Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

And yet last year they said we were in an el nino year and didn't get hardly any snow. They claimed it was due to El Nino. Now 6 plus feet in last two weeks is due to it. I just call it weather.

Last year was not an El Nino year.

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data: ENSO Impacts on the U.S. - Previous Events

Who is they?

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by transmitterdan

The point of the article linked in the OP is getting missed by most of us in this thread. The point is that there is a huge variable that almost no climate model is taking into account. Human ingenuity is a pretty awesome thing. And to date no one has been able to predict what technology would be like in 20 or 100 years. It is naive to think that the next 20-100 years will not produce technology that seems inconceivable today. There is absolutely no reason, based on past history, to predict that the world will devolve into a "Water-World" or "Mad Max" scenario. To the contrary, human history has a many thousands year track record of improving living conditions through innovation and most importantly education. It takes a very warped view of humanity to think that will not continue whatever the climate does (or does not do).

Wishful thinking does not substitute to be pro-active.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by socaldmax

This is the kind of simple minded propaganda that Al Gore and others keep spewing.

The fact is, solar output is the strongest factor affecting global temperatures. They follow a roughly 11 yr cycle. With no heat from the sun, we'd be a dead planet. If you plot global temperatures for the last 2,000 yrs, they closely follow solar output, not CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

The does provide most of the energy for earth, bit solar variability, about 0.1%, is insignificant in climate change.


From the Stanford Solar Center:

During the initial discovery period of global climate change, the magnitude of the influence of the Sun on Earth's climate was not well understood. Since the early 1990s, however, extensive research was put into determining what role, if any, the Sun has in global warming or climate change.

A recent review paper, put together by both solar and climate scientists, details these studies: Solar Influences on Climate. Their bottom line: though the Sun may play some small role, "it is nevertheless much smaller than the estimated radiative forcing due to anthropogenic changes." That is, human activities are the primary factor in global climate change.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Exile

Rules??

I did take you for someone with an open mind on this, but this last set of responses, and even avoiding a hypothetical question, has the definite whiff of committed anti-AGW.

Sorry to have bothered you.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by socaldmax

Now think about the millions of tons of ash and gasses ejected from the 1500 active volcanoes around the world. That stays in the upper atmosphere for years - we saw evidence of dust still in the upper atmosphere 3 or 4 yrs after Mt Pinatubo erupted.

Volcanic activity has a short-term cooling effect.



As for gases, humans emit 135 times more CO2 than all volcanic activity.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Exile

Not exactly sure where Big Oil falls on this spectrum, but it doesn't surprise me that their shareholders would want to advocate, at a minimum, against some of the additional taxes & regulations threatening to be imposed on them by the more zealous advocates on the other side. Whether those efforts are ultimately successful or not will depend on public policy.

Steve Williams, the CEO of Suncor, favours a carbon tax.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Exile

Or just never worries about it like my father! Cigarettes, meat & potatoes almost every day of his adult life. Probably just good genetics . . . I hope.

My mother, a smoker, died of lung cancer. I am glad I quit 43 years ago.

Genetics does play a role in our health. My background is great cholesterol readings, low pressure and a low pulse rate.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Resource use is rich developed world's issue. Both need to come down. Interestingly and ironically, the population part is being addressed, but we in the rich developed world show no signs of changing our ways. We keep using more and more.

I respectfully disagree with many of the opinions expressed in your otherwise well-articulated post, but no sense rehashing. I do think the bolded part of your comments above may be at least partially incorrect, however. In the US anyway, there has been a lot progress in reducing pollution over the past quarter century, thanks in part to passage of the Clean Air & Clean Water Acts. GDP has been pretty stagnant for awhile now, fuel efficiency for cars is way up, and US oil consumption is down. Mainly due to lousy & chronic economic conditions, Americans overall have been living with less. The focus now --pollution-wise & consumption-wise -- seems to be more on China, India, and other parts of the quickly developing world.

I fully agree . He's a troublemaker .

Now THIS we can agree on! And whodathunk this thread would have such legs! I guess that's a good thing. Agree or disagree, at least people are thinking about the issues.

[chadc]

It's entertaining, and sad, when people start blaming a political party for what naturally happens from time to time on the planet, It's a natural occurrence not the result of a political party.


The Earth warms up glacier ice melts currents change the Earth cools down glaciers reform, repeat.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

I did take you for someone with an open mind on this, but this last set of responses, and even avoiding a hypothetical question, has the definite whiff of committed anti-AGW.

Sorry to have bothered you.

Not a problem! And you have quite a bit more than just a whiff of committed AGW. Again, not a problem. It's a complex area with lots of nuances from many different disciplines, political inclinations, and human fallibility. Reasonable, even intelligent minds, can and do differ.

[Sun and Moon]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Here's an interesting article on the subject of Climate Change and Global Warming, and why all the talk and worry won't matter in 20 years... and will matter even less in 100 years.

Climate Change Predictions

That article is more full of S**T than most CF posts! I think Delancey got it right.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Exile

Not a problem! And you have quite a bit more than just a whiff of committed AGW. Again, not a problem. It's a complex area with lots of nuances from many different disciplines, political inclinations, and human fallibility. Reasonable, even intelligent minds, can and do differ.

I'm convinced because the climate scientists are convinced. If your position requires you to reject what the overwhelming majority of subject-matter experts have said, after it's passed full scientific deliberation, peer reviews, outside reviews, etc, you need to own that, and the implications of it.

There's nothing complex or nuanced about that part. There isn't a genuine scientific debate about the finding of AGW, just one between advocates for and against. Only one of those positions has the science behind it.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Exile

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly View Post
Resource use is rich developed world's issue. Both need to come down. Interestingly and ironically, the population part is being addressed, but we in the rich developed world show no signs of changing our ways. We keep using more and more.

I respectfully disagree with many of the opinions expressed in your otherwise well-articulated post, but no sense rehashing. I do think the bolded part of your comments above may be at least partially incorrect, however. In the US anyway, there has been a lot progress in reducing pollution over the past quarter century, thanks in part to passage of the Clean Air & Clean Water Acts. GDP has been pretty stagnant for awhile now, fuel efficiency for cars is way up, and US oil consumption is down. Mainly due to lousy & chronic economic conditions, Americans overall have been living with less. The focus now --pollution-wise & consumption-wise -- seems to be more on China, India, and other parts of the quickly developing world.

It's absolutely true that there have been great strides made is reducing some pollutants. Our vehicles are vastly more efficient than they were decades ago, and many local water and air ways are cleaner now than they were in the 1970s/80s. Of course this just means we now buy more cars, have bigger houses, and more stuff. It's the Jevons paradox in action.

However, I was not referring to local pollution levels, but in overall resource usage. We in the rich developed world use a lot, and it continual increases. There was a brief reversal during the 2008 crash, but that quickly reversed itself. The trend continues upward.

My point in raising this is that you often read that the problem is overpopulation, and luckily that's not our problem. "It's those folks, over there who are having too many babies. They're to blame!" The real issue is unsustainable use of planetary resources. Population numbers drive this, but so does simple intensity of use. Population is expected to peak by mid to late 21st century, but our use of resources/capita keeps going up. And as countries like China and India transition into the "developed" club, they are following the same path.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/F...per_Capita.png

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Last year was not an El Nino year.

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data: ENSO Impacts on the U.S. - Previous Events

Who is they?

Back in the end months of 2013 they were saying 2014 would be an El Nino year. But by the time 2014 arrived I was to busy with major family issues ( mother died and moving dad closer to me ) to really care what the weather was actually doing until we had the really dry summer we had this year. Now back to normal wet lowlands and snow in the mountains.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Back in the end months of 2013 they were saying 2014 would be an El Nino year. But by the time 2014 arrived I was to busy with major family issues ( mother died and moving dad closer to me ) to really care what the weather was actually doing until we had the really dry summer we had this year. Now back to normal wet lowlands and snow in the mountains.

I still do do not know who they are.

From

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
5 December 2013

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014.

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion