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Old 15-07-2008, 21:31   #31
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Originally Posted by Hud3 View Post

Beware of the Speculator mascarading as a someone who really knows what he's talking about.
I agree completly but here are some interesting "facts"

The world is flat
Man will never fly (maybe women will)
If you drive a vehicle faster than a horse can run it will catch fire
if you split the atom the world will either implode or explode
The sound barrier is impenetrable
Space travel is impossible

So even the smart guys have to be called into question once in a while...
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Old 15-07-2008, 23:12   #32
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I like to read.....when the subject is sailing and "the dark stormy night scenarios" pop up...I always make a mental note of how they solved the problem.

As far as "The Skipper being right"....Most of the time (as a paid crewmember) it has been a two way street......but when it hits the fan...so to speak....you give the info to the Captain and he makes the decisions.....It has worked that way for years with me. And I am fine with it.
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Old 16-07-2008, 05:36   #33
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Hi all,
and again I thank you for your replys. I have been struggling with my self as to why I posted this in the first place.
:The silliest thing is to stick your head up in the trenches...to be taken out by friendly fire, .....is your own fault)'''::
I guess it was a personal frustration. Something that I wanted from this site (this conversation). that was, for me not happeneing. A real and gentle talk about cruising in boats.A discussion...sure robust...but never detrimental. The catalyst for my disquiet, was the guns and pirates topics. I wanted the discussion and debate to be real.
By real I mean, personal. We can deliberate about weapons systems...
I want to hear from people who have been through our troubled areas recently. NOT the realitive meritits of one bullet/rifle over another.
To me that is such a small part of the burden and beauty of sailing that I find the time spent on it, out of proportion. I find that some of OUR discussions give new comers a very warped idea of what cruising is about...And I dont like it..

Gord as you have posted about thinking...I agree and there fore I have thought..and answered.
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Old 16-07-2008, 06:55   #34
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Cooper/Pirates/Experience

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Originally Posted by cooper View Post
The catalyst for my disquiet, was the guns and pirates topics. I wanted the discussion and debate to be real.
By real I mean, personal. We can deliberate about weapons systems...
I want to hear from people who have been through our troubled areas recently.

At the risk of serious thread drift...

I live 20 miles or less from the Straits of Mallaca, To get to Phuket, Langkawi, Penang, etc. from here you go via the straits. I have done it once. But I speak to sailors every single week who transit the Straits a lot.

Every Regatta sees 8-10 boats or more moving up and then back. Then there are pleasure trips/cruises. There is someone I know personally or second hand is transiting the Straits almost every week or at least month. I think I have heard one second hand account of piracy in the straits and these are from friends who have been cruising these waters for 30+ years.

I don't get into the guns topics as each person has to make a personal choice about that - I do know that no one I know here carries weapons. And while piracy is a real risk, the actual act vs. discussion of acts is way out of proportion.

The biggest factor is knowing how, when and where to transit a bad neighborhood.

So, Cooper, getting a real first-hand "experienced" based discussion going on piracy is going to be troublesome. There just isn't that much experience...

So in terms on piracy discussions, I have no experience but I have first hand "lack of experience" accounts from people who live in a reported "pirate dense" environment with an accumulated sailing experience of over *1,000 sailing years...

Sometimes that's the best info we can get.

(* = Call it 50 sailors with 20 years of sailing here each)
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Old 16-07-2008, 07:29   #35
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I agree with Dan’s assertion that piracy against yachts is a relatively rare occurrence. Were it more common, I would expect to see more reports of piracy or “lost” yachts (which might be attributed to piracy, or not).

A favorite saying of apologists, who have no evidence to support their positions, is that the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence*. In other words, they mean that just because they cannot find evidence that an event (such as Yacht Piracy) happened, does not mean that it hasn’t happened.

Logically, the absence of evidence, is not evidence of absence.
Under the vast majority of real-life circumstances, a cause may not reliably produce signs of itself; but the absence of the cause is even less likely to produce the signs. The absence of an observation may be strong evidence of absence or very weak evidence of absence, depending on how likely the cause is to produce the observation. The absence of evidence may be evidence of nothing at all, except our ignorance*.

* The Fermi paradox is the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations.

However, if we expect that something (like Yacht Piracy) will have observable effects if it exists, and it doesn't have observable effects (few reports), it probably doesn't exist. The stronger our prior belief that something would, if it existed, have observable effects, the more absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

As Carl Sagan said; “You can't convince a believer of anything; for their belief is not based on evidence, it's based on a deep seated need to believe.”
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Old 16-07-2008, 07:37   #36
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Good grist for the thinking mill Gord...
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Old 16-07-2008, 08:41   #37
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Gord...wonderfull...but it dosnt have to be that much verbage...Ex Calif has stated that there is not a lot of pirate action happening...so why do we spend so much time "talking" about it. It seems to be such a hard thing for me to explain. The talk is out of proportion to the real situation. To be blunt "boys own books stuff". And I dont like it. Its making cruising seem like you have to arm up and armour down. I am wrong huh....Four hundred and forty posts.....on one bloody thread....till it got shut down...
I would love to see a post on storm tactics that lasts that long...It seems that some subjects hold peoples attention more than others...subjects that in reality have only a fraction of time to do with cruising.... And I will be blunt...again ...most peolpe are not that bad and so much dedication to " protecting oneself from the enemy"...I dont like it. Bugger it how about protecting your head from an accidental hard gybe...way more people die from that...
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I guess I have just blown it again...but so be it...
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Old 16-07-2008, 08:58   #38
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Unfortunately people the car crashes in a race more than the actual race....we are a complex creature!
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Old 16-07-2008, 09:03   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cooper View Post
Gord...wonderfull...but it dosnt have to be that much verbage...Ex Calif has stated that there is not a lot of pirate action happening...so why do we spend so much time "talking" about it. It seems to be such a hard thing for me to explain. The talk is out of proportion to the real situation...
You are, of course, correct. I do tend towards pedantry.
My submission had as much to do with general thinking skills, and forming opinions; as it did with the specific subject of piracy.
Sorry for pontificating.
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Old 16-07-2008, 09:57   #40
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Originally Posted by GordMay;183271A
favorite saying of apologists, who have no evidence to support their positions, is that the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence*.
Gord I have no problem with your pontificating. In fact you point out the theory that relates to why we talk about these things.

I put it another way.

Talking about the one car crash this year at an intersection is way more "fun" than talking about the 60,000 cars that went by and didn't crash.

However, there is no freakin' way I would go gunkholing along the coast of Indonesia at night...
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Old 16-07-2008, 11:52   #41
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Originally Posted by cooper View Post
I have been struggling with my self as to why I posted this in the first place.
I don't think you are alone on feeling that after writing a post. In fact I know you are not and IMO nothing wrong with voicing ones concerns / views, and dare I say......"opinions"

Quote:
The catalyst for my disquiet, was the guns and pirates topics. I wanted the discussion and debate to be real.
I am pretty sure if someone was dumb enuf to admit anything too "interesting" on how their attitudes have been created from experiances that the post would be yanked anyway......but, IMO the threads are quite illumuninating on attitudes and experiances from around the globe - even if basically sod all to do with boats and pirates! And threads like that act kinda like fly paper in attracting "discussions" away from elsewhere more boaty. But that is just my opinion

Quote:
I find that some of OUR discussions give new comers a very warped idea of what cruising is about...And I dont like it..
But I think these sorts of thread are very much in the minority. even if rather longggggggggg when they get going ............and just cos' someone is new to this forum does not mean that they are not well aware of how internet forums work - IME popular forums all have areas / subjects which generate more heat than light. CF.com is well below average, which makes it above average
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Old 16-07-2008, 12:03   #42
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A PATENT ON PEDANTRY (save this for bedtime reading, its guaranteed to get you an early night's rest)

Outside of verifiable, repeatable scientific tests, an opinion is all we have. It is the median of our human experience; what we have seen, what we have heard, what we have been told or have chosen for ourselves to believe to be of value. It cannot be separated from personal bias, or the prejudice for or against the source of the information. It is the nature of our wetware to blend things together, just as we do not see our blind spots in the eye, even when we know there are no optical receptors there. Objectivity is alien to the human experience, possibly as a survival trait: primitive people instinctively reacted to an event because they did not have time or inclination to test hypotheses, to wonder if the tiger was hungry, or more interested in mating. They ran, they survived. Tiger equals run in primitive man's universe.

An opinion does not become a fact even if we experienced something. Perception to comprehension to memory to recollection are all biological processes passing thru those filters and blenders several times, and at each step the raw data gets hammered into words we have been taught on a best fit basis. Instead of IMO we should say ”In my experience”, or “I recall.”

The Scientific Revolution is not over; it is still fighting an uphill battle. Few of us can resolve what we 'know from rigorous objective double blind testing' with what we call our intuition*. So we select our science to support our intuition. Why else would there be so many different anchor tests? And how we interpret the results of scientific testing is still a product of filtering that data through the biological blender of our language and human experience.

How can we rely on someone to tell us the better of two or three choices, when we have no way of knowing they derived their opinion from testing those choices in rigorous conditions and calculated their results from objective, verifiable data? We cannot. Ultimately, we value someone's opinion by how well we like him!

How do you know when a salesman is lying? His lips are moving. We laugh at that because we sense an underlying truth. The salesman's motives are obvious. We have based our judgment of the value of his opinion on something he did NOT say. He is no friend of ours, no matter how personable or amusing he might be. We don't like him. We do like someone who is well spoken, seems to approve of our values, and doesn't prickle any hairs with suspicious motives or other wierdnesses. We also like good looking people, and friendly wealthy, wise, or powerful people. That's why Danny DeVito doesn't do deodorant ads.

Egotism rules absolutely. We value power expressed in wealth or position, beauty, or wisdom. We value other things as well, but power is closer to the survival end of the spectrum of human motivation. Only when we are secure in our power over the world around us can we value more esoteric things. This is why we scramble for wealth and position, assume the mantle of wisdom, or enhance our attractiveness; to defend our egos. There are antitheses to these pursuits, such as piety, solitude, or victimhood, but even they may rise to defend their opinions. It is equally important to defend our past decisions, our choice of boats, and our wives' choice of husbands. We certainly did not try every option in every condition or circumstance. There are probably laws against doing just that. [Time, circumstance, and wealth set limits on that depth of research.]

Our opinion is as important as our perception of our wisdom, and we may need to defend it energetically. We collect references and reports just as an ancient warrior collected rocks and arrows, to defend by attack! We can allow other a different opinion if it’s not too different, so that we may call on them to support an attack on a more opposite view. What is most important to understand is that when the debate seems all out of proportion to the bare issue, we are assured that egos are at war, and cold hard facts are totally irrelevant.

SO: if we are trying to use other people's opinions to help us make a decision (and not just provoke a debate for entertainment purposes) we have a few tools. The most secure responder is the least likely to pad an observation to defend his opinion. His reply is non-confrontational, unemotional, and stated like a contribution rather than thrust like a weapon. He is able to laugh at himself, and will readily admit to error. If, on the other hand, he is always confrontational, he may be throwing down the gauntlet, to fight for a better opinion of his opinion! Even his own experiences to the contrary will not turn him from the battle. The issue may be of little personal interest, but he has gathered a few facts like stones and arrows, just for a fight. There is an obvious chip on his shoulder. He will beat a dead horse until the last of his audience wanders away.

A recent buzz word has relevance; someone who has 'issues' is easy to spot. Beware someone who constantly cites his authority. He clearly needs to believe his opinion is important. Don't let someone's personality get in the way. Since absolutely no one has access to absolute truth, our humanity colors our experience. Recognize the direction of someone's bias and correct accordingly. Their personality is a clue about how to adjust.

If someone assumes authority because they have been making single successful choices over a long period of time without killing themselves, it does not mean they are wise enough to pronounce judgment on something outside their direct experience. It does mean that their decision process is successful, just less valid than someone who makes a recommendation after actual experience. Likewise assuming expertise based on reading someone else's expertise is as real as feeling beautiful because you've read a beauty magazine. And the internet is clear evidence that the printed word is less intrinsically valuable than an unprinted word. It may be good, it may be sacred, and it may be an unjustifiable imposition upon a number of electrons. Give less credibility to someone who cannot cite their source, but remember that this is a casual forum and not a collegiate debate. There are no judges, clocks, or prizes. No one but the self-evident poseurs go home in disgrace.

*By intuition and instinct I mean more than a racial memory or a genetically encoded response to a stimulus. I mean it to include how we are shaped by evolution, and the lessons we learned observing the verbal and nonverbal actions of our family and neighbors. We can learn to avoid fire by actual experience, or by being taught to do so. Language itself shapes our perceptions.
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Old 16-07-2008, 18:09   #43
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GordMay To much verbage on my part too I suspect ..... : )
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Old 16-07-2008, 18:18   #44
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Are some people around here trying to become psychologist's[1] by over analysing why “people talk about firearms”???

Regardless of how small the risk factor of piracy, its up to the individual whether or not they plan for it (re: firearms), just like planning for other scenario's such as shipping containers, demasting, lost of sails, contaminated fuel, lightning strike, fire, flooding, storm[2] tactics etc etc.

[1] The only psychologist I ever met was a woman who had a jealous rage over her husband
[2] A real storm, none of this girlie 40kts stuff that the catty boys can't handle
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Old 16-07-2008, 18:19   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cooper View Post
Gord...wonderfull...but it dosnt have to be that much verbage...Ex Calif has stated that there is not a lot of pirate action happening...so why do we spend so much time "talking" about it. It seems to be such a hard thing for me to explain. The talk is out of proportion to the real situation. To be blunt "boys own books stuff". And I dont like it. Its making cruising seem like you have to arm up and armour down. I am wrong huh....Four hundred and forty posts.....on one bloody thread....till it got shut down...
I would love to see a post on storm tactics that lasts that long...It seems that some subjects hold peoples attention more than others...subjects that in reality have only a fraction of time to do with cruising.... And I will be blunt...again ...most peolpe are not that bad and so much dedication to " protecting oneself from the enemy"...I dont like it. Bugger it how about protecting your head from an accidental hard gybe...way more people die from that...
.
.


I guess I have just blown it again...but so be it...
Cooper you can answer your own question by answering the question, Why do you worry so much about it? You will find so many other issues and concerns in the cruising process that piracy and guns will only come up in the movie theater. And I know from where I speak after 17 years at this. BTW you don't see me post in the guns or piracy thread.
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