Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 06-01-2019, 08:18   #1
Senior Cruiser
 
GordMay's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 33,721
Images: 240
Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

We’ve seen some very high-profile examples, lately, of how overconfident leadership can lead to ruinous outcomes.

Julia Rohrer (et al) wants to create a radical new culture for social scientists. A personality psychologist at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Rohrer is trying to get her peers to publicly, willingly admit it when they are wrong.

To do this, she, along with some colleagues, started up something called the Loss of Confidence Project. It’s designed to be an academic safe space for researchers to declare for all to see that they no longer believe in the accuracy of one of their previous findings. The effort recently yielded a paper that includes six admissions of no confidence. And it’s accepting submissions until January 31.

Loss-of-Confidence Projecthttps://lossofconfidence.com/

Putting the Self in Self-Correction
“Scientific self-correction is often construed as an outcome of the activities of the community as a whole. In contrast, cases in which researchers publicly point out errors in their own studies are rare and deemed unusual. Here, we argue that such individual self-corrections would be beneficial for the scientific community. In an online project, we invited researchers to submit statements describing how they have lost confidence in a finding they had previously published...”
Morehttps://psyarxiv.com/exmb2
__________________

__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"



GordMay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2019, 08:56   #2
Registered User

Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: West Virginia
Boat: Cape Dory, Cutter,30
Posts: 89
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

This is off topic. Keep politics out of this forum.
__________________

moctrams is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2019, 09:17   #3
Registered User
 
LakeSuperior's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2008
Boat: Teak Yawl, 37'
Posts: 1,780
Images: 7
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

Darn, I wanted to see all the climate change research papers that would be posted.
LakeSuperior is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2019, 09:30   #4
Senior Cruiser
 
atoll's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: gettin naughty on the beach in cornwall
Boat: 63 custom alloy sloop,macwester26,prout snowgoose 37 elite catamaran!
Posts: 9,835
Images: 75
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

the earth really is flat,members from all around the world can agree on this.......
__________________
my catamaran building project updates http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...36#post2502136
atoll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2019, 09:39   #5
Marine Service Provider
 
SV THIRD DAY's Avatar

Community Sponsor
Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: La Paz, Mexico
Boat: 1978 Hudson Force 50 Ketch
Posts: 3,837
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by LakeSuperior View Post
Darn, I wanted to see all the climate change research papers that would be posted.

Ha ha ha....
If I said that I'd get a visit to chat room jail again for being offensive....
SV THIRD DAY is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2019, 10:00   #6
Registered User

Join Date: May 2011
Location: Toronto
Boat: Sandpiper 565
Posts: 3,457
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY View Post
Ha ha ha....
If I said that I'd get a visit to chat room jail again for being offensive....

You wouldn't have said just that though.
Lake-Effect is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2019, 10:14   #7
Registered User

Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Sea of Cortez/northern Utah/ Wisconsin/ La Paz, BCS
Boat: Hans Christian 38 Mk II
Posts: 117
Images: 1
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY View Post
Ha ha ha....
If I said that I'd get a visit to chat room jail again for being offensive....
You are only offensive when you keep on insisting on eating street fish tacos
AndyEss is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2019, 10:14   #8
Registered User
 
fish53's Avatar

Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 277
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

Shoot, I can't post on here anymore.
fish53 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2019, 11:21   #9
Registered User
 
Mike OReilly's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Good question
Boat: Rafiki 37
Posts: 5,831
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

Interesting Gord. I see this as part of the quest for the social “sciences” to become real sciences. So much of social science (sociology, psychology economics, anthropology, etc…) is pretty loosey-goosey with regard to scientific rigour.

Actually, I just finished reading Seth Stephens-Davidowitz’s book “Everybody Lies”. His main thesis, other than the fact that we’re all liars, is that Big Data is finally allowing social science to become legitimate sciences. Big data allows for rigorous experimentation and analysis over legitimate sample groups. This is as opposed to most social science experiments which usually involve a small group of university students.
__________________
Why go fast, when you can go slow.
BLOG: www.helplink.com/CLAFC
Mike OReilly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2019, 11:32   #10
Registered User
 
gamayun's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Oakland, CA
Boat: Freedom 38
Posts: 1,800
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

Read the link. This is specifically related to the field of psychology, which has been going through its own catharsis recently after finding that many of their studies could not be replicated. Transparent data and reproducibility are keys to good science; understanding science is key to a smart society. We're getting there on the former; we ain't there yet on the latter.
gamayun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2019, 16:45   #11
Registered User

Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 9,246
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

Yes this is not a political topic.

Respect for proper, verified consensus science is critical to our shared reality.

Proper evidence based science must inform all policy decisions, not delusions nor corrupt self interest.

And a properly scientific attitude must remain humble and open to new data and interpretations.

Much science wrt **human** behaviour,
is not settled, in need of constant re-testing and verification.
john61ct is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2019, 16:52   #12
Registered User
 
Stu Jackson's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Cowichan Bay, BC (Maple Bay Marina)
Posts: 7,197
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by john61ct View Post
Yes this is not a political topic.

Respect for proper, verified consensus science is critical to our shared reality.

Proper evidence based science must inform all policy decisions, not delusions nor corrupt self interest.

And a properly scientific attitude must remain humble and open to new data and interpretations.

Much science wrt **human** behaviour,
is not settled, in need of constant re-testing and verification.



Very succinctly presented. Thanks.
__________________
Stu Jackson
Catalina 34 #224 (1986) C34IA Secretary
Cowichan Bay, BC, (Maple Bay Marina) SR/FK, M25, Rocna 10 (22#) (NZ model)
Stu Jackson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2019, 06:47   #13
Senior Cruiser
 
GordMay's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 33,721
Images: 240
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

Good Science is Hard - Publishing Isn't (Dodgy Journals publish papers in exchange for a fee)
Sometimes there's error; and sometimes outright fraud.


The International Journal of Advanced Computer Technology recently accepted for publication a paper titled “Get Me Off Your ****ing Mailing List”, whose text was nothing more than those seven words, repeated over and over for 10 pages. The paper was not actually published as the authors' declined to pay the required US$150 article processing charge.
http://www.scs.stanford.edu/~dm/home/papers/remove.pdf

Two other journals allowed an engineer (Alex Smolyanitsky) posing as Maggie Simpson and Edna Krabappel to publish a paper, “Fuzzy, Homogeneous Configurations.” The text of the Simpson, et al. paper wasn’t even coherent. Smolyanitsky just used a bunch of jargon from the text generator SCIgen.
The Journal of Computational Intelligence and Electronic Systems accepted the paper immediately, while the other waited a month before publishing - and they now keep sending Smolyanitsky invoices for a $459 publishing fee.
https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/uploads/cho..._Simpson.0.pdf
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"



GordMay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2019, 12:43   #14
Registered User
 
gamayun's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Oakland, CA
Boat: Freedom 38
Posts: 1,800
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by GordMay View Post
The text of the Simpson, et al. paper wasn’t even coherent. Smolyanitsky just used a bunch of jargon from the text generator SCIgen.
Hmmm. It looked coherent to me. Sounds exactly how my techie son talks....

An issue with scientific journals (the legitimate ones - not those that are just making money to publish complete crap for people who need to pay to get cited work) is that they have been shown to be biased to publish only statistically significant results. No effects findings are also informative, but are being shut out. The great thing about science though is that it is constantly being challenged to ensure we get it right and this will make the studies much better over time, although there will always be people who game the system. As we are beginning to understand more about the non-rational decisions that humans make -- all the time -- we will also see ways to counteract these tendencies. Perhaps even better is when AI takes over and separates us from bad choices based on our biases and emotions
gamayun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2019, 13:04   #15
Registered User
 
Eigenvector's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Mostly Texas
Boat: Lagoon 37 TPI
Posts: 186
Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

For a most excellent read on this subject and many others I'd suggest:


The Skeptics Guide to the Universe


I just finished it and am going to start over. Just too much good insights that I didn't retain the first time through.
__________________

__________________
======================
Don't Tell My Mom I Work In the Oilfield,
She Thinks I'm a Piano Player in a Whorehouse.
Eigenvector is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
import

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Might or Might not have made the biggest Mistake of my life jaygatsby Monohull Sailboats 89 13-01-2019 14:23
I love cruising because it teaches humility zboss General Sailing Forum 38 17-09-2014 20:38
Knowing Your Boat's Limitations . . . otherthan Monohull Sailboats 13 07-07-2010 05:45



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 20:37.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.