Cruisers Forum
 


Reply
  This discussion is proudly sponsored by:
Please support our sponsors and let them know you heard about their products on Cruisers Forums. Advertise Here
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 19-05-2010, 12:17   #1
CF Adviser
 
Intentional Drifter's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Pac NW
Boat: Boatless, for now, Cat enthusiast
Posts: 1,318
Latest Hurricane Season Prediction

See: Dr. Hansimian's Hurricane Forecast Center

So, put down your chimps and take your chances!

ID
__________________
Intentional Drifter

Observations are gold; hypotheses, silver; and conclusions, bronze.

Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.--Ben Franklin

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.--Daniel Patrick Moynihan
Intentional Drifter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19-05-2010, 12:29   #2
Senior Cruiser
 
GordMay's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 49,139
Images: 241
See http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/...10/apr2010.pdf
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"



GordMay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19-05-2010, 17:57   #3
Registered User
 
Ocean Girl's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: In transit ( Texas to wherever the wind blows us)
Boat: Pacific Seacraft a Crealock 34
Posts: 4,115
Images: 2
Lord I just realized, a hurricane with all that oil in the gulf! Well I need a drink now!
E
__________________
Mrs. Rain Dog~Ocean Girl
https://raindogps34.wordpress.com
Ocean Girl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19-05-2010, 18:21   #4
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: PNW
Boat: SJ23 1988
Posts: 119
oh man... don't get my nightmares started... please

Lived in FL... long ago, in a 22 Avion Trailer... got chased all over the gulf by the dang things... trying to get out of the way. Spent a summer with pen, ocean chart and plotter... tracking them and listening daily to the reports... which then dictated where we went to "Get Away"....

I'm hoping that the "Climate" change thing will cause the Cane's to just "Go away".... Well sheeesh... am man can wish can't he?
FxdGrMind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2010, 10:07   #5
Registered User
 
Adax's Avatar

Join Date: May 2010
Location: By the River of Silver
Boat: FPD 1760 LCD 17"screen
Posts: 304
Stay safe everybody . Be prepared .
Adax is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2010, 10:32   #6
Registered User
 
DaveC's Avatar

Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Melbourne, Florida
Boat: Belliure Endurance 35
Posts: 124
Send a message via Yahoo to DaveC
As a 25 year Florida resident dealing with this stuff every year, all I have to say is that thier predictions are worthless.

It seems like they predict a bad year every year. Afterwards, if it wasn't they tell you why it wasn't after all, and if it was then they say "See, we told you!" Most of the time, it's not a bad year.

They got it right once in 2004, but that was just luck.

I think the chimp and NOAA both have an equal chance of being right.
DaveC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2010, 10:56   #7
running down a dream
 
gonesail's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Florida
Boat: cape dory 30 MKII
Posts: 3,112
Images: 7
Send a message via Yahoo to gonesail
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveC View Post
As a 25 year Florida resident dealing with this stuff every year, all I have to say is that their predictions are worthless
i agree
__________________
some of the best times of my life were spent on a boat. it just took a long time to realize it.
gonesail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2010, 11:10   #8
cat herder, extreme blacksheep

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 18,967
Images: 56
as noaa means to me not one accurate assment i am in kalifornikation --we dont get hurrycames..they do in baja, bur our water is way too cold for them...but then i want to get my boat out of so cal and into more varied cruising waters----she is slow so i will be plotting the canes with ye all after i finally get her out of here.......stormpulse seems to be the best foul weather site i have found.....along with wunderground and passage weather --cant just rely on one site ....and louseyanny will be in really bad shape as these come and churn the waters ---i feel badly as the place is gorgeous....was......i was told the oil goo is now 5 miles into the marshes---gadz----pix of pelicans are horrid..the marshes used to be pretty now are gooey...is nasty situation all around....grand isle will never be the same in our lifetime........
(hay--i love louseyanny--they just got a lousey deal of late----big time......)
zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2010, 12:11   #9
Registered User
 
LakeSuperior's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2008
Boat: Teak Yawl, 37'
Posts: 2,980
Images: 7
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocean Girl View Post
Lord I just realized, a hurricane with all that oil in the gulf! Well I need a drink now!
E
At least the waves won't be very high with all the oil. Well, I'm having a drink now!
LakeSuperior is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2010, 13:28   #10
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Jupiter FL
Boat: temporarily boatless...
Posts: 803
What DaveC said, yes.
pete33458 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2010, 14:44   #11
Registered User

Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 298
The predictions are worth two piles of cat ****. A hurricane hitting S Lousiana now would be a disaster. It would appear that drilling the relief well is the only realistic fix and a storm would slow that down. A hurricane after the leaks are plugged mught be a good thing - 12 inches of rain might flush a lot of the oil out of the bayous and marshes.
TexSail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2010, 16:37   #12
Registered User

Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: between the devil and the deep blue sea
Boat: a sailing boat
Posts: 20,420
But if the ice caps are melting, then the ocean waters should be getting ... cooler? And if the water is cooler, the chance of a cyclone is ... less?

It is also much cooler this year where I am and this happens to be very close to where we make them cyclones and send the over to get rid of competition.

barnie
barnakiel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-05-2010, 04:27   #13
Senior Cruiser
 
GordMay's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 49,139
Images: 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by barnakiel View Post
But if the ice caps are melting, then the ocean waters should be getting ... cooler? ...
You’re kidding, right?
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"



GordMay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-05-2010, 08:42   #14
CF Adviser
 
Bash's Avatar

Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: sausalito
Boat: 14 meter sloop
Posts: 7,260
The NOAA hurricane forecast for the upcoming season was released today. I was hoping for better, given that the El Nino started weakening in April, but it looks like we're in for a spanking.

NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season
__________________
cruising is entirely about showing up--in boat shoes.
Bash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-05-2010, 08:47   #15
running down a dream
 
gonesail's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Florida
Boat: cape dory 30 MKII
Posts: 3,112
Images: 7
Send a message via Yahoo to gonesail
Sources of uncertainty in this seasonal outlook according to NOAA:
  1. Predicting El Niño and La Niña (also called ENSO) impacts is an ongoing scientific challenge facing climate scientists today. Such forecasts made during the spring generally have limited skill.
  2. Many combinations of named storms and hurricanes can occur for the same general set of climate conditions. For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given climate signal will be associated with several short-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity.
  3. Model predictions of sea-surface temperatures, vertical wind shear, moisture, and stability have limited skill this far in advance of the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.
  4. Weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity.
__________________
some of the best times of my life were spent on a boat. it just took a long time to realize it.
gonesail is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Decommissioning for Hurricane Season flm Atlantic & the Caribbean 6 25-07-2009 11:01
Hurricane Season 2009 Ocean Girl Seamanship & Boat Handling 8 29-06-2009 06:43
2009 Atlantic hurricane prediction Scottie2 Atlantic & the Caribbean 14 11-04-2009 17:00
Hurricane prediction Website starfish62 Cruising News & Events 3 22-03-2009 07:50
2005 Hurricane Season GordMay Weather | Gear, Reports and Resources 10 08-07-2005 10:28

Advertise Here


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 13:48.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.