Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

I'm aware of how much of a troll you've become. I got that much.

WHADDAYAMEAN??! .

Actually L-E, I thought your post this morn about carbon sinking was pretty good . . . until Delfin came along and clarified a few things that is.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by SailOar

Apparently either you are too lazy to click on the link, too illiterate to read it, or too dense to understand it. The article is from the New York Times, dated April 7, 2016, and reported on a study from Science, which is one of the foremost science-reporting journals. The report is about the albedo effect of clouds, which was relevant to part of the recent discussion in this thread.

No, I caught that one SailOar when you first posted, but only read the part you quoted. Jack previously posted something awhile back on cloud studies, and how the scientists conducting the study believed it might mean that the models were overestimating the cooling power of clouds and thereby underestimating overall warming. So when you posted it was already a bit stale, but no biggie.

Lazy? Sometimes but I usually overcome.

Dense? Sometimes with new topics but I can usually work through it.

Illiterate? Not since pre-K. I learned to read early.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Newhaul claimed that the Sahel was greening; I showed that it is in a drought condition.

The article I posted was written BEFORE the start of the El Nino.

Pre/post the current EL Niño is a typical diversion from the real facts.

"Recent analysis of satellite data suggests, however, that this view of the Sahel may not be accurate. In contrast, and to the surprise of many scientists and policy-makers, these studies reveal that large areas of the Sahel have in fact become increasingly green over the past 20 years. "

Re-greening Sahel - Stockholm Resilience Centre [NS4 version]

also

Climate change boosts rain in Africa's Sahel region: study | Reuters

and

Sahara Desert Greening Due to Climate Change?

[StuM]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Some new science dated yesterday.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/04/160427150902.htm

"a research team developed a method that consolidates climate models and the range of opinions that leading scientists have about them into a single, consistent set of probabilities. "

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journ...imate2959.html

"Here, we highlight the need for formalized approaches to unifying numerical modelling with expert judgement in order to facilitate characterization of uncertainty in a reproducible, consistent and transparent fashion."

If you think that is new science, I can see why this debate has gone on for so long.

Number fiddling is not science.

Both of those are just refining the calculation of how many angels fit on the head of a pin.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by StuM

Pre/post the current EL Niño is a typical diversion from the real facts.

"Recent analysis of satellite data suggests, however, that this view of the Sahel may not be accurate. In contrast, and to the surprise of many scientists and policy-makers, these studies reveal that large areas of the Sahel have in fact become increasingly green over the past 20 years. "

Re-greening Sahel - Stockholm Resilience Centre [NS4 version]

also

Climate change boosts rain in Africa's Sahel region: study | Reuters

and

Sahara Desert Greening Due to Climate Change?

Those satellites might wish to have chat with the folks on the ground.

2009 precedes the droughts of 2010 and 2012 as well as the current situation.

Sent from my SM-G900W8 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[Delfin]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Those satellites might wish to have chat with the folks on the ground.

2009 precedes the droughts of 2010 and 2012 as well as the current situation.

Sent from my SM-G900W8 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

So, is your theory that satellite data that measures temperatures in the entire lower troposphere is inferior data to weather stations placed next to WalMart parking lots? Interesting.

[Delfin]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Who denies feedback mechanisms? Not me.

Then, if the feedback mechanisms are on balance negative when CO2 in enriched in the atmosphere, does that mean that CO2 causes warming in the atmosphere?

Not saying they are all negative, mind you. Just that if you don't take them into account, you are have no basis for stating that more CO2 equals more warming in the complex system that is our climate. This is the fundamental problem with warmist analysis. You see things so simply, yet the world is so complex.

And since you couple your simple view with irritating narcissistic pontification and rudeness, you should naturally expect some push back.

[Delfin]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Yes, we all know that CC is just a front and a vehicle for bringing on a soshulist utopia. So even if she didn't actually say that, we JUST KNOW that she was thinking it... so it's ok.

Um, no ****. But it's not the pro-AGW side jamming up the works with multi-pronged attacks on the science, the climate scientists, and anyone who agrees with them.

Actually, the jamming is done to true believers who have little actual knowledge behind the science pertaining to what they are posting, other than what they can glean from climate expert sites like Barton Levenson's, or the cartoonist who runs skepticalscience.com

[Delfin]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Newhaul made an unsubstantiated assertion. I found evidence to counter his assertion. Is it too much to ask him for evidence? I guess it it.


Drought conditions continue to exist

Sahel: Drought, displacement and conflict leave 20 million food insecure - Humanosphere

What you found was a blog post supporting your position. Better than Barton Levenson, I'll admit, but probably not as persuasive as all the studies that demonstrate that you haven't demonstrated much of anything, other than a tendency not to know all that much about this subject.

Article metrics for: Dominant role of greenhouse-gas forcing in the recovery of Sahel rainfall : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

[Delfin]

Originally Posted by jackdale

The Sahel is suffering from a series of droughts.

Clueless.

Climate change offers rare respite for African farmers | News | Eco-Business | Asia Pacific

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Delfin

Clueless.

Yes you are

Not surprisingly, the report comes with qualifications, and no one is hailing it as anything more than a welcome sign that one part of Africa is gaining more than it is losing from global warming − for the moment, at least.

Prof Sutton, co-author of the study, stressed that the change in Sahelian rainfall was only local, and that warming is still affecting many parts of Africa through desertification, floods and rising sea levels.

“It would be naïve to conclude that this is a good thing for Africa,” he said. “And, in future, there are other effects. The rise in temperatures can be detrimental to crops.”

[StuM]

Originally Posted by jackdale

There is some evidence of CO2 fertilization but it generally regarded as short-term and beneficial to some only types of plants. I have already pointed out the issues of increased predation and declining nutrition.

Josh picked it!

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Delfin

What you found was a blog post supporting your position. Better than Barton Levenson, I'll admit, but probably not as persuasive as all the studies that demonstrate that you haven't demonstrated much of anything, other than a tendency not to know all that much about this subject.

Article metrics for: Dominant role of greenhouse-gas forcing in the recovery of Sahel rainfall : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

I thought you did not climate models. This is a forecast of future events.

Since the 1980s, there has been some recovery of Sahel rainfall amounts2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, although not to the pre-drought levels of the 1940s and 1950s. Here we report on experiments with the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art global climate model to identify the causes of this recovery. Our results suggest that the direct influence of higher levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was the main cause, with an additional role for changes in anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions. We find that recent changes in SSTs, although substantial, did not have a significant impact on the recovery. The simulated response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas and aerosol forcing is consistent with a multivariate fingerprint of the observed recovery, raising confidence in our findings. Although robust predictions are not yet possible, our results suggest that the recent recovery in Sahel rainfall amounts is most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by StuM

Josh picked it!

Right - a cartoon from a radio weatherman's blog trumps science.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Those satellites might wish to have chat with the folks on the ground.

2009 precedes the droughts of 2010 and 2012 as well as the current situation.

Sent from my SM-G900W8 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

The Sahel was just quoted as one example of greening. Even if you think that the reports of the Sahel greening are wrong (which appears to be your case given your fight back over this region), how about looking at the wider picture:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journ...imate3004.html

" Here we use three long-term satellite leaf area index (LAI) records and ten global ecosystem models to investigate four key drivers of LAI trends during 1982–2009. We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (LCC) (4%). CO2 fertilization effects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau. LCC contributed most to the regional greening observed in southeast China and the eastern United States."