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Old 26-03-2009, 15:55   #271
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I think it's fair to say that the 'collapse' has already happened. Where is the best place to be, right now?

It's not as if the institutions of civilization would disappear overnight. We still have schools, fire/police departments, manufacturing equipment, educated workforce, etc. Apart from a war or pandemic, losing these things would take time, and likely happen gradually. It's not as if we're going to wake up one day in Mad Max.

Actually, I'm quite a bit more worried about how the global economy is going to deal with a few technology advances that I see today, in my labs. Hopefully, someone is doing some R&D on how to transition to a post-scarcity economy. Interesting times ahead.
I'm not so sure we had seen the total collapse or even the tip of the iceberg, so to speak. If you google "Peter Schiff" and listen to the things he talks about, you may wonder the same. Peter Schiff was the guy that predicted this situation we are in now. He was ridiculed for it until it happened of course.
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Old 26-03-2009, 18:41   #272
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It's odd, my wife made 4K last year through self employment. Taxes - 1790 federal and 271 state. At the same time there are hedge fund managers who netted well over 100 million last year and are taxed at 15% because it's considered capital gains. Hmmm.
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Old 26-03-2009, 19:16   #273
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You wouldn't pay more for an older car; why pay more for an older house?
I would, I cant get a house built like this anymore, the trees for the timber dont even exist anymore.

Plus because it's an older house, it more than likely is closer to the CBD, work and infrastructure, making the overall package more valuable




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Old 26-03-2009, 19:37   #274
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I would, I cant get a house built like this anymore, the trees for the timber dont even exist anymore.

Plus because it's an older house, it more than likely is closer to the CBD, work and infrastructure, making the overall package more valuable




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I love disagreeing with you Dave. I built this 3 years ago for less than buying one already built new or old. Maybe its different in the US. Lots of lumber here!
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Old 27-03-2009, 04:19   #275
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Old 27-03-2009, 07:37   #276
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cat man do,
that's a great place you have. I'd pay more for that one, but in any commodity, there are some that are special and are, thus, worth more money. Over time old-growth timber is no longer available, craftsmanship declines, designs become more generic, good locations are taken... houses exist that can't be reproduced. What I'm talking about is that, here in the US, for many years any cookie-cutter, cheapo structure, located beside the highway, that didn't fall down was expected to increase in price. I'm not talking about small increases either. People'd pay $100k for a house and five years later they'd say it was worth $200k. No, it wasn't. Just because you can sucker somebody into paying twice what something is worth doesn't mean it's worth twice as much. One of the main precipitating factors in our current mess is that everybody got to believing that such foolishness would just keep on going. It couldn't. If you blow into a balloon long enough & hard enough, it's going to pop.

This brand of foolishness isn't new. Remember the collapse of Holland's tulip economy.
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Old 27-03-2009, 07:59   #277
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... People'd pay $100k for a house and five years later they'd say it was worth $200k. No, it wasn't. Just because you can sucker somebody into paying twice what something is worth doesn't mean it's worth twice as much. One of the main precipitating factors in our current mess is that everybody got to believing that such foolishness would just keep on going. It couldn't. If you blow into a balloon long enough & hard enough, it's going to pop.

This brand of foolishness isn't new. Remember the collapse of Holland's tulip economy.
Buying something, on the basis that someone else will buy it off you at a higher price, is to believe in the “Bigger Fool” theory - the idea that even if you are a fool to buy, a bigger fool will come along shortly. The bigger fool theory relies on market optimism, and market momentum concerning a particular asset, or the market as a whole.

When buying an investment (an internet stock in the mid 1990s, or real estate in 2004) one needn't worry too much about whether your investment is worth what you paid for it or not, or even if there is any reliable way to measure how much it is worth. Even if you believe it to be overvalued, you need only care about if someone else will buy it from you at a later date, at a higher price. If you believe this to be so, then you can profit from the investment.

In short, all you have to do is to find a bigger fool than yourself.

In a bubble, sooner or later the market runs out of fools, reality finally trumps psychology, and the last fool loses money as the bubble "pops".

Anyone hear the sound of bubbles popping?
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Old 27-03-2009, 08:16   #278
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If you blow into a balloon long enough & hard enough, it's going to pop.
Yeah, but at least you get to feel lightheaded and dizzy for awhile.
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Old 27-03-2009, 08:51   #279
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I heard the bubble pop weeks ago. Now all I can hear are the talking heads saying we're starting to turn it around and the wind whistling by my window as the plane plummets towards the Earth.
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Old 27-03-2009, 11:59   #280
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I heard the bubble pop weeks ago. Now all I can hear are the talking heads saying we're starting to turn it around and the wind whistling by my window as the plane plummets towards the Earth.
If you just heard it pop weeks ago, you weren't listening during 2007 and 2008.

By the way, your doomsday feelings are well-known now.
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Old 27-03-2009, 12:18   #281
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Two things were working there. First, I've tried to ignore politics/economics as much as possible for years now, so there was much I missed. Secondly, I've known we were sliding towards the edge for 20 years, but most people thot I was a nut (they might have been right). I've used the balloon analogy for many years and the morning after the Government started buying banks, I called my mother (one who thot that, at least in political terms, I was a nut) to ask if she heard to pop?
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Old 27-03-2009, 13:11   #282
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Don't forget to save 3 months or more of your salary for the diamond, you know the stone that was dug out of the ground ?
Oh and does that bra really make your chest bigger, or am I going to be disapointed when I remove it ?

Just two more dissapointments in my long life.... and yeah the bubble hasen's even popped yet, just the small ones.

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Old 28-03-2009, 04:37   #283
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Actually, I'm quite a bit more worried about how the global economy is going to deal with a few technology advances that I see today, in my labs. Hopefully, someone is doing some R&D on how to transition to a post-scarcity economy. Interesting times ahead.
Fascinating post. Are we talking intelligent protien cell injection here?

I am fascinated by the idea that we will one day (maybe) be able to catch two fish, and then inject protien cells into one of them, to create our chips.
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Old 28-03-2009, 16:29   #284
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Maybe its different in the US. Lots of lumber here!
Yes, it is different here, real shortage of good quality timber, old places were Cedar, Oregon, silky oak, various gums and pines.

New places are crap radiata pine that is still growing. There are some builders that will still build in the old style (I think I found 2 in Brisbane), but they cost many hundreds of thousands more than new brick and tile with crap pine frame.

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Old 28-03-2009, 16:34   #285
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cat man do,
that's a great place you have.
Thats not actually mine, I wish it was, but I do have this one that I had cut in half and moved to a new location, in my collection.



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