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Old 02-04-2016, 18:24   #3046
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

"Much of the contrary scientific evidence is suppressed I'm afraid..."

Impossible.

Most all of the entire global human population has access to instant global communications. Information from one side of the most colossal world issue ever can not possibly remain suppressed. A "suppressor" could easily jump ship; alter their opinion or even be influenced by a bit of cash for the offering.
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Old 02-04-2016, 18:38   #3047
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

"Kenomac:
- what problem? I like warm"


Yes! Only five days to go until I experience some significant global warming!!!

Let's see if I'm able to grab post #4000 to add to my collection. :-)
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Old 02-04-2016, 19:28   #3048
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by bcguy View Post
"Much of the contrary scientific evidence is suppressed I'm afraid..."

Impossible.

Most all of the entire global human population has access to instant global communications. Information from one side of the most colossal world issue ever can not possibly remain suppressed. A "suppressor" could easily jump ship; alter their opinion or even be influenced by a bit of cash for the offering.
OK, maybe "suppressed" wasn't the right descriptor. How about "drowned out"?
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Old 02-04-2016, 19:30   #3049
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by Kenomac View Post
"Kenomac:
- what problem? I like warm"


Yes! Only five days to go until I experience some significant global warming!!!

Let's see if I'm able to grab post #4000 to add to my collection. :-)
You're a nut. But congrats on closing in on another glorious season on the Med. Looking forward to more videos!
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Old 02-04-2016, 19:35   #3050
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
I have no doubt that as time passes, and the theories around AGW are refined, and the predictions shown to have been essentially correct, the anti- position will continue to be walked back.
Of course it would help the pro AGW folks credibility if their predictions could be shown to be essentially correct, but so far their predictions have been shown to be essentially incorrect. That's why many of us are "walking back" their position for those who apparently are too proud to walk their positions back on their own. But alas, every religion has their "true believers" who will always believe, no matter how wrong their high priests past predictions have been and continue to be.
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Old 02-04-2016, 21:04   #3051
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
OK, maybe "suppressed" wasn't the right descriptor. How about "drowned out"?
I would go with "drowned out". Flooded out might be a better term. Maybe swamped. The term "overwhelmed" comes to mind.




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Old 02-04-2016, 21:06   #3052
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by jtsailjt View Post
Of course it would help the pro AGW folks credibility if their predictions could be shown to be essentially correct, but so far their predictions have been shown to be essentially incorrect. That's why many of us are "walking back" their position for those who apparently are too proud to walk their positions back on their own. But alas, every religion has their "true believers" who will always believe, no matter how wrong their high priests past predictions have been and continue to be.
Global Climate Models have successfully predicted:

That the troposphere would warm and the stratosphere would cool.

That nighttime temperatures would increase more than daytime temperatures.

That winter temperatures would increase more than summer temperatures.

Polar amplification (greater temperature increase as you move toward the poles).

That the Arctic would warm faster than the Antarctic.

The magnitude (0.3 K) and duration (two years) of the cooling from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption.

They made a retrodiction for Last Glacial Maximum sea surface temperatures which was inconsistent with the paleo evidence, and better paleo evidence showed the models were right.

They predicted a trend significantly different and differently signed from UAH satellite temperatures, and then a bug was found in the satellite data.

The amount of water vapor feedback due to ENSO.

The response of southern ocean winds to the ozone hole.

The expansion of the Hadley cells.

The poleward movement of storm tracks.

The rising of the tropopause and the effective radiating altitude.

The clear sky super greenhouse effect from increased water vapor in the tropics.

The near constancy of relative humidity on global average.

That coastal upwelling of ocean water would increase.
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Old 02-04-2016, 21:07   #3053
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
I would go with "drowned out". Flooded out might be a better term. Maybe swamped. The term "overwhelmed" comes to mind.




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Oh boy, we're back to regurgitating the "consensus" again. For the newbies to the thread perhaps? What, nothing new to share after all this time?
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Old 02-04-2016, 21:08   #3054
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Remember Dr. Happer and the insinuations of corruption? How about the UAH guys -- Christy & Spencer? Christian end-timers anyone?? And Judith Curry? Somehow only a few of her positions are OK, but only if they comport with more mainstream views. But then her congressional testimony about pressures in the scientific community to conform are discredited because it was before Ted Cruz's sub-committee. C'mon man, can't you see the obvious political bias? I agree with you generally that politics "shouldn't" have any place in a scientific debate, but the reality is that it does and always has in this one -- on both sides. But if you somehow can't see this -- or only see negative political influences from the side you disfavor -- then we're back to square one and a mindless "debate" that goes nowhere.
A handful of internal disagreements that reads like the lurid synopsis of a telenova... does not cut it as indictment of an entire INTERNATIONAL scientific field. Sorry.


Quote:
In fact, there are many arguments both challenging & supporting each type of data set, along with the modeling, but I personally find Jack's absolute SILENCE on the issue rather deafening, don't you? How do you know, and why would you assume, that the "best in the business" who rely on the surface data aren't just equally stumped?
I don't think that Jack is contractually obligated to answer every scientific quibble launched at him in a sailing forum.... I expect that any serious discrepancies raised by new data will be thrashed out by the scientific community.


Quote:
Except that govt.'s have had little to do with it, at least in the free world.



Reduced emissions in the western world have largely come about through American fracking technology, hate to tell ya but it's true. It's created a glut of natural gas as a much cleaner substitute for coal to generate electricity.
You have the cart before the horse. Pollution mandates and targeted reduction of coal use were in place far in advance of fracking. Who mandated (and subsidized) coal-plants to install 3rd Day's filter thingies? What was the incentive to get into fracking and other gas exploration?

Quote:
Even the govt.'s auto emissions mandates were driven by citizens' demands for more fuel-efficient and thus less expensive transportation -- not "cleaner" cars for most people, sorry to say, but cheaper transportation.
Wow. You're completely out to lunch here. Removing lead from gas didn't make transportation cheaper. Catalytic converters didn't make transportation cheaper. Do I have to mention ethanol? Here's a hint: EPA. And the 73 oil crisis led to mandates for higher efficiency. Government mandate, not the free market. I recall that your own vehicle choice was not primarily based on lowest operating cost....

Quote:
As for alternative energy, the govt's subsidies and commercial investments have mostly been a waste of taxpayer money (Solyndra anyone?), with the exception of the minor amount that goes for research I suppose. I actually wish alternative energy was more viable frankly (as does Keno!), but refuse to let naivetť blind me to reality.


Even including Solyndra, your government's program of backing of green companies has actually generated a profit.

The reality, if you do care to look, is that we won't willingly get weaned off of fossil fuels while their cost is absurdly low. For a number of reasons the private sector is not able or willing to undertake the work of developing and producing the new power sources we need in a useful timeframe. Government is a necessary leader and partner in this undertaking.

Quote:
I agree with Mike OReilly (believe it or not) that we're likely all screwed no matter what we attempt to do, or our descendants likely are.
We're definitely screwed if most thoughtful guys like you are as mired in political mythology.

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Old 02-04-2016, 21:08   #3055
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Oh boy, we're back to regurgitating the "consensus" again. For the newbies to the thread perhaps? What, nothing new to share after all this time?
Go prove that Powell is wrong. I linked to his site. His data and methodology are there.
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Old 02-04-2016, 21:14   #3056
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenomac View Post
"Kenomac:
- what problem? I like warm"


Yes! Only five days to go until I experience some significant global warming!!!
The Med was warmer than average last year.



And in February (latest month available)

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Old 02-04-2016, 21:17   #3057
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Exile - if you think I have been silent, you are deaf.
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Old 02-04-2016, 21:23   #3058
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Global Climate Models have successfully predicted:

That the troposphere would warm and the stratosphere would cool.

That nighttime temperatures would increase more than daytime temperatures.

That winter temperatures would increase more than summer temperatures.

Polar amplification (greater temperature increase as you move toward the poles).

That the Arctic would warm faster than the Antarctic.

The magnitude (0.3 K) and duration (two years) of the cooling from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption.

They made a retrodiction for Last Glacial Maximum sea surface temperatures which was inconsistent with the paleo evidence, and better paleo evidence showed the models were right.

They predicted a trend significantly different and differently signed from UAH satellite temperatures, and then a bug was found in the satellite data.

The amount of water vapor feedback due to ENSO.

The response of southern ocean winds to the ozone hole.

The expansion of the Hadley cells.

The poleward movement of storm tracks.

The rising of the tropopause and the effective radiating altitude.

The clear sky super greenhouse effect from increased water vapor in the tropics.

The near constancy of relative humidity on global average.

That coastal upwelling of ocean water would increase.
All very interesting but I see we're starting from the beginning of the thread again. I especially like the first one you cite that the models correctly predicted:

"That the troposphere would warm and the stratosphere would cool."

All well & good, but unfortunately, the models failed to predict that the troposphere would warm far less than the models predicted, as recorded by the satellites. And the temps recorded by land/sea stations just "happened" to initially line up with these same cooler sat temps. Until the surface temps were "adjusted" upwards to match the modeling, that is. So before the "adjustments" were made, the satellite and surface temps lined up fairly close, with both sets of data showing far less warming than what was predicted by the modeling, i.e. far less than what was being propagated by the pro-MMGW crowd, scientists, laymen, and politicians alike.

Does anyone else find this more than a bit curious?
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Old 02-04-2016, 21:26   #3059
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Go prove that Powell is wrong. I linked to his site. His data and methodology are there.
Right. Just like you initially linked to his site & methodology months ago, and probably on other forum threads as well. There's probably 20+ pages on debunking this "consensus" issue for anyone curious out there to go back and read. But much more efficient to just Google it and anyone can grasp the outlines of the controversy in 10 minutes.
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Old 02-04-2016, 21:36   #3060
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Exile - if you think I have been silent, you are deaf.
No, I've "heard" you loud & clear generally for months now, and much of it has been informative and educational. But this is exactly why your silence on the issue of the satellite data is so "deafening." Stu must have asked you in various ways over 20 times for a response. Maybe 30 at this point from me. Remember, I'm not one who is suggesting that one or the other sets of data may be right or wrong, only that there's a conflict within the scientific community with what is fundamental to this entire debate, namely how accurate are the tools climatologists have for taking the Earth's temperature.

I have read many critiques for each methodology. Just pick one, and inform us why the surface data and modeling can be definitively relied on over the sat data. I promise, I'll "listen."
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