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Old 01-03-2010, 16:06   #1
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Not a Joke Thread....

As a sailor, someone who observes weather, (I like to get out and sail as often as possible) However casual, I think what had been considered usual weather, 1960's to 2005, was the usual expectancy....however...the last, past few years have been very different. Now today with devastating earthquakes, and very noticeable polar melting, seems weather within the past two years globally has become more severe......I think as a result of the evidence, and there is that, things are changing.....not unusual in the wake of all time.......but current world events consider a big change....Am I alone on this, or are others observing, but have not yet said anything?
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Old 01-03-2010, 16:11   #2
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No your not alone in this observation but be very careful what you say.
Some would say its normal and others would disagree.
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Old 01-03-2010, 17:14   #3
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I work in stock market predictions (as a statistician/mathematician) and your statement is akin to me saying:

"I've been trading Apple and Netflix stocks and watching the news on occasion and have found that the whole global economy is more volatile than it ever has been"

When something is nearly random (on a day to day level), like the stock market or global weather it's extremely difficult to really describe without a lot of quantitative data. And even if you have a lot of really good data over a long period of time it's still difficult to predict/describe. And then if it changes... how we would really know if that's normal or not? Is the nature of weather to change or stay constant?

Is the weather really changing? Is it changing more than it has in the past? If so... what past are you talking about ... 1960-2005? 50 years is nothing in geological time... and it's about as much reliable weather data as we have. (Ice cores are another type of macro-weather data we have.)

And...is it that the weather is changing or that we have a better ability to measure changes in the weather?

And anyways, earthquakes don't have much to do with the weather or vice versa.
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Old 01-03-2010, 17:26   #4
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Yup, no joke. I've been watching this all winter. Temperature in Bonavista, Newfoundland, where I have my boat, has been 30F +/- 4F almost all winter.

Pack ice scarce off Eastern Canada

Lack of ice could hurt seal population

Last Updated: Monday, March 1, 2010 | 4:59 PM N



"Yes, there's only water around the island. There's no ice at all around the island. There's no ice at all," said veteran mariner Jean-Claude Lapierre. "I'm 69 years old and I never saw that before. I talked to the older people and it's the first time they saw that."
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Old 01-03-2010, 17:39   #5
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Now today with devastating earthquakes, and very noticeable polar melting, seems weather within the past two years globally has become more severe......I think as a result of the evidence, and there is that, things are changing.....
Sounds like not much fun for sailing in your part of the world - have you considered relocating?

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Old 01-03-2010, 17:42   #6
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I have been around only some 40 years, so I do not think my impressions count. Still, I cannot see any weather change at all. I remember very harsh winters when I was a kid, then we had no winter like for ages, now last 2 or 3 years - BOOM - the nordic winter has been back for good! So, even in my short horizon, it all seems cyclical.

The big change, well, the scientists claim it is cyclical too - it is a bit warmer now, but over lnger periods we might be in for another glacial stunt.

So, there is the change, but, as they say, the only thing that is permanent is a permanent change.

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Old 01-03-2010, 17:56   #7
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....Am I alone on this, or are others observing, but have not yet said anything?
Way too deep for the crowd that is going to get all spun up on this thread. I'm north of you, wish a little more of the global warming would float up as I have things to do!

There a thread that went off track on global warming a few months ago if you want a read along these lines.
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Old 01-03-2010, 18:58   #8
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the folks up north are saying theres no ice but here in florida I saw a salw water byou freeze. never saw that in 20 years. global warming huh...
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Old 01-03-2010, 19:32   #9
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I read an article written by a scientist (I don't remember where or who) studying ice cores taken from deep inside glaciers in either Greenland or Antarctica. They found that the weather patterns on Earth were very unstable and rapidly changing up until a relatively short time ago, when the current weather patern stabilized. They were not at all surprised to see things begin to change, stating that all patterns are cyclic, and the current period of mild global weather may well be coming to an end naturally.

I understand that we humans have affected the rate of that change, but what will come will come despite all of our efforts to the contrary.

Additionally, memory is a strange thing. The summers were allways better (hotter, cooler, dryer, wetter) and the winters were either milder or harsher depending on who you ask.

The last severe weather phenomenon I recall here in the US was the dust bowl. Drought that lasted for years, and yet in less than 5 decades the recovery was nearly complete and nobody even talked about it.
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Old 01-03-2010, 19:34   #10
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It’s now called climate change
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Old 01-03-2010, 19:51   #11
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the folks up north are saying theres no ice but here in florida I saw a salw water byou freeze. never saw that in 20 years. global warming huh...
Naw... its not Global Warming... its Earth Shift... have you not heard...
The 'Wobble' at the Poles used to be 7 to 9 degrees... in the last couple of years this has increased to 11 to 13 degrees....
It therefore follows that atmospheric and Ocean Currents are going to be disrupted...
The Northern Polar Airstreams have shifted from a Mid Atlantic bottoming to a Mid France one, resulting in the harsher than normal winters.
This shift is further reflected by the effect of the shift of the Azores High further southwest, resulting in the severe storms occuring in Madiera/Portugal/Spain/France, that are climbing up along new paths.
Personally I consider this an event that takes place every so often as the Earths balance reaches a point where it gets to top heavy, goes off its spin and topples to one side till it reaches a 'Balance' again.... and resumes a more regular rotation...
Then follows active reverse plate drift... as the tectonic plates absorb the new rotation and reverse away from their previous course.
Who knows where the 'New' warm sailing zones will be... Bumma if you've sailed from Nova Scotia to the Islands of the Carib.. only to find glaciers..
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Old 01-03-2010, 20:22   #12
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For all you old timers that remember the 60's well. Remember when the New York Times and other major papers used to scream about the oncoming ice age? Yep, in a matter of 40 years we've gone from ice age to global warming. It just all depends on what gets the attention and money.
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Old 01-03-2010, 20:24   #13
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Way too deep for the crowd that is going to get all spun up on this thread. I'm north of you, wish a little more of the global warming would float up as I have things to do!

There a thread that went off track on global warming a few months ago if you want a read along these lines.

When this thread goes off the way of all the ones that say the should-not-say-words it will be you that started it all again.

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Old 01-03-2010, 20:57   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gnitfar View Post
As a sailor, someone who observes weather, (I like to get out and sail as often as possible) However casual, I think what had been considered usual weather, 1960's to 2005, was the usual expectancy....however...the last, past few years have been very different. Now today with devastating earthquakes, and very noticeable polar melting, seems weather within the past two years globally has become more severe......I think as a result of the evidence, and there is that, things are changing.....not unusual in the wake of all time.......but current world events consider a big change....Am I alone on this, or are others observing, but have not yet said anything?
When things stop changing it will be the end of the universe.

Regarding the effects of the Chile earthquake, the axis of earth's rotation has changed 3 inches after the quake. Nasa Jet Propulsion Laboratory said, “The length of the day should have gotten shorter by 1.26 microseconds (millionths of a second),” Gross, said today in an e-mailed reply to questions. “The axis about which the Earth’s mass is balanced should have moved by 2.7 milliarcseconds (about 8 centimeters or 3 inches).”

The same thing happened with the Indonesian earthquake in 2004. Wikipedia -With a magnitude of between 9.1 and 9.3, it is the second largest earthquake ever recorded on a seismograph. This earthquake had the longest duration of faulting ever observed, between 8.3 and 10 minutes. It caused the entire planet to vibrate as much as 1 cm (0.4 inches)[5] and triggered other earthquakes as far away as Alaska.[6]

When I lived in Arabia, we found arrowheads in the desert from 8000 years ago when the ice age happened, and Arabia was a tropical paradise with lakes, forests, and lots of wild animals while Europe was covered in glaciers.

Antartica used to be joined to India before being separated through motion of tectonic plates.

When Krakatoa exploded in Indonesia, it darkened the skies of the globe for months.

There's no doubt about it. Things are changing.
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Old 01-03-2010, 21:22   #15
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The earth is a living breathing thing.....to think that man can alter it permanently is ludicrous.........we can screw it up in the short term.....but in the long run.....Mother Earth will beat us all down.....anthropogenic global warming......Nah...anthropogenic global cooling? Yup...it is called nuclear winter.

On good dose of volcanic flatulence will cool things down nicely.
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