Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 28-04-2016, 21:44   #3871
Registered User
 
Delfin's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Anacortes, WA
Boat: 55' Romsdal
Posts: 1,390
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Oh dear. A study covering the period from 1958 to 2012. You do know what year it is, right? Current data contradicts this study, so do try to keep up.

New Evidence Regarding Tropical Water Vapor Feedback, Lindzenís Iris Effect, and the Missing Hotspot ¬ę Roy Spencer, PhD

Once again, you find something that supports your meme, take it out of context without being honest about what it actually says and then assert that the science is settled. Satellite data doesn't support your assertion. Does that mean the issue is settled? No, but it means that if you continue to make assertive statements based on a slice of the information available you will continue to appear to be a warmist propagandist not actually interested in the science.
__________________

__________________
http://delfin.talkspot.com
When stupidity is a sufficient explanation, there is no need to appeal to another cause.
- Ulmann's Razor
Delfin is offline  
Old 28-04-2016, 21:45   #3872
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by Delfin View Post
or the cartoonist who runs skepticalscience.com
You mean the one who has a degree in physics. The one who earns livelihood as the Climate Communication Fellow for the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland.

Or do you mean the cartoonist whose work was posted by Stu.
__________________

__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Old 28-04-2016, 21:45   #3873
Senior Cruiser
 
StuM's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Port Moresby,Papua New Guinea
Boat: FP Belize Maestro 43
Posts: 6,713
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Right - a cartoon from a radio weatherman's blog trumps science.
Nothing to do with the science. It just epitomizes your continual rejection of ANY good news regarding CO2/climate change etc.
__________________
StuM is offline  
Old 28-04-2016, 21:52   #3874
Registered User
 
Delfin's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Anacortes, WA
Boat: 55' Romsdal
Posts: 1,390
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Yes you are
Then avail yourself of the list of peer reviewed papers I posted showing exactly the opposite conclusion your blog post reached. Or ask Barton Levenson. Surely he knows what is going on in the Sahel.

Or here is another list of papers on the subject. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q...hJB-sQgQMIGjAA

Honestly Jack, when you make a clear mistake yet refuse to back down in the face of overwhelming evidence of your error you really can't be taken as seriously as you clearly wish to be.
__________________
http://delfin.talkspot.com
When stupidity is a sufficient explanation, there is no need to appeal to another cause.
- Ulmann's Razor
Delfin is offline  
Old 28-04-2016, 22:00   #3875
Registered User
 
Delfin's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Anacortes, WA
Boat: 55' Romsdal
Posts: 1,390
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
You mean the one who has a degree in physics. The one who earns livelihood as the Climate Communication Fellow for the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland.

Or do you mean the cartoonist whose work was posted by Stu.
Well actually, John Cook has a B.S. in physics, and good for him, I must say. He is working on a PhD in cognitive psychology (not quite there yet, I gather) but formerly made his living as a cartoonist, or as he characterizes his credentials:

[I“I’m not a climatologist or a scientist but a self employed cartoonist…”- John Cook][/I] - skepticalscience.com

Not a scientist, but I guess that explains why he is the go-to guy for so many warmists. Him and Barton Levenson. Both go-to guys.
__________________
http://delfin.talkspot.com
When stupidity is a sufficient explanation, there is no need to appeal to another cause.
- Ulmann's Razor
Delfin is offline  
Old 28-04-2016, 22:02   #3876
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by Delfin View Post
Oh dear. A study covering the period from 1958 to 2012. You do know what year it is, right? Current data contradicts this study, so do try to keep up.

New Evidence Regarding Tropical Water Vapor Feedback, Lindzenís Iris Effect, and the Missing Hotspot ¬ę Roy Spencer, PhD

Once again, you find something that supports your meme, take it out of context without being honest about what it actually says and then assert that the science is settled. Satellite data doesn't support your assertion. Does that mean the issue is settled? No, but it means that if you continue to make assertive statements based on a slice of the information available you will continue to appear to be a warmist propagandist not actually interested in the science.
Quote:
This is all very preliminary, and we await the CMIP5 archive coming back online again late this month so that we can analyze more models.
Nothing heard. False alarm.

Spencer has not analyzed more models. Or if he did, he has not published his results on his blog or in a journal.
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Old 28-04-2016, 22:05   #3877
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM View Post

Number fiddling is not science.

.
So Spencer and Christy's adjustments to their satellite data is not science?
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Old 28-04-2016, 22:06   #3878
Registered User
 
Delfin's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Anacortes, WA
Boat: 55' Romsdal
Posts: 1,390
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Nothing heard. False alarm.

Spencer has not analyzed more models. Or if he did, he has not published his results on his blog or in a journal.
Ah, new to the scientific method I see. You will need to wait until the study is completed. The preliminary data speaks for itself.
__________________
http://delfin.talkspot.com
When stupidity is a sufficient explanation, there is no need to appeal to another cause.
- Ulmann's Razor
Delfin is offline  
Old 28-04-2016, 22:09   #3879
Senior Cruiser
 
Kenomac's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Somewhere in the Adriatic Sea
Boat: Oyster 53 Cutter
Posts: 8,515
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

I need to start paying attention more closely, so that I can grab post #4000.
__________________
Kenomac is offline  
Old 28-04-2016, 22:10   #3880
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by Delfin View Post
So, is your theory that satellite data that measures temperatures in the entire lower troposphere is inferior data to weather stations placed next to WalMart parking lots? Interesting.
No, that is not my theory.

Satellites to not measure the entire lower troposphere.




Read the range from RSS.

BTW - Satellite measurements of the troposphere confirm warming trend, data shows - Carbon Brief
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Old 28-04-2016, 22:13   #3881
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by Delfin View Post
Ah, new to the scientific method I see. You will need to wait until the study is completed. The preliminary data speaks for itself.
You drew a conclusion on the basis of incomplete data.

Quote:
Current data contradicts this study, so do try to keep up.
I am the one who suggested we wait for something more substantive. We both will need to wait until the study is completed.
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Old 28-04-2016, 22:18   #3882
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Is this the post you meant (#3418 on p. 228)?

Here's how you responded there to a couple of the fundamental controversies in CC science, namely (i) the temp disparities btwn. sat vs. surface data, and (ii) ocean subduction as a theory for explaining those disparities:

Carl Mears of RSS believes that surface temperatures are more appropriate. Ask him why. Personally I live on the earth's surface, not in the troposphere. I suspect some here do inhabit the troposphere.

Mears also contends that the oceans are absorbing more heat energy.

Give him a thorough read.

The Recent Slowing in the Rise of Global Temperatures | Remote Sensing Systems


I've given this a thorough read, at your suggestion, at least twice. I understand completely that it's one side of a theory that attempts to reconcile the temp disparities from the two data modes. I also understand, quite thoroughly, that there is credible, contrary science that ALSO says the troposphere IS in fact an accurate measure of surface temps, and that ALSO discounts the ocean subduction theory based on, among other things, the failure to account for the "missing heat."

SO THERE ARE CONFLICTING BUT VIABLE THEORIES BUT YOU ARE ONLY PRESENTING ONE SIDE!!

As a more credible alternative, you could say . . .

1. Dr. Mears is smarter and better credentialed than his colleagues who can't find the missing heat;

2. The missing heat in the oceans is dissipated leaving only acidification behind;

3. My scientist is better than your scientist;

4. 49 scientists agree with Mears and only 47 with the others, so therefore;

5. Everyone & his dog knows ocean subduction is the only explanation so why bother;

6. The confusion is all Inhofe & Smith's fault, with help from Happer; and/or,

7. Christy & Spencer are religious nuts (oops, you've already said that).

But instead, you ignore that THERE ARE CONFLICTING BUT VIABLE THEORIES AND YOU ARE ONLY PRESENTING ONE SIDE!!

Sorry to say, but that is propaganda, not honest analysis nor critical thinking.
The man doth project too much methinks. (with apologizes to Shakespeare)
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Old 28-04-2016, 22:25   #3883
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by Delfin View Post
Then avail yourself of the list of peer reviewed papers I posted showing exactly the opposite conclusion your blog post reached. Or ask Barton Levenson. Surely he knows what is going on in the Sahel.

Or here is another list of papers on the subject. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q...hJB-sQgQMIGjAA

Honestly Jack, when you make a clear mistake yet refuse to back down in the face of overwhelming evidence of your error you really can't be taken as seriously as you clearly wish to be.
On the first page the newest article is 2008. "We review the evidence that connects drought and desertification in the Sahel with climate change past, present and future. Advances in climate modeling point to the oceans, not land, as the cause of the recent persistence of drought in the Sahel."
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Old 28-04-2016, 22:27   #3884
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by Delfin View Post
Well actually, John Cook has a B.S. in physics, and good for him, I must say. He is working on a PhD in cognitive psychology (not quite there yet, I gather) but formerly made his living as a cartoonist, or as he characterizes his credentials:

[I“I’m not a climatologist or a scientist but a self employed cartoonist…”- John Cook][/I] - skepticalscience.com

Not a scientist, but I guess that explains why he is the go-to guy for so many warmists. Him and Barton Levenson. Both go-to guys.
And John Christy is / was a an ordained Baptist minister.

Why is Anthony Watts the go-to denialsit guy. He is a university drop out who is a radio weatherman.
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Old 29-04-2016, 00:38   #3885
Senior Cruiser
 
StuM's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Port Moresby,Papua New Guinea
Boat: FP Belize Maestro 43
Posts: 6,713
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
So Spencer and Christy's adjustments to their satellite data is not science?
Two points.

1.Minor - You ignore the continuous adjustments of GISTEMP, HadCrut, RSS and pick on just UAH? Why is that.

2 Major Your "new science" references are both just fiddling with MODEL OUTPUTS.

"developed a method that consolidates climate models "
"
formalized approaches to unifying numerical modelling"

No new data and no new scientific finding anywhere.

It's no more new science that John Cook doing a "cognitive psychological" reanalysis of Shakespeare's Tragedies would be; and probably less useful

Heck, I fiddle with numerical data all day when I am developing information systems, often in novel ways. I don't call it new science.
__________________

__________________
StuM is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Cruising and the Coming Storm ~ Recession, Depression, Climate Change, Peak Oil jtbsail Off Topic Forum 162 13-10-2015 13:17
Weather Patterns / Climate Change anjou Off Topic Forum 185 19-01-2010 15:08
Climate Change GordMay Off Topic Forum 445 02-09-2008 08:48
Healthiest coral reefs hardest hit by climate change GordMay Off Topic Forum 33 11-05-2007 03:07



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 02:26.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.