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Old 20-12-2015, 13:27   #91
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
When the pigs threaten to eat up all the corn, the farmer needs to put up a fence or two.
"Fences won't go up.
Corn will soon be all eaten.
Pigs will dine on pigs."

Thank you for indulging me my morning Haiku.
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Old 20-12-2015, 13:31   #92
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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why is it folks need to play a party politix card with such topics as the changing climate?
Because that is what the political parties have taught them to do.
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Old 20-12-2015, 13:53   #93
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

[UnOTE=Canibul;1992616]Same "advanced world" that was convinced the earth was flat? And the Center of the Universe? Same "advanced world" that was sure tomatoes were deadly poison?


The climate changes. Always has. Always will. Spending billions of tax dollars to come to the conclusion that climate changes is pretty much a massive scam. Pick up a textbook from any geology class, any time in history. Go to the Appendix. Look up "ice age". Then try "thaw".

These are climate changes.

Geology students have knows this for a few hundred years. Amazing that uninformed people are astonished to learn this well established and long understood fact.

Lord help us if they ever look up and discover clouds.[/QUOTE]

I choose to believe scientist when it comes to a scientific Matter, when it comes to political matter then I will talk to the politicians. the fact that you compare what we knew in the 15th century to what we know in the 21st century ,Confirms my belief that we really have no basis for a conversation. I would like to wish you and your family a safe and happy holiday season
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Old 20-12-2015, 14:20   #94
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Because that is what the political parties have taught them to do.
divisiveness is a political tool yes.
most people donot seem to realize this simple fact.
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Old 20-12-2015, 15:53   #95
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Although the most intellegent (and that is debatable) of the life forms.... .
LOL, what irony!
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Old 20-12-2015, 16:58   #96
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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In all fairness to Ken I brought up the subject of guns.

Mainly because I was thinking about how, as essential natural resources become more scarce over the next twenty years, the likelihood of armed conflict across the globe will naturally increase and our chances of surviving the next twenty years will of course naturally decrease.

Because you know, humans aren't capable of changing our environment. Only nature can do that, naturally.
Ah yes, the next terrorist who goes to trial will invoke the "global-warming-made-me-do-it" defense. Becoming a pretty mainstream talking point for those trying to cultivate a presidential "legacy," win back majorities in the US Congress, excuse the failure to confront terrorism, and sell more copies of the NY Times. Of course there always has to be a "problem" for our "leaders" to find a solution.

I'm no climatologist and not even a scientist, and so am incapable of rendering an opinion that I could credibly back up. I am bothered, however, that the small percentage of scientists who reject the mainstream view are denied funding & career advancement, are often shunned by their peers & colleagues, and even ridiculed by major politicians & the media. A "Denier," after all, was a term reserved for those who denied events such as the Holocaust & the cause of the collapse of the twin towers on 9/11, i.e. historical fact as opposed to what is still scientific theory (no matter how many laymen are convinced it's fact).

I am also generally dubious of any issue -- especially one that can only be resolved by science -- becoming so heavily politicized. There are too many careers on the line, both in the political theater and scientific community. And btw, isn't shunning the opposing view antithetical to the scientific method? And another btw, if the proponents are so convinced, then why all the shunning of the opposite view? As someone already pointed out, the development of scientific theory is not a democratic process, and we already know how difficult it can be to resist conformity. The Cult Of Likabilty.

I thought the larger point of the article Ken posted was that every era has had its doomsayers & soothsayers, all professing to foretell the future and having the ability to influence the outcome. As the article also points out, our current era is no different, but people of every era will always have enough hubris & arrogance to think that "this time" it's different. I'm not qualified to form an opinion either way, but I'm skeptical and becoming more & more cynical by the day.
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Old 20-12-2015, 17:03   #97
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by zeehag View Post
divisiveness is a political tool yes.
most people donot seem to realize this simple fact.
Divide and conquer was the mantra of the English as they built their colonial empire. It does work.
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Old 20-12-2015, 17:37   #98
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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I thought the larger point of the article Ken posted was that every era has had its doomsayers & soothsayers, all professing to foretell the future and having the ability to influence the outcome. As the article also points out, our current era is no different, but people of every era will always have enough hubris & arrogance to think that "this time" it's different. I'm not qualified to form an opinion either way, but I'm skeptical and becoming more & more cynical by the day.
Always room, in just about everything, for honest doubt and skepticism.

I read all your points. There are those who have paid handsomely to make sure we've all seen them, often.

In point-form I believe these are the main ones you raise:
  • dissenting scientists slapped down
  • majority of climate scientists bowing to conformity

I don't think it's been shown that all, or even most scientists who happen to oppose the IPCC finding of AGW have suffered materially. A handful, sure, including some who have been outed as opinions-for-hire.

Here's the big problem: in order for all these various and sundry arguments against the consensus towards AGW to amount to a logical conclusion, you first have to somehow accept that the overwhelming number (90%+) of climate scientists would willfully suppress their ability, training, professionalism and instincts to go along with something that they know hasn't been adequately investigated and proven. And that all of their own professional and scientific institutions are in on the con. As well as the other scientists and their professional and scientific associations who have reviewed the finding and judged them to have been arrived-at using proper scientific procedures and reasoning.

That's patently irrational. I haven't found any argument or combination from the anti-AGW camp that can make it past this point.
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Old 20-12-2015, 17:48   #99
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Divide and conquer was the mantra of the English as they built their colonial empire. It does work.
Divide and con is the mantra of the tobacco science / climate science denialists. That it works is evidenced here.
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Old 20-12-2015, 17:55   #100
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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I am bothered, however, that the small percentage of scientists who reject the mainstream view are denied funding & career advancement, are often shunned by their peers & colleagues, and even ridiculed by major politicians & the media.
The Cornwall Alliance Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming uses the term "deny" repeatedly. Two of the signatories: Roy Spencer and John Christy, who produce the satellite data from the University of Alabama, Huntsville get all of their funding from NOAA, NASA and DOE.

Richard Lindzen, professor emeritus from MIT and well known skeptic, got over $3,000,000 in funding from the National Science Foundation during his career.

I think you are bothered by a myth.
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Old 20-12-2015, 17:57   #101
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Ah yes, the next terrorist who goes to trial will invoke the "global-warming-made-me-do-it" defense.
Not sure how you get this from what I said.

We live on a planet with finite resources and the human population is exploding. Violence, naked force, has settled more issues than any other factor in human history.

As the population continues to grow, more wars will continue to be fought to control the planet's resources and more people will die as a consequence.

Global warming has nothing to do with it. No more so than Gulf War I was about teaching Saddam a lesson or Gulf War II was about going after the ex-goat herders who destroyed the Trade Towers.

As the title of the thread says, climate change won't matter in 20 years.
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Old 20-12-2015, 18:00   #102
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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And btw, isn't shunning the opposing view antithetical to the scientific method? And another btw, if the proponents are so convinced, then why all the shunning of the opposite view?
What shunning?

When American Physical Society was reviewing their climate change policy they conducted a seminar with Judith Curry, John Christy and Richard Lindzen, skeptics all; and Ben Santer, Issac Held and William Collins, warmists all.

Climate Change Statement Review
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Old 20-12-2015, 18:05   #103
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Divide and conquer was the mantra of the English as they built their colonial empire. It does work.
Sounds like the mantra of the US Senate!
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Old 20-12-2015, 18:13   #104
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Yes. That period began over 500 million years ago. The earth was a very different place at that time. There were life forms that existed then that could tolerate such conditions. (life is found today in deep ocean volcanic vents).
Humans have existed in a very small window of the phanerozoic era (the last 2 million years or less). Humans developed during a time when CO2 had dropped to very low levels (below 300 PPM).
Although the most intellegent (and that is debatable) of the life forms that have lived on this planet, humans are by far one of the more fragile.
So, you may be correct about average CO2 during this era. However you are talking about an average over a half a billion year time frame 99.5% of which could not have supported human life.
CO2 levels have remained constant on average at 250PPM levels during man's 2 million years on the planet with dramatic increases found in the last 100 years to a present level around 400PPM.
Attached image from NASA report on global climate change.
I am very unimpressed by this typical argument. Humans are not "the most fragile" orgainisms on this planet!!! We are the most robustly adaptable animals ever to have existed on this planet, bar none! The old canard that we will die out long before most others will totally ignores our exogenous adaptability. We have survived on the MOON, in deep cold water under the ice caps for MONTHS, in every environment on the planet… really this is a very poor argument. Also the appeal to the early Cambrian as being "very different" etc. misses the fact that the majority of the phanerozoic was not radically different, and we certainly could have survived during at least 400 of the 500 million years life flourished in atmospheric CO2 mixes vastly richer than they currently are.

Do I think this is an argument for complacency? No I do not. I do feel that we should pay attention to our changing of planetary atmposphere… however it is undeniable both that climate has naturally and rapidly (far more rapidly!) changed in the period when humans have indeed been around (glaciations, deglaciations) and it is also true that the overwhelming majority of the period of complex life on earth has involved atmospheric CO2 levels dramatically higher than present ones. Interestingly for those who say that all coral reefs will be destroyed by Ocean acidification if it increases just a little more, this includes periods wherein the atmospheric CO2 was hundreds of percent higher, and reefs flourished all over the Earth…

So yes, I think it is something we need to pay attention to> I think it is important, but is it important enough to put the vast majority of our efforts towards, ignoring overfishing, deforestation etc etc? Because we ARE ignoring those things. There is essentially close to zero interdiction or international pressure on those issues. Everything right now is focussed on use of fossil fuels. To me it smacks a bit too much of fiddling while Rome burns.
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Old 20-12-2015, 18:36   #105
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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I'm no climatologist and not even a scientist, and so am incapable of rendering an opinion that I could credibly back up. I am bothered, however, that the small percentage of scientists who reject the mainstream view are denied funding & career advancement, are often shunned by their peers & colleagues, and even ridiculed by major politicians & the media.
Science is a process. It's not a thing, or an institution, or anything you can point at. It is a process of discovering contingent truths about the phenomena being studied. Part of this process is lively debate, challenge of research, and active scepticism regarding any findings. As evidence grows for a particular contingent truth, scepticism becomes more muted. At some point the weight of evidence and supporting theory results in a scientific consensus.

This is where the scientific community is at with the climate change question. There is an overwhelming consensus regarding the question of rapid climate change. There is a lesser, but very strong consensus emerging that human civilization is either a principle driver, or a significant contributor. But this question is still being actively investigated.

Climate change deniers are in the category of those who don't accept evolution, or are opposed to vaccinations. Yes, there are people you can find with PhDs who will support these outlier positions, but the overwhelming evidence has resulted in a scientific consensus that allows research to move forward.

So yes, it likely is harder to get a research project funded that questions the consensus view on climate change, just like it would be hard to get a funding agency to support research questioning the fundamentals of evolution. Yes, sometime the consensus view is shown to be wrong, but rarely has this happened in the annals of modern science. That's b/c science is a process that despite all our human foibles, despite the backslides and politicization, inexorably drives to improved contingent truths.

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I am also generally dubious of any issue -- especially one that can only be resolved by science -- becoming so heavily politicized. There are too many careers on the line, both in the political theater and scientific community.
And well you should be dubious. Just follow the money. The funders and supporters of the anti-consensus view are almost universally those with a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. Just like in the debates around tobacco, those with a vested interest know what the science says, so the only way they can keep their financial gravy train rolling is to politicize the issue. So yes, you should be dubious of all this faux debate.
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