Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

[Reefmagnet]

Australian cyclones 2015/2016 is 3 for the season during hottest years / months on record. This is well below average.



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[fryewe]

Originally Posted by jackdale

One of my classes protected 400 acres of rainforest.

How did they do that? What action did they take to protect it? Was the protected acreage a specific location or some undefined 400 acres in the Amazon River basin?

[fryewe]

Originally Posted by jackdale

No. The anthropogenic forcing is overriding the natural forcing by a significant amount.

Yep, that's what the bar graph shows.

And, for some undefined reason, the graph shows that the sum of the anthropogenic and the natural forcing exceeds a hundred percent for several of the studies.

Why?

I don't have enough information to determine why, but perhaps you know and can enlighten us.

Did skeptical science simply make a couple of mistakes in their presentation of the data?

Are there other categories of factors affecting climate other than "anthropogenic" and "natural" that are not presented?

[SailOar]

Clouds won’t slow climate change: NASA survey finds their cooling effects have been overstated | Salon

[...] Analysis of the first seven years of data from a NASA cloud-monitoring mission suggests clouds are doing less to slow the warming of the planet than previously thought, and that temperatures may rise faster than expected as greenhouse gas pollution worsens—perhaps 25 percent faster.

Clouds can play an important role in slowing global warming by reflecting energy back into space. As temperatures rise, clouds contain more liquid water and fewer ice crystals, making them brighter, meaning they reflect more sunlight.

The new research, however, suggests climate models have overestimated how much ice is in clouds, meaning less is available to be converted to liquid as temperatures rise.[...]

The repercussions of the findings, which were published Thursday in Science, could make it harder to hold warming to limits set during recent United Nations climate negotiations—but they’re being received cautiously by other climate scientists, with questions raised over the results of the analysis.[...]

One of climate science’s great quests is to project how much earth warms when carbon dioxide concentrations double—something known as climate sensitivity. When carbon dioxide levels were doubled in the modified model, temperatures rose by at least a quarter more than they did when the unmodified model was used—to at least 5°C (9°F).

What the findings might actually mean for earth will depend heavily on how much carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases yet gets billowed into the atmosphere, and how quickly. But the discovery suggests impacts from climate change will be worse, and that they will get worse more quickly than earth models had previously indicated.[...]

[SailOar]

Originally Posted by StuM

So instead of CNN, let's look at the data:

Monthly sea levels for MARSHALL ISLANDS

A technical discussion on the apparent anomaly of accelerating sea level rise in the Marshall Islands:

The Marshall Islands and their Sea Level Changes | Watts Up With That

[TurninTurtle]

Every MMGW believer who is on the internet is a hypocrite.

If you are opposed to fossil fuels then you need to 100% quit using EVERYTHING made using fossil fuel.

No plastics.

No paint

No fiberglass

No metals (they are refined using fossil fuel heat)

You can't go to the grocery stores that have food shipped in by truck

You can't use any form of refrigeration system because the refrigerant is produced using fossil fuel.

Go live in a cave and pick berries.

[fryewe]

Originally Posted by TurninTurtle

Every MMGW believer who is on the internet is a hypocrite.

If you are opposed to fossil fuels then you need to 100% quit using EVERYTHING made using fossil fuel.

No plastics.

No paint

No fiberglass

No metals (they are refined using fossil fuel heat)

You can't go to the grocery stores that have food shipped in by truck

You can't use any form of refrigeration system because the refrigerant is produced using fossil fuel.

Go live in a cave and pick berries.

You gotta remember, it's not about them not using fossil fuels, but about you not using fossil fuels.

Welcome to the discussion.

[newhaul]

Turninturtle welcome to this lil slice of the lunacy that keeps us all entertained
BTW not all refrigerant systems require fossil fuels. There is always the oldest modern one the ammonia absorption system like in RV's.

[SailOar]

Originally Posted by fryewe

You gotta remember, it's not about them not using fossil fuels, but about you not using fossil fuels.

Welcome to the discussion.

Exactly!!

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by fryewe

You gotta remember, it's not about them not using fossil fuels, but about you not using fossil fuels.

And....

Their changing climate vs your changing weather.

[SailOar]

Originally Posted by StuM

And climate change could result in smaller, less frequent storms.

No one knows which it will be.

What is the link between hurricanes and global warming? | Skeptical Science

There are two aspects to hurricane activity that are often confused so it helps to consider them separately. Specifically, does global warming cause more frequent hurricanes and does it cause more intense hurricanes?

Hurricane frequency

In July 2007, a survey of hurricanes in the North Atlantic over the past century noted an increase in the number of observed hurricanes, concluding "increasing cyclone numbers has lead to a distinct trend in the number of major hurricanes and one that is clearly associated with greenhouse warming" (Holland 2007). However, this was refuted by an analysis of monitoring systems stating "improved monitoring in recent years is responsible for most, if not all, of the observed trend in increasing frequency of tropical cyclones" (Landsea 2007). In other words, the reason more hurricanes are being observed may be due to an improved ability to observe them, thanks to aircraft, radar and satellites.


Figure 1: History of the tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3+) in the North Atlantic derived from the analysis of the National Hurricane Center (Global Warming Art).

The question of hurricane frequency was also addressed in a study that used climate models to simulate hurricane response to warming in the North Atlantic. Increasing temperature leads to an increase in vertical wind shear which may inhibit the formation of hurricanes (Vecchi 2007). Thus, the impact of global warming on hurricane frequency is one area requiring further research and more data.

Hurricane Intensity

To determine whether warmer temperatures affect hurricane intensity, one study began by defining the potential destructiveness of a hurricane based on the dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of a hurricane (Emanuel 2005). The Power Dissipation Index is found to increase since the mid-1970s, due to both longer and more intense storms. Hurricane intensity is also highly correlated with sea surface temperature. This suggests that future warming will lead to an increase in the destructive potential of tropical hurricanes.


Figure 2: Smoothed Power Dissipation Index (dotted line, a measure of hurricane intensity) versus Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (solid black line). (Emannuel 2005).

Global satellite data since 1981 can be used to extend analysis of hurricane intensity to each ocean, looking for any trend in wind speed (Elsner 2008). Figure 3 plots the long term trend in maximum wind speed (eg - whether hurricanes are getting stronger or weaker) against different strength hurricanes. This tells us not only whether hurricanes are overall getting stronger but also how different strength hurricanes are being affected. Overall, there is a statistically significant upward trend (the horizontal red line). But more significantly, Elsner found weaker hurricanes showed little to no trend while stronger hurricanes showed a greater upward trend. In other words, stronger hurricanes are getting stronger. This means that as sea temperatures continue to rise, the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes hitting land will inevitably increase. More on Elsner's paper...


Figure 3: Trends in tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds for different strength hurricanes. Uncertainty range is shown in grey. Solid red line is the overall trend, dashed red lines show 90% confidence range (Elsner 2008).

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by TurninTurtle

Every MMGW believer who is on the internet is a hypocrite.

If you are opposed to fossil fuels then you need to 100% quit using EVERYTHING made using fossil fuel.

No plastics.

No paint

No fiberglass

No metals (they are refined using fossil fuel heat)

You can't go to the grocery stores that have food shipped in by truck

You can't use any form of refrigeration system because the refrigerant is produced using fossil fuel.

Go live in a cave and pick berries.

Many of those are products that use petroleum as a feedstock. They do not produce CO2 until they burned.

By not burning fossil fuels we will extend the life of the petrochemical industry.

[Celestialsailor]

Consensus on consensus: Expertise matters in agreement over human-caused climate change | PHYS.ORG
Quote:
This image has been resized. Click this bar to view the full image. The original image is sized %1%2.
Bringing together authors of seven different consensus studies,
Cook and his team show that among climate experts the rate of agreement
about human-caused climate change is between 90 to 100 percent.
Credit: University of Queensland, John Garrett

A research team confirms that 97 percent of climate scientists agree that climate change is caused by humans. The group includes Sarah Green, a chemistry professor at Michigan Technological University.
Unfortunately, the 3%-10% ended up on this thread...

[transmitterdan]

In case anyone cannot understand why "gloom and doom" predictions from left leaning ideologues are falling on deaf ears...

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/04/...spectacularly/

If you look at each of these and several other "end of civilization" predictions you will find that on balance the original post in this thread is probably right.

Every time a problem arises that some are sure can't be solved without drastic reductions in population and/or living standards history has revealed the theory to be invalid. Poverty, hunger, disease are all declining. Population and expected life span both continue to increase. We have hundreds of years of oil in the ground (more than in 1970). Some believe that in less than 25 years the expected life span in the US will increase 1 year per year.

Climate is the last (only?) gloom and doom scenario remaining that might force the world to adopt the solutions the left prefers. Ignoring the political angle of the climate change debate to put your head in the sand.

[Kenomac]

This prediction looks to be spot on:

7: “By the Year 2000 … There Won’t Be Any More Crude Oil.”
On Earth Day in 1970 ecologist Kenneth Watt famously predicted that the world would run out of oil saying, “You’ll drive up to the pump and say, ‘Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, ‘I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’”