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Old 23-08-2012, 02:12   #46
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I believe in the science, but I don't really care about the source of the change. What I care about is the fact that it IS happening and at an unprecedented rate according to the ice core samples for the last 4 or 5 hundred thousand years.

We live daily on a knifes edge that many don't think about. The warming issues is not even the big problem, that is more something our grand kids are going to have to worry about. For us it is, in sailing terms, the inter-monsoon that is going to cause so much suffering and misery for our generation. The real term shouldn't be global warming or climate change but "climate instability" just like in the inter monsoons in the Indian ocean when the winds and weather are changing from one stable point to another the transition can be violent.

We are entering that transition now. The ranges of things are greater. We are now moving farther away from the middle of the bell curve. For example the number of hurricanes on average a year may not change a single bit, but in a given year there might not be a single hurricane and the next there might be 50. The wind strengths can be higher, the sea temp fluctuations greater.

The el niño and la nina variations in the pacific are changing inter pendulum swings, the safe windows for passage across the north Indian ocean have dramatically narrowed, not that we would know since the pirates are keeping most of us from those passages anymore.

It is about large and rapid swings and instability. This affects us as sailors and as people.

If we lose less than 5% of the global arable land due to climate change there will be war unlike anything previously experienced.

Who cares about the source, when the stakes are so high does it not warrant caution and the seeking of a solution versus rhetoric and loads of uninformed BS?
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Old 23-08-2012, 02:20   #47
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Re: What's Happening to Glacier Ice - Hard, Gritty Evidence

Quote:
Bumper sticker slogans like "Follow the Money" fail a simple test:

They deliver whatever answer you want them to, rather than the right answer. It's the "I Ching" effect.
Kind of like climate data. If it doesn't fit, fudge it or ignore it. Following the money does indeed lead to some unsavoury conclusions, which is why AGW is becoming untenable. More and more people are waking up that the carbon emperor is naked, and will fall for the next thing coming down the pike: "sustainablitly". The ptb at the grossly corrupt UN, and their equally corrupt hangers on, have realised this and gone for a more subtle and deceptive approach. Just look at what the wise elders and betters were saying at Rio +20.

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They also, it seems to me, have no place in a sober discussion about scientific data, and the inferences drawn from them.
It isn't a sober discussion about data, it is a political ideological scam, which is why it refuses to die no matter how much reason is applied. And classic gramsci/alinsky tactics are being heavily applied to force the issue.

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If these red herrings had never been introduced (always, in my experience, from the same side of the argument), perhaps the people of the world would have arrived at a consensus on the data and the inferences not long after the scientists of the world did.
Consensus. There isn't any amongst the scientific community. Sure, amongst the establishment that keep pushing the alternating cooling/warming hysteria, but not amongst all scientists. And since when is the Hegelian dialectic an honest method for arriving at truth, or handling it? It isn't, because it forces a pre-conceived conclusion.

Anyway, back to sailing. Watch out if you go above the Arctic/Antarctic circles, because the ice is approaching record high (gratuitous sailing-related info): Arctic Ice Area Approaching Abnormally High Range | Real Science

While you're on your way to the ice, here's a piece about geoengineering....just look at the money!
Bill Gates backs climate scientists lobbying for large-scale geoengineering | Environment | The Guardian

Here's a bit about Greenland's cycle of melting/freezing:
Old aerial photos supply new knowledge on glaciers in Greenland – it has been warm or warmer than today in the not so distant past | Watts Up With That?

Here's a piece about the history and finer points of Agenda 21:
A Brief History & Description of Agenda 21

Some of the alarmist propaganda at Rio +20. Interesting site:
From charming to alarming: Rio+20 sustainability propaganda | CFACT.TV

Some more Rio +20:
WND » Spies at U.N. ‘green’ confab expose red agenda » Print

And the aims of the Rio +20 scam:
Rio+20 Resources | CFACT.TV
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Old 23-08-2012, 02:53   #48
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Re: What's Happening to Glacier Ice - Hard, Gritty Evidence

It's summertime.... The artic ice is supposed to melt. At least once a year I have the awesome pleasure of flying over the polar ice cap during Springtime. It's enormous.... Some of you global warming alarmists should put down your pen and agenda and get out and see for youself what's actually going on... You'll quickly change your mind regarding the issue.

Stop worrying about nada.
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Old 23-08-2012, 02:57   #49
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Re: What's Happening to Glacier Ice - Hard, Gritty Evidence

A highly informed non-BS article that explains alarmist rhetorical mistakes, demonstrated and refuted in a richly manured example of an alarmist shipwrecked by a skeptic. A great read!

http://o.b5z.net/i/u/10152887/f/Publ...1_20120725.pdf
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Old 23-08-2012, 02:57   #50
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Re: What's Happening to Glacier Ice - Hard, Gritty Evidence

Micah wrote:

"Kind of like climate data. If it doesn't fit, fudge it or ignore it. "

That's a very good point.

We see this on both sides of this argument.

The overwhelming preponderance of this modus operandi is on the side you are arguing for, by well over an order of magnitude.
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Old 23-08-2012, 03:07   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by micah719

Kind of like ... data. If it doesn't fit, fudge it or ignore it.

It isn't a sober discussion about data...
Ok let's keep it about data. Let's start with yours

Quote:
Originally Posted by micah719
Anyway, back to sailing. Watch out if you go above the Arctic/Antarctic circles, because the ice is approaching record high (gratuitous sailing-related info): Arctic Ice Area Approaching Abnormally High Range | Real Science
You post the above link from a skeptic site. It has two images with no referring source or context as to what the images represent. And to cut to brass tacks, they are plain wrong.

Here is a link to the NSIDC, The National Snow and Ice Data Center which shows the whole story and not the out of context and misrepresented version shown on the site you linked. Look at the graph which shows we are currently 3 to 4 standard deviations below normal ice averages for the summer melt off when from the averages of 1979 to 2000.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/


Quote:
Originally Posted by micah719
While you're on your way to the ice, here's a piece about geoengineering....just look at the money!
Bill Gates backs climate scientists lobbying for large-scale geoengineering | Environment | The Guardian
Now let's discuss the above. Whether you agree with this or not, how is this "following the money"? Green industry will create more jobs for people than the old oil and gas industry. And the money people aren't government because the government is run by the lobbies and corporations. They do NOT want any regulations that will be associated with gong clean and green. So to say the government is somehow in cahoots to trick us all into going green? That would imply the government is in a conspiracy relationship with a bunch of poor grotty tree huggers and climate scientists instead of the money rich and powerful corporate and oil and gas industry? Umm, doesn't make logical sense like most conspiracies don't.

This is not news. And climate change scientists have not said that the recent warming trend is due to climate change. They also recognise the variability of the temperatures historically in Greenland. All that was said was the the range and rapidity of the recent warming was unusual. It was the Climate Change Deniers that took this information and started using it to beat up the scientists and tried to bring it into the climate change argument. Not every climate variation or weather or unexpected hurricane is attributed to climate change, but the skeptics look for any data point they can grab.

Quote:
Originally Posted by micah719
Here's a piece about the history and finer points of Agenda 21:
A Brief History & Description of Agenda 21
Wow, where to start. This, like many uninformed articles seems to confuse the concept of socialism with old style communism. Additionally there is no information contained in here, just opinion with out supporting evidence. They don't even list out the points from the agenda.

Quote:
Originally Posted by micah719
Some of the alarmist propaganda at Rio +20. Interesting site:
From charming to alarming: Rio+20 sustainability propaganda | CFACT.TV
So you have posted a link with a bunch of posters on climate change and most obviously made by protestors or children. Not sure I see what this proves?


Quote:
Originally Posted by micah719
You want to use an article like this to support your position? The conspiracy is that the conference is deciding to use nnew language because the population isn't listening to the message and that makes them Marxist Reds? Really? Marxist reds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by micah719
And the aims of the Rio +20 scam:
Rio+20 Resources | CFACT.TV
Did you read any of the documents in this link? This doesn't present an argument all it does it present information about Rio21, none of it supports your agenda with the exception of the Freedom21 agenda which is an alternative agenda to the Rio21.

Did you look at the list of the endorsers for this document? Shall we talk about real conspiracies now? Look at the list, most are think tank fronts for various oil and gas organisations and republican support organisations with clear anti regulation agendas. If you apply your follow the money trail to this document it will actually work. Google some of the foundations and names.

Can we get back to sailing now?
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Old 23-08-2012, 03:48   #52
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Re: What's Happening to Glacier Ice - Hard, Gritty Evidence

The pdf I posted last shows the context for the ice photos. The propaganda posters show the extent and success of brainwashing in schools. Green jobs only work in the real world when they are heavily subsidised by taxpayers money. Here in Germany we are awash in green regulational nonsense and socialist ideology, and are going bankrupt because of their policies. Look a little closer to home and you may notice the same thing. I post the Rio +20 stuff because that shows the thrust behind the agw ideology....global government by the UN, with agw as a worn-out tool that even they are dropping. I don't automatically approve of the Freedom 21 agenda, nor do I automatically sign up to everything that non-agw folks say. I hate politics of both "sides" since there is no difference between them, and oppose each politician based on his position.

As to going sailing now......why didn't you ask Andrew that at the start? Seems the vitriol only comes out when someone refuses to drink the Koolaid and publicly says why.
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Old 23-08-2012, 04:03   #53
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Re: What's Happening to Glacier Ice - Hard, Gritty Evidence

I started following the links provided by Micah. I think I'm cured of that now, because this was the first one:

"Watch out if you go above the Arctic/Antarctic circles, because the ice is approaching record high (gratuitous sailing-related info): Arctic Ice Area Approaching Abnormally High Range | Real Science "

Micah: did you even look at the graph which purported to show the ice approaching a record high?

The graph which is claimed to show the ice coverage one standard deviation higher than usual, actually shows the 2012 ice arrowing towards a likely mid September area of at least FOUR standard deviations below the usual. I attach it below.

Micah, this is YOUR 'data', not mine.

What's more, none of the twelve visitors to the website who commented had noticed the graph showed the opposite to what was claimed. This appears to be a bubble, within whose comfortable shelter like-minded people huddle for mutual support.
This has nothing whatsoever to do with looking at data and what it might suggest.

I checked it against other data from other sources, in case the self appointed climate pundit at "Real Science" had mistakenly posted the wrong link.

They told the same story. We are heading, within a month, for the lowest amount of Arctic ice since records were kept.
Nearly HALF the total area will have disappeared relative to the 1980s.

How a sailor could possibly think the opposite, is beyond me.
Every year a small yacht pioneers yet another easy route through the NorthWest Passage, once impassable and in more recent times only by substantial, ice-strengthened vessels following the only viable route ... which itself was only seldom passable.

Now nations are lining up and jostling for sovereign power to extract mineral resources from those far-northern parts of the earth's mantle which have never been uncovered hitherto. They don't seem to share your pessimism about ice engulfing the Arctic. Icebreakers lie in mothballs....

Follow the money, indeed. There's HUGE wealth in extracting and burning fossil fuel, and in fostering more rapid warming.

As for "Real Science", I'm sorry, but the briefest glance at that website reveals it to be an Orwellian use of language. If that's in any way representative, I can see why the discussion keeps diverting to the political, because frankly there's NO science there.

A real scientist searches for answers. When the data leads in unexpected, undesirable directions (as they did for Darwin, causing him deep unease) a real scientist has the dispassion and integrity to nevertheless follow the data.
Your linked website has the answer, and searches, with remarkable ineptness and apparent lack of success, for data.

Following the money is what people do for whom money is worth more than knowledge.

Such people would be idiots to opt for science, and idiots tend not to garner credibility.

Given the point I made earlier about the profitability of fossil fuels, and considering also the rest of those who stand to gain the most from rampant economic growth, it would not be surprising if the preponderance of such people end up on Micah's side of this argument.

What is surprising is that this is the side which keeps chanting "Follow the money"
It's almost like a malefactor who unconsciously wants to be caught...
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Old 23-08-2012, 09:10   #54
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Re: What's Happening to Glacier Ice - Hard, Gritty Evidence

Quote:
Originally Posted by micah719 View Post
A highly informed non-BS article that explains alarmist rhetorical mistakes, demonstrated and refuted in a richly manured example of an alarmist shipwrecked by a skeptic. A great read!

http://o.b5z.net/i/u/10152887/f/Publ...1_20120725.pdf
Your reference is written by 'Lord Monkton', who is neither a Lord nor a scientist. His degree is in classics and a diploma in journalism - no science at all.

He was requested by the House of Lords to stop infering that he is a member in this letter to him.
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Old 23-08-2012, 09:53   #55
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Re: What's Happening to Glacier Ice - Hard, Gritty Evidence

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Originally Posted by Kenomac View Post
It's summertime.... The artic ice is supposed to melt. At least once a year I have the awesome pleasure of flying over the polar ice cap during Springtime. It's enormous.... Some of you global warming alarmists should put down your pen and agenda and get out and see for youself what's actually going on... You'll quickly change your mind regarding the issue.
You should follow your own advice me thinks. The arctic sea ice is about to lowest ever during the records.. and there's still a month to go before the yearly minimum Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag
For me , it turns the northeast passage to a realistic shortcut to pacific..
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Old 23-08-2012, 11:40   #56
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Re: What's Happening to Glacier Ice - Hard, Gritty Evidence

foolishsailor, Andrew;
Nice arguments. Interesting how the, so called, anti-alarmists keep posting obfuscation instead of facts. Makes me wonder who they work for.

It seems that where I live we have had extreme hot temps with either no wind or gales, sometimes both within one day. This past winter we had almost no snow until March. A friend of mine who sails Lake Winnipeg has been out once this year, although he admits there were a few times that there was good sailing weather but he missed them. Many vegetable crops have been growing to fast because of the heat. South of us, in the mid US states, grain crops are decimated. Extreme weather patterns seem to be appearing all over the world. This month a huge storm in the Arctic has delivered a blow to the arctic ice such as has never been recorded before.
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Old 23-08-2012, 12:34   #57
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Almost all of the worlds scientists agree that global warming is caused by mans burning of fossil fuels. I welcome your dissent if you are a climatologist yourself.
Are YOU a climatologist? If not, then who are you to limit dissenting opinions only to those more qualified than yourself?

It is not true that "almost all of the world's scientists agree." More accurately, almost all the world's untrained news reporters agree.
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Old 23-08-2012, 12:50   #58
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Re: What's Happening to Glacier Ice - Hard, Gritty Evidence

A reminder not to invoke personal attacks or question motives, but to stick with viewpoints that are relevant to the OP's post.
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Old 23-08-2012, 13:33   #59
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Re: What's Happening to Glacier Ice - Hard, Gritty Evidence

"Could it be that this present warming trend is not man-made but is part of the same cycle or mechanism that allowed the Vikings to flourish on Greenland?"

Aside from the fact that the Norse cleverly called a frozen land "Greenland" and a warmer gentler one "Iceland" when the two were named? Yeah, that Norse sense of humour extended to some of the earliest PR jobs.

The colonies on Greenland eventually perished as it got too cold to survive there. They got started during an abnormal warm period.

What's "normal" ? If you want to look, there are climate records going back millenia. Normal includes the "year without summer" around 1300, when kingdoms toppled in the north. Presumably a normal volcanic eruption and dust problem that blanketed the globe. Yes, we'll have more of those.

Then there was the diversion of global ocean currents when Central America locked up and blocked things.

And the current warm period which has raised the sea levels worldwide about 300 feet. Forget complaints from the Pacific now, there are anthropologists and archaeologists who can't study old villages because they've been 300 feet under sea level for thousands of years now.

Normal? Freeze, drown, broil. That's normal. Aren't there fossil palm trees in Antarctica?

NORMAL DOESN'T MATTER. Understanding the changes, the rates of change, and making sure that civilization can accomodate to them, matters. Or not. If a couple billion drown and a couple billion more starve, the survivors should be a better breed for it. That's the theory, anyway.
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Old 23-08-2012, 13:54   #60
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Re: What's Happening to Glacier Ice - Hard, Gritty Evidence

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Originally Posted by Kenomac View Post
'just came back from Guernsey, 30 ft tides... Unbelievable.
Yeah, over there the tides are a touch on the small side , the odd one over here gets over 40', albeit usually top out at 38. Not to say that all our coastal defences were built to cope with those, at least not in a blow - but that nice Mr Hitler built us some cracking sea defences (as part of the Atlantic Wall), many of them including room for a gun. a large one........surprised we don't get more American visitors .

although we did have a real tiddler a couple of weeks back. 24' ......someone somewhere must have left the plug out .

FWIW, the "natural" state of the earth is barren and lifeless (if measured by what it has mostly been and what it will become - whatever Al Gore etc steal from my pocket).
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