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Old 10-09-2010, 13:47   #136
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And so the expansion become linear instead of geometric. At some point in time the population will exceed 16-20 billion, then what? More technology?? At some time in the future we will exceed a sustainable population or at least a sustainable comfort level. Does it happen when the oceans are covered by floating villages??


It'd be a long time before that'd happen (except in Dubai, and only for the well heeled). And who's to say that Earth is the only place to live. A lot has happened in the last 100 years, I'd expect a lot more to happen in the next 100. I'd rather put my faith in technology than in draconian social engineering- the latter having an abysmal track record.



For logical thinking, I like David Old Jersey's approach.

You really have to remember that most of the planet is quite empty.

And as I recall, if we follow present trends the population will top out at under 10 billion. (Linear growth but with a declining slope).
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Old 10-09-2010, 13:52   #137
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Can one climate change scientist change the minds of a roomful of climate change sceptics?

In late June Insight recorded this program with internationally renowned climate change scientist Stephen Schneider.

A few weeks after we recorded this program, Stephen Schneider died on a flight from Stockholm to London. He was 65 and had been battling a serious illness.

Stephen Schneider was a passionate believer that science should engage directly with the public on the issue of climate change.

It was in this spirit that he appeared on INSIGHT.

He faced a crowd of 52 climate sceptics and they were asking the questions.

Watch the debate and find out if anyone changed their mind.

http://news.sbs.com.au/insight/episo...d/302#webextra

Amazing the patience that Dr. Schneider exhibited. May he rest in peace.
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Old 10-09-2010, 15:16   #138
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As to population growth, here is a graph from a DOD link graciously provided by Hpeer earlier.
- - You will notice world population reaching near to 10 billion by 2050. But the most relevant part of the graph to this discussion is the section at the bottom right side of the graph - - "Developed Countries" with only 1 billion people out of the 9.5 billion total. I would postulate that the other 8.5 billion either don't even know that such a thing as "Global Warming" exists and certainly have more important daily survival concerns than the theory of "AGW." Now take the 1 billion who might have heard of Global Warming and make a realistic estimate of how many of those really care and are willing to alter their lifestyle downwards to "save the planet." You, IMHO, will end up with a very infinitesimal figure. So Capt Bill's deer analogy is most reasonably the logical future.
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Old 10-09-2010, 15:36   #139
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As to population growth, here is a graph from a DOD link graciously provided by Hpeer earlier.
And note the declining slope for the "non-developed" part of the graph that is the most cause for concern. (which was my point anyway)

What I don't understand from your post is why it's necessary to lower one's standard of living to "save" anything. Actually those with a lower standard of living are the same people who are doing the most damage.

So one would think that the best solution would be to move people off subsistence living as fast as possible.
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Old 10-09-2010, 17:00   #140
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He faced a crowd of 52 climate sceptics and they were asking the questions.

Watch the debate and find out if anyone changed their mind.

SBS Insight

Amazing the patience that Dr. Schneider exhibited. May he rest in peace.
It is interesting how intractible people can be. Most admit to having no knowledge of the subject or of science and yet when someone who does offers clear explanations they seem unwilling to accept them.

Schneider was a great contributer to our knowledge and fought tirelessly. Amazing that ill as he was he woud still do something like this show.
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Old 10-09-2010, 18:21   #141
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After doing a fair bit of poking around at the evidence I have been convinced that human activity is doing a fair amount of harm to our plant ecosystems in general and the climate in particular. That is my considered opinion.

Interesting.

I believe the opposite.

Humans are doing little (read - nothing) that influences global climate changes but are wreaking havoc on ecosystems (read - plant and animal life).
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Old 10-09-2010, 18:24   #142
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But, out of curiosity, what do you think the chances are of climate change happening? Rough order of magnitude would do fine. 1:1, 1:10, 1:100

1:1.

It has changed before and still is.
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Old 10-09-2010, 18:34   #143
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I've enjoyed reading this thread. I spent the early part of my life working as a marine biologist and ecologist (scientific, not crackpot). I decided that there was in fact no hope of stopping the coming ecological catastrophe caused by human beings, so I got out of that field and decided to make some money to do what I enjoyed. As a few people have pointed out the earth is essentially a closed system and the resources available to us are finite. We (people in general) are consuming these resources at an ever increasing rate as the population grows and people try to increase their standard of living. Consuming those resources is the only thing that enables the planet to support nearly 7 billion people. The waste products produced are poisoning our environment and will continue to do so. For those with any training at all in microbiology you would recognize the growth curve of a colony of bacteria on a Petri dish. The colony grows on an exponential curve slowly at first then the growth curve goes vertical. This goes on until one of two things happens, the colony runs out of resources (food) or the colony's waste products poison the individuals and the population suddenly crashes to a very low level. The human population curve entered this vertical growth phase about 100 years ago. Human ingenuity has the ability to delay the crash, but it cannot prevent the crash. The human population crash will of course take a lot of species with it.

For those who might not think that these curves apply to higher animals I would point to an incident in the early 80s in Florida. There was a section of the everglades cut off by man made structures that prevented the local deer population from migrating, thus creating a closed system that was resource limited. Since there were essentially no deer predators in this area the population began to explode. Professional wildlife biologists decided to save most of the population the deer herd needed to be culled from 4500 individuals to about 2500. The Florida fish and game commission decided to allow hunters into the area to kill about 2000 of the deer. This had to be done before the middle of July of that year or the resources would be consumed beyond the ability of the area to support even the 2500 number. In early June a bunch of self appointed animal lovers and ecological do gooders with no knowledge, led by author Cleveland Amory managed to get a court injunction against the hunt, while they tried to capture and relocate the deer. They managed to capture 4 deer by the beginning of August all of which died from the shock of the capture process. By then of course the window for saving the majority of the population had passed and over four thousand deer died a slow and painful death from starvation. By then of course the do gooders were no where to be seen and the news media decided not to cover the consequences of their actions.

So which one will get us, lack of resources or pollution? I haven't got a clue; there are simply too many factors to consider. In the grand scheme of things global warming is just an inconvenience to people living along the coasts. Is there a man made component, probably? Are the oceans being destroyed by human activity? No, but they are being changed. The oceans will survive human beings and they will be different after we're gone. Coral scientists claim that global warming and ocean acidification will wipe out coral reefs and make corals extinct. Nonsense, corals have survived far worse than what humans are throwing at them and are still here. CO2 levels have been historically much higher (and the oceans much more acidic) than current predicted by GW scientists and we still have corals.

What most scientists are unwilling to say publically is that there is only one way to prevent an eventual ecological catastrophe. About 6 billion people have to get off the earth now. The problem is a lack of volunteers, and since we have a moral issue with culling people, there is no viable solution. Of course all of this presupposes that an asteroid or super volcano doesn't get us first.

So how am I going to handle this? I'm going sailing and I'm going to enjoy what we have while we have it.

Thank you for that.

I have been saying that for years but not as eloquently.

And yet most seem to be blind to it.
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Old 10-09-2010, 19:05   #144
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. So Capt Bill's deer analogy is most reasonably the logical future.

That's right.

As a group, we just ain't that smart.

Just hungry.
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Old 10-09-2010, 19:45   #145
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From the US National Snow and Ice Data Center



Quote:
In a report released Tuesday, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center described the opening of the Northwest Passage through Canada's Arctic islands and the "unusually fast" melting of ice in the Beaufort Sea as highlights of another extensive circumpolar thaw that has all northern nations — including Canada — scrambling to cope with increased Arctic ship traffic and to plan for potential oil and gas development.
"There are claims coming from some communities that the Arctic sea ice is recovering, is getting thicker again," Mark Serreze, director of the Colorado-based centre, told Postmedia News on Wednesday.
"That's simply not the case. It's continuing down in a death spiral."
Read more: Another big-ice Arctic thaw, say experts
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Old 10-09-2010, 19:57   #146
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From the US National Snow and Ice Data Center
Please don't confuse us with the facts. It might take all the fun out of attacking scientists and academics.
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Old 11-09-2010, 02:43   #147
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I am always disheartened by these threads. Pages and pages of debate about whether there is or is not global warming.

People going on ad nauseaum about this study or that study.

The conversation to be had is, "Just what do you specifically want me to do about it?"

If it is as simple as don't use plastic bags cool, I'm in.

If it is I jump out of my car and start walking while you, the smart one who identified the problem, continue to drive around in your car I am out.

Anything in between we can discuss.

(Context - When Al Gore's actual annual carbon footprint is smaller than mine, he can lecture me.)
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Old 11-09-2010, 06:04   #148
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The conversation to be had is, "Just what do you specifically want me to do about it?"
I don't want you to do anything about it.

I figure that the over population situation will eventually correct itself. If it happens soon enough then we may be able to avoid the worst of climate change, which will reduce the population.

What I am doing about it is trying to figure out ways that me and mine can survive what we are about to go through. That is a damn tough job and I don't have a real good feeling about the chances. Sailing figures promintently in my plans.

For me the conversation to be had is "What is the most likely short term failure scenario and how do we prepare for it, while having a hoot in the meantime."

But hey, that's just me.
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Old 11-09-2010, 07:28   #149
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So how am I going to handle this? I'm going sailing and I'm going to enjoy what we have while we have it.
What a great post. Possibly the only logical thing to do, I really do believe that the human speicies has no more conscious control over its' development and long term prospects as a species than the colony of bacteria on a Petri dish. Enjoy it while it lasts.
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Old 11-09-2010, 07:32   #150
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The main point I have been trying to make is that there is virtually nothing humans can do will alter the warming of the planet - that is a very natural hot/cold cycle that has been going on for billions of years. It has been reported that 3 or 4 times the Earth has been a "snowball" planet and likewise 3 or 4 times it has been virtually devoid of any ice - most recently during the few hundred millions of years the dinosaurs were walking about the place. Antarctica back then was a sub tropical forest when the dinosaurs hung out to get out of the super heat zones near the equator. And there was no shortage of flora and fauna back then witness all the oil and coal laying around.
- - According to the whole history of the earth's climate - 4+ billion years - we are coming out of a major cold epoch and heading back to a more average and hotter planet.
- - But all that aside there is one question nobody is answering - what so wrong with some "global warning?" Less ice means more water available and more land for growing food for the increasing world population. Most food is grown in the vast flatlands in the middle of continents which are a lot closer to the north pole than the equator. Coastal areas will see some sea level rise but since humans are unable or unwilling to do any cleaning up of these polluted, overpopulated areas maybe Mother Nature will take care of it for us by putting them underwater (maybe another biblical flood solution). People will move to higher and "newer" land areas. Increased ocean size means more area for fish to grow and feed us. According to the plate tectonics folks 65 million years ago you would walk almost all the way from South America to North America via what is now known as the Caribbean Islands (Panama didn't exist back then).
- - One of the studies quoted in this thread, pointed out that most folks do not want anything to change - they want what is here today to be be here tomorrow and forever. That "ain't gonna happen" - as the old saw goes - "the only constant in this world is change."
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