Spratly Islands, a real potential HOT spot

[beiland]

Originally Posted by Suijin

.....
a raft of other international issues, with force, in their back yard, when they have not even impacted international shipping through this route. And they won't, because most of it is their exports.

Believe me this is just not true. As I've said you do not understand their mindsets,...very often illogical thinking as we westerns think.

[beiland]

Originally Posted by Lepke

As a multi year Vietnam vet, I say the SCS is a long way from here. If we get too worked up, at best we may find ourselves in a small shooting war. You never know where that may lead.

Was Vietnam a 'long way from here'? Was Iraq a long way also? Was Bosnia a long way from here?

A President who makes very stupid Twitter statements, and likely ego and uniformed driven decisions, I'm thinking this escalation in tensions could come very quickly.

[beiland]

Originally Posted by SV Windrush II

Exactly.. it's easy to slap around a mad dog, but slapping a roaring lion may have adverse affects

Good point.

[beiland]

Originally Posted by SV Windrush II

China believes the whole SE Asian sea should be under their control, and the Philippines should just be happy that China is only taking over a few atolls.
And yes they are Chinese Navy bases set up to control the region. They also do not recognize any US presence in the area and believe that the US should stay away from Asian waters.
Whether we agree or not, this is their agenda and they have the power to make it happen. There is no SE Asian country that is strong enough to oppose them, and the US is not about to go to war over it.

I personally would avoid sailing anywhere close to these disputed islands as the Chinese patrol boats are not friendly to cruisers.

Yes there is no nation other than the US that could oppose them. And the Chinese realize this and will make a point of their power over the area (international waters, BTW) verses ours via the US Navy.

And I think the Philippines will come to regret their current belligerency towards the USA. They should have instead invited us back into Subic Bay as a deterrent to this SCS situation.

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by beiland

Yes there is no nation other than the US that could oppose them. And the Chinese realize this and will make a point of their power over the area (international waters, BTW) verses ours via the US Navy.

I think you are forgetting the battles the 38th anniversary of which were commemorated just a few days back: when Vietnam brought an invasion of 500,000 PLA soldiers to a halt and then forced them back.


I further think you have neglected identifying which nation occupies the most islands in the Spratly group. And has militarized most of them (meaning that that nation possesses more militarized islands in the Spratly group than the PRC or ROC.


On the 38th anniversary, see VNExpress:
Remembering Vietnam's bloody border war with China - VnExpress International


On Vietnam's islands in the Spratly group, see any or all of:
Vietnam Begins Its Own Island-Building Project in the South China Sea - Breitbart


Vietnam expanding South China Sea runway: U.S. think tank | Reuters


Forbes Welcome


Vietnam Influences China’s Quiet Legal Compliance In South China Sea Dispute – Analysis – Eurasia Review

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

On the 38th anniversary, see VNExpress:
Remembering Vietnam's bloody border war with China - VnExpress International

Radio Free Asia has reported that the Party and govt in Vietnam gave uneven coverage to the anniversary, reporting it in only some media and controlling some popular commemorations. Showing that the VN-PRC relationship is sensitive and, from the Party's perspective, needs be carefully managed. See:


Vietnamese Police Detain Citizens Marking Anniversary of War With China

[beiland]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

I think you are forgetting the battles the 38th anniversary of which were commemorated just a few days back: when Vietnam brought an invasion of 500,000 PLA soldiers to a halt and then forced them back.
Remembering Vietnam's bloody border war with China - VnExpress International

You are correct here, I had forgotten all about that 'war'. But I don't think it was any major undertaking,...rather brief skirmish to announce intentions...a Chinese way...
"also known as the Third Indochina War, was a brief border war fought between the People's Republic of China and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam in early 1979. China launched the offensive in response to Vietnam's invasion and occupation of Cambodia in 1978 (which ended the rule of the Chinese-backed Khmer Rouge"

I further think you have neglected identifying which nation occupies the most islands in the Spratly group. And has militarized most of them (meaning that that nation possesses more militarized islands in the Spratly group than the PRC or ROC.
Vietnam Begins Its Own Island-Building Project in the South China Sea - Breitbart
Vietnam expanding South China Sea runway: U.S. think tank | Reuters

How many islands is that??

From what I understand they began the reclamation of one island with an airstrip, but in a full year +, not much has gotten done?

Then there is a vague reference to placing some missiles on another few.?
Many of these islands are (were) no more than coral outcroppings that were awash at high tide.

Takes MAJOR work to make them an island. Only the Chinese have invested that much work,...and its not just for fishing rights ! In fact much of Vietnam's waters has been fished out by the Japanese long-liners. It a bit of a wasteland now. The combination of Vietnam and Thailand fisherman have fished much of the waters off Cambodia and the big Gulf of Thailand.

Vietnam Influences China’s Quiet Legal Compliance In South China Sea Dispute – Analysis – Eurasia Review

That was interesting, particularly this little paragraph,...

"That is why Vietnam concentrates on pursuing legal arguments in their disputed land features and even fishery operations. It certainly helps that The Hague ruled that no feature in the Spratlys is a habitable feature in its natural state, and therefore, no feature is an island as defined in UNCLOS, that would be entitled to a 200- nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
This greatly reduces the allegedly legal ground China has been using for fomenting conflict: the unfounded claim of 200-mile Continental Shelf or Exclusive Economic Zone EEZ emanating from the baseline of some small rocks, which are interpreted by China as islands. The Vietnamese understand the principle of how land dominates the sea. Hanoi’s legal scholars are examining the advisability of presenting a lawsuit for review by the Arbitral Tribunal to confirm the legal status of land features in the contested Paracels."

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by beiland

That was interesting, particularly this little paragraph,...

"That is why Vietnam concentrates on pursuing legal arguments in their disputed land features and even fishery operations. It certainly helps that The Hague ruled that no feature in the Spratlys is a habitable feature in its natural state, and therefore, no feature is an island as defined in UNCLOS, that would be entitled to a 200- nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
This greatly reduces the allegedly legal ground China has been using for fomenting conflict: the unfounded claim of 200-mile Continental Shelf or Exclusive Economic Zone EEZ emanating from the baseline of some small rocks, which are interpreted by China as islands. The Vietnamese understand the principle of how land dominates the sea. Hanoi’s legal scholars are examining the advisability of presenting a lawsuit for review by the Arbitral Tribunal to confirm the legal status of land features in the contested Paracels."

Yes, it was a most interesting ruling in The Hague.


I think it is because of the potential for such a ruling on UNCLOS that the US always stayed well away from signing UNCLOS.


The longevity of that ruling is unclear.


Several jurists have since argued that the ruling - applying a test that a thingie that sticks above the water is only an island if it sustains human population - is wrong.

The key point is that an island allows an EEZ claim. A rock that doesn't sustain human life does not allow an EEZ claim.


If the ruling is law, then several nations will find their EEZ massively reduced. They include Japan and Australia (which currently claims an EEZ extending from Heard Island, Macdonald Island, etc - none of which sustain life - and from the supposed Aus Antarctic Territory. Aus uses that EEZ claim to deny Japanese whalers operation in a supposed whale sanctuary). Japan's EEZ claim is similarly shrunken by that ruling.


Some have taken the legal argument further, suggesting that if that ruling stands, then any island population that has to import food and water (eg Singapore, Australia's Christmas I, the Cocos (Keeling) Is, etc) cannot claim an EEZ.


Taiwan is unhappy at the ruling because it denys Taiwan an EEZ around Itu Abu (aka Taiping Island), the island which hosted the Japanese submarine base during WW2. The ruling focused on Taiping, its water supply, and historical attempts at agriculture there.


You can see the minefield created by that ruling.


And why the US is happy that it never signed up to UNCLOS.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Madwand

The British Empire held Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Tonga, Fiji, Western Samoa, India, Burma, Papa New Guinea, Malaya, Sarawak, Brunei, Oman, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, Northern and Southern Rhodesia, Tanganyika, Zanzibar, Mauritius, the Maldives, South Africa, Swaziland, Nigeria, Gold Coast, and Sierra Leone, among other countries during its reign. It has also held a portion of the present day United States and China.

Was it done without conflict or subjugation? Seems quite the benefit. [COLOR="rgb(46, 139, 87)"]And I don't recall any recent wars the U.S. was involved in alone.[/COLOR]

Grenada? Not only alone but also the only conflict the US has been involved in over the last 70 years that has been a decisive victory ( for the US ) .....