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Old 28-12-2015, 19:45   #571
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
1. 20 years of warming using UAH satellite data.



All other questions are moot.
0.2 degrees in 20 years. Or 1 degree per Century. For lower troposphere, which according to the models should be warming faster than the surface.

Compare that to model projections of 0.6 degrees in the same period (or 3 degrees per Century).

Which confirms my point. I repeat:

1. Are the model predictions of the warming resulting from human CO2 emissions accurate
1. the last 20 years has proven that the answer to Question 1 is a resounding "NO"
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Old 28-12-2015, 19:53   #572
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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0.2 degrees in 20 years. Or 1 degree per Century. For lower troposphere, which according to the models should be warming faster than the surface.

Compare that to model projections of 0.6 degrees in the same period (or 3 degrees per Century).

Which confirms my point. I repeat:

1. Are the model predictions of the warming resulting from human CO2 emissions accurate
1. the last 20 years has proven that the answer to Question 1 is a resounding "NO"
That graph from Spencer and Christy has been well critiqued and found wanting.



HotWhopper: Roy Spencer's latest deceit and deception

Meanwhile



http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/co...-observations/
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Old 28-12-2015, 19:55   #573
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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No science academy on the planet disputes the conclusions of the IPCC.

No science academy that I am aware of disputes that the earth is flat or that the sun revolves around the earth.

Which is a looong way from establishing that the majority of members of those science academies agree with those conclusions.

(Although the "consensus" claimers frequently state or imply this to be so).
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Old 28-12-2015, 19:59   #574
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Here is the RSS data.



No single data point from 1994 to the present is below the mean. Above average temperatures are warmer.
OK, but I take it that 1850-1993 established that mean? If I remember correctly, we have simulated estimates from 1850 to about 1950, and actual measurements thereafter. Was there a corresponding increase in CO2 from 1994 to the present which correlates to your chart's above avg. temps?

This all gets back to the critical issues Stu just listed. If you accept as scientific fact that there is a warming trend, then you next have to determine whether it's human caused. If you get past those two inquiries, then you have to figure out the severity of the warming and its impact on the environment before you can convince anyone that the various solutions that have been proposed have any merit, and/or are worth the cost. I don't understand why you seem to suggest stopping the inquiry at whether there's been a warming trend over (x) no. of years. Hasn't the planet always been in a either a warming or a cooling trend, with the only variable the amount of stability or instability while undergoing that trend?
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Old 28-12-2015, 20:01   #575
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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No science academy that I am aware of disputes that the earth is flat or that the sun revolves around the earth.

Which is a looong way from establishing that the majority of members of those science academies agree with those conclusions.

(Although the "consensus" claimers frequently state or imply this to be so).
There are individual biologists who reject natural selection.

What science academy executive has been turfed for its views on climate change?

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Old 28-12-2015, 20:01   #576
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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2,244,000 sharks killed since this thread started. How many more have to die before you guys figure this global warming business out? Just askin.
Don't look at me, I ordered the salad.

Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM
No science academy that I am aware of disputes that the earth is flat or that the sun revolves around the earth.

Which is a looong way from establishing that the majority of members of those science academies agree with those conclusions.
This answer is possibly more inane than the straight-up trolling...

Stu, if you can somehow counter the more than ample proof, linked by Jackdale and others, that indeed "the majority of members of those science academies agree with those conclusions" would you please get on with it?
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Old 28-12-2015, 20:04   #577
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
That graph from Spencer and Christy has been well critiqued and found wanting.

HotWhopper: Roy Spencer's latest deceit and deception
Wow! Hotwhopper - you've excelled yourself this time in choosing your source

Are you saying that it doesn't show a projected .6 degrees in 20 years v the .2 actual increase which you, yourself posted?

If you don't like that graph, here's another one with a very similar message. A clear failure by the models to reflect reality with massively over projected warming:

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Old 28-12-2015, 20:05   #578
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
OK, but I take it that 1850-1993 established that mean? If I remember correctly, we have simulated estimates from 1850 to about 1950, and actual measurements thereafter. Was there a corresponding increase in CO2 from 1994 to the present which correlates to your chart's above avg. temps?

This all gets back to the critical issues Stu just listed. If you accept as scientific fact that there is a warming trend, then you next have to determine whether it's human caused. If you get past those two inquiries, then you have to figure out the severity of the warming and its impact on the environment before you can convince anyone that the various solutions that have been proposed have any merit, and/or are worth the cost. I don't understand why you seem to suggest stopping the inquiry at whether there's been a warming trend over (x) no. of years. Hasn't the planet always been in a either a warming or a cooling trend, with the only variable the amount of stability or instability while undergoing that trend?
The mean is the 35 data set from RSS satellite data.

Radiative forcings



We should be in a cooling trend caused by natural cycles: we ain't.
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Old 28-12-2015, 20:08   #579
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by StuM View Post
Wow! Hotwhopper - you've excelled yourself this time in choosing your source

Are you saying that it doesn't show a projected .6 degrees in 20 years v the .2 actual increase which you, yourself posted?

If you don't like that graph, here's another one with a very similar message. A clear failure by the models to reflect reality with massively over projected warming:

Did you see the other graph from Ed Hawkins

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Old 28-12-2015, 20:10   #580
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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All of which were forecast by those pesky models.

https://opensnow.com/news/post/el-ni...016-ski-season
NOT by climate models. The long range weather models used to predict regional snowfall are entirely different to climate models. You just can't compare them meaningfully
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Old 28-12-2015, 20:22   #581
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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We should be in a cooling trend caused by natural cycles: we ain't.
That's news to me, Care to detail these natural cycles and the amount of cooling we should have expected from them?
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Old 28-12-2015, 20:35   #582
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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StuM said 20 years, I gave him 20 years.

You are cherry picking dates.

The WMO standard for climate is 30 years, which is even steeper.

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs





As to the "hiatus", read some science

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v.../ngeo2105.html

The Recent Slowing in the Rise of Global Temperatures | Remote Sensing Systems
I just read some science. The first article from Nature.com, titled "Reconciling warming trends," requires a paid subscription but before doing so says this:

Climate models projected stronger warming over the past 15 years than has been seen in observations. Conspiring factors of errors in volcanic and solar inputs, representations of aerosols, and El Nio evolution, may explain most of the discrepancy.

But with the exception of man-made aerosols (pollution vs. volcanic), aren't all the other "factors of errors" that conspired to throw the projections off in fact natural occurrences that have always been with us, and likely always will? And isn't the use of such qualified language in the last sentence another way of saying that this scientist really just doesn't know?

Your second article is even less confidence-inspiring. It covers all the same "conspiring factors of errors" from the first article but in more technical detail, some of which is admittedly over my head. But it comes up with another theory for the overestimated temps, namely unusually high trade winds that, combined with ocean currents, are believed (by some scientists) to be causing the upper layer of the ocean to be absorbing heat through a process called "subduction." The author then acknowledges that this is an unproven theory, that he has no idea when these "unusually high" trade winds will subside, saying only that they are some sort of aberration. But again back to Stu's point, aren't varying trade wind speeds a natural occurrence? And how do we establish a mean to establish what may be "aberrant" winds in any given year so we may compare?

The charts & graphs are often helpful Jack, but only if the underlying data has the degree of certainty that is required to support them. And again, to the extent they only "prove" a warming trend without showing human influence, I don't see how they can be persuasive to the larger and more important debate.
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Old 28-12-2015, 20:38   #583
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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There are individual biologists who reject natural selection.

What science academy executive has been turfed for its views on climate change?

When this counts as Facts....folks...
When will you realize you are trying to talk someone out of their Religion.
How they achieve Salvation.
How they cleanse away their Sin, make themselves a better person, and prove to the world that they CARE more than you.
It's why I long ago gave up talking Science to Religious people...why bother because Science is not what they are interested in...collective Salvation through saving mother Gia, is what this is all about.

So you can bang you head or just laugh and play along.
But presenting Science to Eco Imperialists isn't going to take you anywhere.
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Old 28-12-2015, 20:39   #584
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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That's news to me, Care to detail these natural cycles and the amount of cooling we should have expected from them?
Solar Activity



+++++++++++++++++++++++

Sunspots

Solar activity accounts for about 10% of climate change, and it is declining; but not enough to initiate any cooling.

The sun's activity is in free fall, according to a leading space physicist. But don't expect a little ice age. "Solar activity is declining very fast at the moment," Mike Lockwood, professor of space environmental physics at Reading University, UK, told New Scientist. "We estimate faster than at any time in the last 9300 years."

Lockwood and his colleagues are reassessing the chances of this decline continuing over decades to become the first "grand solar minimum" for four centuries. During a grand minimum the normal 11-year solar cycle is suppressed and the sun has virtually no sunspots for several decades. This summer should have seen a peak in the number of sunspots, but it didn't happen.

But Lockwood says we should not expect a new grand minimum to bring on a new little ice age.Human-induced global warming, he says, is already a more important force in global temperatures than even major solar cycles. "

++++++++++++++++++

Milankovitch cycles would have us cooling

Milankovitch Cycles €” OSS Foundation

+++++++++++++++++++++
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Old 28-12-2015, 20:40   #585
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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All of which were forecast by those pesky models.

https://opensnow.com/news/post/el-ni...016-ski-season
OK your source NOAA predictions are very wrong.
The temperature predictions are for above average temps for November thru Jan
So far we are actually 3 to 5 deg f below average here.
Now for the precipitation forecast from September thru November it projected below normal rain however October was a record rainfall and for Nov thru Jan so far Nov was above normal and December is at this point the second wettest on record with just over 10.3 inches of rainfall . We shall see what Jan holds for us. But that is called weather. My point is that if NOAA gets it so wrong with as little as 4 to 6 months how can they be expected to get it right projecting out in years.
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