sailorchic34
Ah, if you plot from 2000 to 2014 there actually has not been any warming, and perhaps a slight overall cooling trend. From WFT site....
So the question is where is the warming after 2000. While co2 has risen 30ppm or 0.003 % since the late 90's we have not seen a corresponding rise in global temperature, which the model predicted.
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StuM said 20 years, I gave him 20 years.
You are cherry picking dates.
The WMO standard for climate is 30 years, which is even steeper.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah...m:1984/to:2014
As to the "hiatus", read some science
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v.../ngeo2105.html
The Recent Slowing in the Rise of Global Temperatures | Remote Sensing Systems
__________________
CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
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28-12-2015, 18:29
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#567
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Aboard the Ocean wave
Boat: 55' sloop.
Posts: 1,426
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect
What proposed draconian solutions, specifically?
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Well… there are these for a start.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...eering_schemes
This is indeed something that I am worried about, as I feel that a bigscale tech "solution" may well just be one more animal swallowed by the old woman who swallowed a fly…
__________________
‘Structural engineering is the art of modeling materials we do not wholly understand into shapes we cannot precisely analyse as to withstand forces we cannot properly assess in such a way that the public at large has no reason to suspect the extent of our ignorance.’
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28-12-2015, 18:30
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#568
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 5,607
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Originally Posted by StuM:
Or to put it another way. The only real issues are:
1. Are the model predictions of the warming resulting from human CO2 emissions accurate (i.e. what is the real Climate Sensitivity to CO2 and the associated feedbacks) since these are what drives the whole scare.
2. How significant is that climate sensitivity compared to natural climate variability?
3. how catastrophic would a possible 2-3 degree change in global average temperatures really be?
Given that :
1. the last 20 years has proven that the answer to Question 1 is a resounding "NO"
2. No one knows the answer to the second question and if the answer is "insignificant" we could just as easily be facing future cooling.
3. No one knows the answer to the third question, but it is fairly certain than warming of that extent would be better than cooling so a lot depends on No 2.
the big question is whether the proposed draconian solutions are in the best interests of mankind.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale
1. 20 years of warming using UAH satellite data.
All other questions are moot.
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And if you plot the entire 20 years, it looks like somewhere b'twn. a 0.2-0.3 degree difference (celsius, I assume). That may answer #1 in and of itself, and renders Stu's remaining two questions hardly "moot."
If this difference (depending on what year you plot from) is consistent with a natural, non-man made trend, then there's probably nothing we can or should do to try and influence it. That's directly relevant to question #2.
Regardless of whether the temp difference is caused by humans or not, whether the change is inconsequential, mild, severe, or catastrophic will have to inform our actions, whether they be prevention, mitigation, recovery, or rehabilitation. That's directly relevant to #3.
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28-12-2015, 18:33
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#569
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,252
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Exlie - the natural forcings (Milankovitch cycles, solar activity, etc.) should point to cooling. There is no cooling.
Solar scientists, such as Mike Lockwood and the Stanford Solar Center , has indicated that human activities have overwhelmed natural cycles.
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CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
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28-12-2015, 18:37
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#570
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,252
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years
Here is the RSS data.
No single data point from 1994 to the present is below the mean. Above average temperatures are warmer.
__________________
CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
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