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Old 19-05-2010, 13:17   #1
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Latest Hurricane Season Prediction

See: Dr. Hansimian's Hurricane Forecast Center

So, put down your chimps and take your chances!

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Old 19-05-2010, 13:29   #2
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See http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/...10/apr2010.pdf
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Old 19-05-2010, 18:57   #3
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Lord I just realized, a hurricane with all that oil in the gulf! Well I need a drink now!
E
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Old 19-05-2010, 19:21   #4
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oh man... don't get my nightmares started... please

Lived in FL... long ago, in a 22 Avion Trailer... got chased all over the gulf by the dang things... trying to get out of the way. Spent a summer with pen, ocean chart and plotter... tracking them and listening daily to the reports... which then dictated where we went to "Get Away"....

I'm hoping that the "Climate" change thing will cause the Cane's to just "Go away".... Well sheeesh... am man can wish can't he?
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Old 25-05-2010, 11:07   #5
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Stay safe everybody . Be prepared .
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Old 25-05-2010, 11:32   #6
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As a 25 year Florida resident dealing with this stuff every year, all I have to say is that thier predictions are worthless.

It seems like they predict a bad year every year. Afterwards, if it wasn't they tell you why it wasn't after all, and if it was then they say "See, we told you!" Most of the time, it's not a bad year.

They got it right once in 2004, but that was just luck.

I think the chimp and NOAA both have an equal chance of being right.
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Old 25-05-2010, 11:56   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveC View Post
As a 25 year Florida resident dealing with this stuff every year, all I have to say is that their predictions are worthless
i agree
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Old 25-05-2010, 12:10   #8
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as noaa means to me not one accurate assment i am in kalifornikation --we dont get hurrycames..they do in baja, bur our water is way too cold for them...but then i want to get my boat out of so cal and into more varied cruising waters----she is slow so i will be plotting the canes with ye all after i finally get her out of here.......stormpulse seems to be the best foul weather site i have found.....along with wunderground and passage weather --cant just rely on one site ....and louseyanny will be in really bad shape as these come and churn the waters ---i feel badly as the place is gorgeous....was......i was told the oil goo is now 5 miles into the marshes---gadz----pix of pelicans are horrid..the marshes used to be pretty now are gooey...is nasty situation all around....grand isle will never be the same in our lifetime........
(hay--i love louseyanny--they just got a lousey deal of late----big time......)
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Old 25-05-2010, 13:11   #9
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Lord I just realized, a hurricane with all that oil in the gulf! Well I need a drink now!
E
At least the waves won't be very high with all the oil. Well, I'm having a drink now!
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Old 25-05-2010, 14:28   #10
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What DaveC said, yes.
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Old 25-05-2010, 15:44   #11
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The predictions are worth two piles of cat ****. A hurricane hitting S Lousiana now would be a disaster. It would appear that drilling the relief well is the only realistic fix and a storm would slow that down. A hurricane after the leaks are plugged mught be a good thing - 12 inches of rain might flush a lot of the oil out of the bayous and marshes.
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Old 25-05-2010, 17:37   #12
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But if the ice caps are melting, then the ocean waters should be getting ... cooler? And if the water is cooler, the chance of a cyclone is ... less?

It is also much cooler this year where I am and this happens to be very close to where we make them cyclones and send the over to get rid of competition.

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Old 26-05-2010, 05:27   #13
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But if the ice caps are melting, then the ocean waters should be getting ... cooler? ...
You’re kidding, right?
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Old 27-05-2010, 09:42   #14
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The NOAA hurricane forecast for the upcoming season was released today. I was hoping for better, given that the El Nino started weakening in April, but it looks like we're in for a spanking.

NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Old 27-05-2010, 09:47   #15
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Sources of uncertainty in this seasonal outlook according to NOAA:
  1. Predicting El Niño and La Niña (also called ENSO) impacts is an ongoing scientific challenge facing climate scientists today. Such forecasts made during the spring generally have limited skill.
  2. Many combinations of named storms and hurricanes can occur for the same general set of climate conditions. For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given climate signal will be associated with several short-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity.
  3. Model predictions of sea-surface temperatures, vertical wind shear, moisture, and stability have limited skill this far in advance of the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.
  4. Weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity.
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