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Old 27-05-2010, 10:19   #16
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Any weather forcast more than four days in the future is a predication based on what has occurred before during similar conditions ie - it's a guess.
Nobody predicated the weather we've all experienced during the last winter and spring, snow in Salt Lake City, Utah last week for example.
The best predication I heard about the upcoming hurricane season was "yup we probable will have some"
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Old 27-05-2010, 10:47   #17
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Originally Posted by John A View Post
Any weather forcast more than four days in the future is a predication based on what has occurred before during similar conditions ie - it's a guess...
These aren’t forecasts or predictions, they are seasonal “outlooks”.

NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

* 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
* 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
* 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

More ➥ NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

Klotzbach and Gray (Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University)
estimate that 2010 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 15 named storms (average is 9.6), 75 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 4 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 10 major hurricane days (average is 5.0).

More ➥ http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/...10/apr2010.pdf

2010 Hurricane Names

1. Hurricane Alex
2. Hurricane Bonnie
3. Hurricane Colin
4. Hurricane Danielle
5. Hurricane Earl
6. Hurricane Fiona
7. Hurricane Gaston
8. Hurricane Hermine
9. Hurricane Igor
10. Hurricane Julia
11. Hurricane Karl
12. Hurricane Lisa
13. Hurricane Matthew
14. Hurricane Nicole
15. Hurricane Otto
16. Hurricane Paula
17. Hurricane Richard
18. Hurricane Shary
19. Hurricane Tomas
20. Hurricane Virginie
21. Hurricane Walter

More ➥ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml16

The 2010 hurricane season in the eastern Pacific Ocean began on May 15, 2010 and will end on November 30, 2010. The first tropical storm in the eastern Pacific will be named Agatha. The earlier start time in the eastern Pacific reflects how this basin typically turns active faster than the Atlantic. On average, June 9 is when the first tropical storm is named in the eastern Pacific. In the Atlantic, that date is July 10.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)
SEASONAL FORECASTS AND VERIFICATIONS
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) for long-range forecasts of hurricane, typhoon and cyclone worldwide
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Old 27-05-2010, 11:38   #18
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Guess it all boils down to whether or not its a good butterfly season in West Africa....
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