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Old 11-06-2008, 11:28   #16
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Forgive the assumption based on your user name, but are people skipping oil changes?
I can see how you could make that assumption, but no, that's not my line of work ...construction is my game.
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Old 11-06-2008, 11:34   #17
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A recession is not defined by personal circumstances but by a decline in the GDP. Alexei has the right definition. Loose use of this word by the media has apparently spread to uninformed citizens.
I totally understand what you're saying, but what I'm saying is people that have lost their jobs in certain industries don't care what the definitions is...all they know is their life is in recession.
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Old 11-06-2008, 11:50   #18
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We can't possibly be in recession... the wealthy are still getting wealthier
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Old 11-06-2008, 11:56   #19
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Not to be a stick in the mud, but a recession is defined as two or more quarters of negative economic growth. There has not even been one quarter so far since the slowdown began that was negative. Therefore, the US is not in a recession. Q.E.D.

Don't believe everything you see on TV or hear from a politician. Especially in an election year. And especially about anything remotely resembling economics.
Not to put too fine a point on, but your advice in paragraph two seems to contradict your position in paragraph one.

That is, you accept the government's press releases as to GDP, unemployment, etc. but caution others not to believe everything they hear from a politician. Wouldn't that hold with bureaucrats, as well?

Oh, BTW, the accepted definition is not two or more quarters of negative GDP, but two consecutive such quarters.

If the methodology for calculating official economic statistics hadn't been changed, repeatedly, in the last 20-30 years with the inclusion of such dubious items as "birth/death models," "hedonics," "equivalent rents," "implied productivity," "core inflation" (excludes energy and food), the government would have had to acknowledge that we're already in a recession. Funny how all the tweaking of the methodology has always resulted in a lowering of the official inflation number.

Since that number is subtracted from the official GDP number, the smaller you can make it, the less the GDP number comes down. As it is, the 1Q08 GDP number was put at +.6% by the Commerce Department. Is it possible that, in an election year, someone was "encouraged" by a higher authority, thusly, "I don't care how you do it, don't let that number go negative!"

Personally, I've always preferred the simpler, "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job - a depression is when you lose yours."

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Old 11-06-2008, 14:35   #20
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Personally, I've always preferred the simpler, "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job - a depression is when you lose yours." TaoJones
I couldn't have put it more eloquently myself!
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