Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

[Kenomac]

True story

One week ago while flying from Boston to Rome, I was sitting next to a school teacher from Minnesota. We were discussing our travels when she brought up her trip to Roatan the prior year, she lamented on what a shame it was that the water was so warm that she could hardly spend much time in it and that all the beautiful choral reefs in the area were becoming bleached and destroyed. Plus the sand flees had eaten her alive.

I asked her if she had done any scuba diving while in Roatan, she said no she didn't scuba dive. I responded by saying that I love to scuba dive and that I also visited Roatan last year, and then brought out my IPad to show her pictures of the beautiful coral and sea life surrounding Roatan... She looked surprised. I then tried to explain how sea life and land life isn't a constant... It moves around depending on temperature, predators, scientists annoying it etc. I gave up, it was falling on deaf ears.... Why bother.... And she's teaching the kids the global warming crap?

You see.... Unless you go down there yourself to see for yourself, don't believe half the crap the Global Warming crowd is trying to indoctrinate everyone with. Most people are sheep just like the teacher on the airplane who just repeat what they've been told. It takes another kind of person to put on the scuba tanks and go have a look. IMHO.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

I think computed average global temperatures should be adjusted to exclude the concurrent Pacific Warming Anomaly (aka El Nino) because I think there's strong evidence to suggest it is/was a regional phenomenon.

Christiana Figueres, the U.N. climate chief, said the record temperatures were partly caused by a natural warming effect of an El Nino weather event in the Pacific Ocean, magnified by the build-up of man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

Jean-Noel Thepaut, head of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, has noted that 15 of the 16 warmest years since records began were in the 21st century.

Phil Jones, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, said El Nino seemed less to blame for the current surge than the last big El Nino in 1998.

Terry Hughes, an Australian professor who heads the country's National Coral Bleaching Task Force, said the effects of recent major El Ninos have coincided with water that's already warmer because of man-made climate change - the link between bleaching and global warming is incontrovertible.

[Kenomac]

Another firsthand observation:

I recently went scuba diving off Cabo San Lucas, and I bet if you ask most folks, they'd also say that the scuba diving around there isn't what it used to be, probably because of globa warming.

When in fact, there are now thousands of people pestering the sea life that remains there on a daily basis. The sea life didn't die... It moved to a different location where people wouldn't pester and annoy it. The animals aren't stupid as some elite know it alls think. Go visit with nature once in a while.... You'll figure it out.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Exile

I can't help but find it extraordinarily ironic & sad that a Baptist minister who is on the "green left" as you describe yourself will get no derision from the more zealous AGW proponents, yet those same proponents won't hesitate to deride another Baptist minister who is a well-respected climate scientist, but happens to be skeptical of the mainstream position on AGW.

If you're referring to comments made on CF, your implication that Christy is being derided just for being a Baptist minister is unfounded. You well know that Christy and Spence have scientific disagreements with the mainstream, and those issues can be argued purely on the science.

The only religion-based criticism made here, as I recall, is that Christy is a member of the Cornwall Alliance, therefore presumably a signatory to this declaration... and I for one think that signing onto that raises questions about a climate scientist's objectivity... but I haven't and won't discount his work because of that.

As the venerable Delfin has recently shown, the most vociferous anti-AGW attacks are still being made against the whole field of climate science and its practitioners. Attacks on one scientist kind of pale by comparison.

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Christiana Figueres, the U.N. climate chief, said the record temperatures were partly caused by a natural warming effect of an El Nino weather event in the Pacific Ocean, magnified by the build-up of man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

Jean-Noel Thepaut, head of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, has noted that 15 of the 16 warmest years since records began were in the 21st century.

Phil Jones, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, said El Nino seemed less to blame for the current surge than the last big El Nino in 1998.

Terry Hughes, an Australian professor who heads the country's National Coral Bleaching Task Force, said the effects of recent major El Ninos have coincided with water that's already warmer because of man-made climate change - the link between bleaching and global warming is incontrovertible.

All three of those claims are disputable.

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[GordMay]

Coral Bleaching Taskforce documents most severe bleaching on record
➥ Coral Bleaching Taskforce documents most severe bleaching on record – ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies


Only 7% of the Great Barrier Reef has avoided coral bleaching
➥ Only 7% of the Great Barrier Reef has avoided coral bleaching – ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies

Corals worldwide hit by bleaching. Warm ocean waters combine with El Niño to turn reefs a stark white.
➥ Corals worldwide hit by bleaching : Nature News & Comment

See also the NOAA Coral Reef Watch program:
➥ NOAA Coral Reef Watch Homepage and Near-Real-Time Product Portal
➥ Climate change disables coral bleaching protection on the Great Barrier Reef | Science
➥ http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satel...ions_NCRMP.pdf

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

All three of those claims are disputable.

Please do dispute them.

[Lake-Effect]

America is getting new nuclear plants in Tennessee and Georgia. We need more.

[iyamwhatiyam]

Just some observations:

One would hope to have a discussion based on scientific merits, naturally, using scientific methods. Using scientific methods implies the use of logic and eschewing logical fallacies. There's my big word for the day. I surmise, and would expect to get at least some agreement that an ad hominem attack constitutes a logical fallacy. IMHO an argument that contains a logical fallacy is a weak argument.

In relationship to the above, there is a large political component that corrupts the science. The new Climategate scandal | Human Events

When diving off St Martin, I was disappointed to find dead bleached coral. When diving the Grenadines, the coral appeared extremely healthy. So something is going on, but I'm deeply suspicious of the conclusions being propagated by a politically corrupt segment of the scientific community.

I also can't help noticing that the proposed solutions tie a bit too neatly into the NWO agenda. Also, more people die when it gets colder and I don't hear too many plants complaining. And I KNOW some of you talk to your plants.

[mr_f]

Originally Posted by iyamwhatiyam

Just some observations:

One would hope to have a discussion based on scientific merits, naturally, using scientific methods. Using scientific methods implies the use of logic and eschewing logical fallacies. There's my big word for the day. I surmise, and would expect to get at least some agreement that an ad hominem attack constitutes a logical fallacy. IMHO an argument that contains a logical fallacy is a weak argument.

In relationship to the above, there is a large political component that corrupts the science. The new Climategate scandal | Human Events

When diving off St Martin, I was disappointed to find dead bleached coral. When diving the Grenadines, the coral appeared extremely healthy. So something is going on, but I'm deeply suspicious of the conclusions being propagated by a politically corrupt segment of the scientific community.

I also can't help noticing that the proposed solutions tie a bit too neatly into the NWO agenda. Also, more people die when it gets colder and I don't hear too many plants complaining. And I KNOW some of you talk to your plants.

I hope you can at least see the irony in your post. You didn't address the science at all, just attacked the character of the scientists, claiming that they are all "politically corrupt." That is the textbook definition of ad hominem.

[brantleychuck]

Was thinking this am, a rarity! So easy for many to believe that all wars are money driven , Haliburton,Cheney etc. but seem numb to the idea that climate science is also money driven .


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[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by brantleychuck

Was thinking this am, a rarity! So easy for many to believe that all wars are money driven , Haliburton,Cheney etc. but seem numb to the idea that climate science is also money driven .


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Money (generally) equals: food, shelter, security, etc., so what in the modern world isn't money driven? Certainly seems that some rational thinking about economics and the notion of 'costs' is needed here (or at least needs to be paid attention to...).

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Coral Bleaching Taskforce documents most severe bleaching on record
➥ Coral Bleaching Taskforce documents most severe bleaching on record – ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies


Only 7% of the Great Barrier Reef has avoided coral bleaching
➥ Only 7% of the Great Barrier Reef has avoided coral bleaching – ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies

Corals worldwide hit by bleaching. Warm ocean waters combine with El Niño to turn reefs a stark white.
➥ Corals worldwide hit by bleaching : Nature News & Comment

See also the NOAA Coral Reef Watch program:
➥ NOAA Coral Reef Watch Homepage and Near-Real-Time Product Portal
➥ Climate change disables coral bleaching protection on the Great Barrier Reef | Science
➥ http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satel...ions_NCRMP.pdf


Please do dispute them.

From a source without a dog in the fight...

http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/media-room/...=mobile_layout

Patchy bleaching has been detected on multiple reefs in mainly shallow areas where corals are frequently exposed to high levels of sunlight.

Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority Chairman Dr Russell Reichelt said February and March represent the highest risk periods for mass coral bleaching on the Reef because of hot and dry conditions associated with the El Niño weather system and high sea surface temperatures usually present at this time of year.

“Bleaching is a clear signal that living corals are under physiological stress. If that stress is bad enough for long enough, the corals can die. Corals generally have a temperature limit, and the bleaching indicates they’re outside of their comfort zone,” Dr Reichelt said.

“At this stage, there appears to be low rates of coral mortality restricted to a small number of reefs, and most of the corals affected by bleaching are those that are particularly vulnerable to this type of event such as plate and branching corals.

“Sea surface temperatures are fluctuating across the 345,000 square kilometres of Marine Park, but in some areas they’ve ranged up to 2.5 degrees above the average for summer. This has been exacerabated by lack of cloud cover.

And another...
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/curren....summary.shtml

Queensland had its warmest April on record, with the statewide mean temperature anomaly 2.7*°C above the long-term average (the previous record was +2.21 in 2005). Queensland's mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures were also the warmest on record for April, 2.9*°C and 2.5*°C above the historical average, respectively.

And another...
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/curren.../summary.shtml

April 2016 was another warmer than average month for Australia. The national April mean temperature was the second-warmest on record at 2.00*°C above Average. The national area averaged maximum temperature was also the second-warmest on record at 2.38*°C above average, while minimum temperatures were third-warmest on record at 1.61*°C above the historical average.

.....

So if you think coral bleaching is caused purely as a result of climate change you might also think the film "The Day After Tomorrow" was the sequel to "An Inconvenient Truth".





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[iyamwhatiyam]

Originally Posted by mr_f

I hope you can at least see the irony in your post. You didn't address the science at all, just attacked the character of the scientists, claiming that they are all "politically corrupt." That is the textbook definition of ad hominem.

Ah, but the corruption is a documented fact, and taints any legitimate conclusions. Also, I referred to a "segment" of the scientific community, not "all" as you misquote me here.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by iyamwhatiyam

Ah, but the corruption is a documented fact, and taints any legitimate conclusions.

Link?

[mr_f]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

From a source without a dog in the fight...

Low level coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef - GBRMPA

Patchy bleaching has been detected on multiple reefs in mainly shallow areas where corals are frequently exposed to high levels of sunlight.

Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority Chairman Dr Russell Reichelt said February and March represent the highest risk periods for mass coral bleaching on the Reef because of hot and dry conditions associated with the El Niño weather system and high sea surface temperatures usually present at this time of year.

“Bleaching is a clear signal that living corals are under physiological stress. If that stress is bad enough for long enough, the corals can die. Corals generally have a temperature limit, and the bleaching indicates they’re outside of their comfort zone,” Dr Reichelt said.

“At this stage, there appears to be low rates of coral mortality restricted to a small number of reefs, and most of the corals affected by bleaching are those that are particularly vulnerable to this type of event such as plate and branching corals.

“Sea surface temperatures are fluctuating across the 345,000 square kilometres of Marine Park, but in some areas they’ve ranged up to 2.5 degrees above the average for summer. This has been exacerabated by lack of cloud cover.

And another...
Queensland in April 2016

Queensland had its warmest April on record, with the statewide mean temperature anomaly 2.7*°C above the long-term average (the previous record was +2.21 in 2005). Queensland's mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures were also the warmest on record for April, 2.9*°C and 2.5*°C above the historical average, respectively.

And another...
Australia in April 2016

April 2016 was another warmer than average month for Australia. The national April mean temperature was the second-warmest on record at 2.00*°C above Average. The national area averaged maximum temperature was also the second-warmest on record at 2.38*°C above average, while minimum temperatures were third-warmest on record at 1.61*°C above the historical average.

.....

So if you think coral bleaching is caused purely as a result of climate change you might also think the film "The Day After Tomorrow" was the sequel to "An Inconvenient Truth".





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I don't believe anyone was claiming that bleaching is caused "purely as a result of climate change". But bleaching events have become more frequent in the last 20 years. Make of that what you will.

I do find it curious that you posted an article from early March to state "At this stage, there appears to be low rates of coral mortality restricted to a small number of reefs." From your same source of information, using more current news:

recent underwater surveys have detected substantial levels of coral mortality in the remote far north on inshore Cape York reefs. Diver teams have found the worst affected sites are near the tip of Cape York, with up to 50 per cent coral mortality because of prolonged higher than average sea surface temperatures.

However, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority Chairman Dr Russell Reichelt said the extent and severity of bleaching varies greatly across the Reef and the late arrival of the wet season appears to have so far spared most sections of the 344,400 square kilometre Marine Park from coral die-off.

Coral mortality rises in remote far north - GBRMPA

Damage is clearly variable, but areas are experiencing high mortality.

Even more recently, this article from the same source contains an added bonus for those who think the models are always wrong:

Based on the data that we are collecting on a daily basis, the overall picture has been broadly consistent for the past three weeks, whereby bleaching is widespread across the Reef, but not uniform in its severity.
The bleaching ranges from severe through to moderate and minor, with reefs between Port Douglas and the tip of Cape York being the most severely affected.
Mass coral bleaching is caused by prolonged exposure to heat stress. This summer's El Nino is a natural episodic event that is occurring on top of the underlying global ocean warming trend caused by climate change. The bleaching was accurately predicted some months in advance by regional climate modelling from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Statement on coral bleaching surveys - GBRMPA

I am not taking any kind of stand on whether the previous sources accurately represent the picture, but my reading of both sources show a fair amount agreement. The damage ranges from very little to very much, and there is significant mortality in parts of the reef. I am not arguing with you that press releases and the news in general prefer to grab people with headlines and bury the range of impacts in the details.

As for your other quotes, I am not sure I find several sources stating "warmest" or "second warmest" on record is a good argument that climate change isn't part of this problem. After all, this isn't the first El Nino we have experienced. Again, I am not claiming it is all of it. I am aware of El Nino. And I am aware that El Nino is necessarily superimposed on whatever other patterns are currently happening.