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19-05-2010, 12:17
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#1
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CF Adviser
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Pac NW
Boat: Boatless, for now, Cat enthusiast
Posts: 1,318
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Latest Hurricane Season Prediction
See: Dr. Hansimian's Hurricane Forecast Center
So, put down your chimps and take your chances!
ID
__________________
Intentional Drifter
Observations are gold; hypotheses, silver; and conclusions, bronze.
Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.--Ben Franklin
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.--Daniel Patrick Moynihan
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19-05-2010, 12:29
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#2
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Senior Cruiser
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 49,139
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__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"
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19-05-2010, 17:57
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: In transit ( Texas to wherever the wind blows us)
Boat: Pacific Seacraft a Crealock 34
Posts: 4,115
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Lord I just realized, a hurricane with all that oil in the gulf! Well I need a drink now!
E
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19-05-2010, 18:21
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: PNW
Boat: SJ23 1988
Posts: 119
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oh man... don't get my nightmares started... please
Lived in FL... long ago, in a 22 Avion Trailer... got chased all over the gulf by the dang things... trying to get out of the way. Spent a summer with pen, ocean chart and plotter... tracking them and listening daily to the reports... which then dictated where we went to "Get Away"....
I'm hoping that the "Climate" change thing will cause the Cane's to just "Go away".... Well sheeesh... am man can wish can't he?
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25-05-2010, 10:07
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Location: By the River of Silver
Boat: FPD 1760 LCD 17"screen
Posts: 304
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Stay safe everybody . Be prepared .
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25-05-2010, 10:32
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Melbourne, Florida
Boat: Belliure Endurance 35
Posts: 124
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As a 25 year Florida resident dealing with this stuff every year, all I have to say is that thier predictions are worthless.
It seems like they predict a bad year every year. Afterwards, if it wasn't they tell you why it wasn't after all, and if it was then they say "See, we told you!" Most of the time, it's not a bad year.
They got it right once in 2004, but that was just luck.
I think the chimp and NOAA both have an equal chance of being right.
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25-05-2010, 10:56
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#7
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running down a dream
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Florida
Boat: cape dory 30 MKII
Posts: 3,112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveC
As a 25 year Florida resident dealing with this stuff every year, all I have to say is that their predictions are worthless
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i agree
__________________
some of the best times of my life were spent on a boat. it just took a long time to realize it.
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25-05-2010, 11:10
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#8
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cat herder, extreme blacksheep
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 18,967
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as noaa means to me not one accurate assment i am in kalifornikation --we dont get hurrycames..they do in baja, bur our water is way too cold for them...but then i want to get my boat out of so cal and into more varied cruising waters----she is slow so i will be plotting the canes with ye all after i finally get her out of here.......stormpulse seems to be the best foul weather site i have found.....along with wunderground and passage weather --cant just rely on one site ....and louseyanny will be in really bad shape as these come and churn the waters ---i feel badly as the place is gorgeous....was......i was told the oil goo is now 5 miles into the marshes---gadz----pix of pelicans are horrid..the marshes used to be pretty now are gooey...is nasty situation all around....grand isle will never be the same in our lifetime........
(hay--i love louseyanny--they just got a lousey deal of late----big time......)
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25-05-2010, 12:11
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Boat: Teak Yawl, 37'
Posts: 2,980
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocean Girl
Lord I just realized, a hurricane with all that oil in the gulf! Well I need a drink now!
E
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At least the waves won't be very high with all the oil. Well, I'm having a drink now!
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25-05-2010, 13:28
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Jupiter FL
Boat: temporarily boatless...
Posts: 803
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What DaveC said, yes.
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25-05-2010, 14:44
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 298
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The predictions are worth two piles of cat ****. A hurricane hitting S Lousiana now would be a disaster. It would appear that drilling the relief well is the only realistic fix and a storm would slow that down. A hurricane after the leaks are plugged mught be a good thing - 12 inches of rain might flush a lot of the oil out of the bayous and marshes.
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25-05-2010, 16:37
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: between the devil and the deep blue sea
Boat: a sailing boat
Posts: 20,420
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But if the ice caps are melting, then the ocean waters should be getting ... cooler? And if the water is cooler, the chance of a cyclone is ... less?
It is also much cooler this year where I am and this happens to be very close to where we make them cyclones and send the over to get rid of competition.
barnie
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26-05-2010, 04:27
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#13
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Senior Cruiser
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 49,139
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barnakiel
But if the ice caps are melting, then the ocean waters should be getting ... cooler? ...
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You’re kidding, right?
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"
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27-05-2010, 08:47
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#15
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running down a dream
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Florida
Boat: cape dory 30 MKII
Posts: 3,112
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Sources of uncertainty in this seasonal outlook according to NOAA: - Predicting El Niño and La Niña (also called ENSO) impacts is an ongoing scientific challenge facing climate scientists today. Such forecasts made during the spring generally have limited skill.
- Many combinations of named storms and hurricanes can occur for the same general set of climate conditions. For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given climate signal will be associated with several short-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity.
- Model predictions of sea-surface temperatures, vertical wind shear, moisture, and stability have limited skill this far in advance of the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.
- Weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity.
__________________
some of the best times of my life were spent on a boat. it just took a long time to realize it.
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