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Old 21-01-2015, 10:08   #241
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

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Originally Posted by senormechanico View Post
The difference between prepping and going to the grocery store every day after work to buy stuff for dinner is only a matter of degree.

Ooh! Latin. My "reductio ad absurdum" was pointing out your insistence that because something has never happened, that it could NOT happen.

My favorite (mock) Latin phrase is,

Illegitimi non carborundum
whatever about grindstones

I dont insist that because something hasn't happened it couldn't happen

What I "insisted" is that you ( or I ) cannot foretell the future and therefore what is likely to happen is something neither of us thought about at all, Thats the fallacy of the " prepare" logic. its a " buggy whip" argument

for example, read predictions of computer technology from the early 70s. while a few things are right, the vast majority of predictions, missed things like the PC revolution and the Internet and completely missed the Social Change that these technologies generated.

( a good series on the net for this is " The Mighty Micro")

So sitting here trying to protect yourself up for future imagined calamities is a ridiculous undertaking , Thats not to say if you actually know there is a good chance of something in the future happening, say you live at 1500 feet and you know its snows in January, you should prepare for that known, predictable event.

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Old 21-01-2015, 10:15   #242
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

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Originally Posted by goboatingnow View Post
leaving aside your obvious " reductio ad absurdum" piece. The speculation about EMP is just that " speculation". If its nuclear EMP , I d be much more worried about the sods on the receiving end of the US retaliatory strike, then a few prep errs in the woods. When the world has turned to glass, the last thing Ill be worried about is boats or why the electricity isn't working

You cannot foresee future events, nor can you foresee the "fall of civilisation" , typically when the " fall" occurs, its because civilisations didn't see it. If they saw it it wouldn't be a "fall"

Again lets not mix this up with buying a weeks groceries

Your assumption is that people can see the fall and will take steps to stop the fall. That's not necessarily true. Without getting into politics, let's just say IMHO, the fall of the US began in 2008 and we are now no longer the #1 nation in the world.

It's been predicted, discussed, analyzed and the net result is it happened anyway. Regardless of all of the warnings and pundits. Was it by design? It almost feels like it. Maybe it was the typical arc of any normal nation (like England or Spain or Portugal or Rome before.) I'm not positive. I'm not an expert on the subject, but the fact remains China is now the #1 nation on earth.

All it takes is a catastrophic event to bring civilization to a halt. Long ago, the US gov't kept a 90 day stockpile of oil, grocery stores kept warehouses full of food, etc. Now, everything is JIT, there are no stockpiles, or much smaller stockpiles. When is Yellowstone going to erupt? The experts say it's way overdue. There are countless possible catastrophic natural events like this, not to mention man made disasters.

Maybe Seth Rogan will do another movie and the nutjob over in N. Korea will finally push the button. It might even be worth it to get rid of Seth Rogen. Who knows, things happen.

Telling a prepper he's crazy is like telling someone with insurance they're a pessimist. Why? Because they want to be covered in case of the loss of their boat? It's basically the same thing, except on a self sufficient level vs relying on a big corporation to send you money. You hope for the best, but are prepared for the worst.
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Old 21-01-2015, 10:29   #243
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

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Your assumption is that people can see the fall and will take steps to stop the fall. That's not necessarily true. Without getting into politics, let's just say IMHO, the fall of the US began in 2008 and we are now no longer the #1 nation in the world.
Whether the US is #1 is completely irrelevant, a country with such size, population , natural resources, technology is simply not going to disappear off the face of the planet. In such cases as you mentioned, decline occurred, over 100 years, and in no case did their society vanish, go rogue or succumb to a Zombie invasion. It was a gentle decline into old age etc.

Quote:
It's been predicted, discussed, analyzed and the net result is it happened anyway. Regardless of all of the warnings and pundits. Was it by design? It almost feels like it. Maybe it was the typical arc of any normal nation (like England or Spain or Portugal or Rome before.) I'm not positive. I'm not an expert on the subject, but the fact remains China is now the #1 nation on earth.
China was its drawbacks, Africa is looking greedily at its rise. we shall see.

Irrespective it doesn't mean Hershey bars wont be available in 7-11 stores

Quote:
All it takes is a catastrophic event to bring civilization to a halt. Long ago, the US gov't kept a 90 day stockpile of oil, grocery stores kept warehouses full of food, etc. Now, everything is JIT, there are no stockpiles, or much smaller stockpiles. When is Yellowstone going to erupt? The experts say it's way overdue. There are countless possible catastrophic natural events like this, not to mention man made disasters.
nonsense, pure science fiction , prepping because the world might end is self justifiable nonsense. ( There is no world )

Quote:
Maybe Seth Rogan will do another movie and the nutjob over in N. Korea will finally push the button. It might even be worth it to get rid of Seth Rogen. Who knows, things happen.
It run by a small fat guy, nothing other then words will emanate , unless you can compete with the Big boy(s) on armament technology, resources , etc, you can not hope to survive any attempt at hostilities, people are not nut jobs actually even ones we label " terrorists" ( some even end up in Government )
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Telling a prepper he's crazy is like telling someone with insurance they're a pessimist. Why? Because they want to be covered in case of the loss of their boat? It's basically the same thing, except on a self sufficient level vs relying on a big corporation to send you money. You hope for the best, but are prepared for the worst.
its not, insurance is a way to protect your assets ( it doesn't in any way protect you personally ) from damage from known risks. Thats the whole point of insurance risks assessors, to evaluate and " price" risks.

Thats entirely different to going and living in the hills, with a pile of guns, tinned peaches and three wives, cause you fear the US Grid is going too be fried any day now by san EMP blast and the society will degenerate into a kind of Zombie invasion movie. ( Try insuring against that in a real way by the way )

Humans prepare against known and predictable future events, " peppers" prepare against purely speculative future disaster that will be specifically tailored to justify their particular form of " prepping"

for example, people that think a boat is a place of refuge in some form of societal collapse

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Old 21-01-2015, 10:50   #244
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

Be well and prosper Dave. I will some day see you in harbor. Someday I am going to your neck of the woods to continue my studies of history and culture. Mine will be the blue valiant laden down with supplies. And if you need a bandaid or some fresh sushi come over, I'll have some.
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Old 21-01-2015, 10:54   #245
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

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Be well and prosper Dave. I will some day see you in harbor. Someday I am going to your neck of the woods to continue my studies of history and culture. Mine will be the blue valiant laden down with supplies. And if you need a bandaid or some fresh sushi come over, I'll have some.
Im a sucker for a man with sushi

you need to get a blue water crusier really you do, A sense 50 or something, Im not sure you can bring that valiant in

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Old 21-01-2015, 11:03   #246
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

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its not, insurance is a way to protect your assets how does insurance protect your assets? Does it reroute storms or prevent your boat from sinking? Of course not. It merely reimburses you for your loss, that's all.

( it doesn't in any way protect you personally ) from damage from known risks. Thats the whole point of insurance risks assessors, to evaluate and " price" risks.

No, I think a risk assessor's primary goal is to make sure that providing insurance coverage is profitable for them. They look at how risky your behavior or plans are, and price the premiums accordingly to ensure a profit.

Thats entirely different to going and living in the hills, with a pile of guns, tinned peaches and three wives, cause you fear the US Grid is going too be fried any day now by san EMP blast and the society will degenerate into a kind of Zombie invasion movie. ( Try insuring against that in a real way by the way )

It's better to be prepared with food and a stockpile of all that you need than to rely on the grocery store when it's empty. Regardless of the event, you're still going to need the same basic staples to survive. You can also equip yourself with the means to survive specific events, like fire, looting, chemical agents, etc. If you get hit with a direct nuclear attack, it's all a moot point, but someone, somewhere will always be beyond the range of the destruction. It's better to be prepared than to be the one asking your neighbor to help you out.

Humans prepare against known and predictable future events, " peppers" prepare against purely speculative future disaster that will be specifically tailored to justify their particular form of " prepping"

That's your opinion, supported by what facts?

for example, people that think a boat is a place of refuge in some form of societal collapse

Let's say a family has a 45' catamaran with 1 yrs supply of staples and the ability to fish, plenty of solar power and a good sized water maker. They could easily be self sustaining as they make their way to somewhere in the S. Pacific that hopefully wasn't affected. It's entirely feasible.

Dave
Well, I've said my piece. Time to move onto something more constructive.
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Old 21-01-2015, 11:15   #247
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

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its not, insurance is a way to protect your assets how does insurance protect your assets? Does it reroute storms or prevent your boat from sinking? Of course not. It merely reimburses you for your loss, that's all.
indeed , bad choice of words, I meant reimburse, I was merely pointing out insurance isn't a form of "prepping"


Quote:
It's better to be prepared with food and a stockpile of all that you need than to rely on the grocery store when it's empty. Regardless of the event, you're still going to need the same basic staples to survive. You can also equip yourself with the means to survive specific events, like fire, looting, chemical agents, etc. If you get hit with a direct nuclear attack, it's all a moot point, but someone, somewhere will always be beyond the range of the destruction. It's better to be prepared than to be the one asking your neighbor to help you out.
Thats more of the fallacy, you can't tell what fire, what looting, what chemical or anything else. "prepping " is a faith based religion, like all religions its impervious to facts and logic

Asking your neighbour is a good thing, fosters co-operation, and you get to know your neighbour, he does something for you, you do something for him,

Quote:
Humans prepare against known and predictable future events, " peppers" prepare against purely speculative future disaster that will be specifically tailored to justify their particular form of " prepping"

That's your opinion, supported by what facts?
when a prepper says he going to user a boat to escape a Global Pandemic, EMP , blah blah blah, its they that have no facts.


Quote:
Let's say a family has a 45' catamaran with 1 yrs supply of staples and the ability to fish, plenty of solar power and a good sized water maker. They could easily be self sustaining as they make their way to somewhere in the S. Pacific that hopefully wasn't affected. It's entirely feasible.

water maker fails, high tech part, engine fails, solar fails, all need the services of modern ports and infrastructure, How they keep food safe in the tropics for a year is also not clear. !!

not to mention storms, disease, not imaginary ones, the ones that happen too kids and adults, abcesses, etc

its entirely unfeasible , and undoable unless they have help and technology and id question the sanity of any sailor here who has crossed oceans and still believes it.
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Old 21-01-2015, 12:12   #248
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

where the end comes and there is no longer any internet ...................................... who is going to continue this discussion?
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Old 21-01-2015, 12:24   #249
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

It will have to happen when the ice is gone here and I can get the Leopard back in the water. I do have a 30 day supply of freeze dried foods I could toss on board. We have been known to lose power here for days as a result of ice storms.
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Old 21-01-2015, 17:04   #250
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

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HP: Not to devolve in to a political thread I'm just trying to discuss basic human nature.

Yepper. We've had many a thread on these points. As history goes, Europe has weathered some storms in the past for sure. I think US communities are untested in this regard. Even though Dave's opinion reads like it's chiseled in stone, it's just an opinion. I hope you're correct sir but I fear you are driving along looking in the rearview mirror, and on the wrong side of the road.
Yes, I read it that he is stuck in a particular view point and can't lean over to see it from the other side.

Pity.
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Old 21-01-2015, 17:44   #251
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

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Perhaps you might look at how London fed itself during ww2

Large populations do have access to the countryside and huge amounts of land can be realised in cities , there an awful lot of gardens.

Equally cities don't exist in isolation, in a crises everything becomes public. A d that includes farming land outside cities.

Again see UK during ww2 , farmers were instructed what to grow , the market economy was basically shut down , people converted parks and gardens into vegetable gardens , allotments were all utilised etc.

The key thing is that while a few resorted to robbery , etc , the vast majority , didn't descend into slobbering mindless zombies , they sought solutions and enacted them.

That's the human spirit.
Dave


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You make it sound like it was dinner as usual....Well, it wasn't. Food was rationed. Some people even resorted to catching, killing and eating rats....just to keep from starving.....
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Old 21-01-2015, 17:53   #252
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

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I really didn't want to get into this with you Dave, but I find your view of history very short sighted. Preparation for disaster never did anyone any good- really? Prepping is the result of hollywood movies? You really believe that? Let's start at the beginning:

Prepping, in its basic form is insurance. Do you have insurance? Well Ok, lets say there is no company that can give complete insurance to everyone, that means one must become self insured. If you never save money, have no insurance and wake up each day on a clean slate (no belongings, no shelter etc...) then you can tell us you really don't prepare for the future. I think the character Jack Reacher does that in the spy books that some read. Interesting concept but impractical for the real world.

So everyone prepares, question is how much do you want to prepare for tomorrow. I like a week's worth of fresh food in my home, and next week I repeat. My home, with little maintenance, should last indefinitely. But I live close to a fault line- my home may be destroyed tomorrow, a year from now or 100 years from now. If so I have prepared my boat to live in as back up. What is so crazy about that? The same goes for food, water all things that through misfortune may be taken from our society that we need to sustain life.

You say there is no historical precedent for this, that your family (and Europe) survived world war 2 by simply banding together and toughing it out. I would point you to as far back as the famine in Egypt and their wheat storage plan. If you don't believe the Bible (which is fine) one of the big improvements in the Bronze age was the ability to store food, thus allowing man to survive the winter.

Speaking in a more modern sense, you may ask your parents who provided the food and materials to rebuild Europe after WW2. The Marshall plan used food and materials stockpiled in the US, much of it grown and stored where I am from, the rocky mountain west. We still have large silos of food here.

You say that prepping came from Hollywood. I thought I would clear this last detail. Brigham Young showed up at Winter's Quarters in 1846 with a two year supply of food for this family. My ancestors almost staved to death may times while colonizing the west, and the ethos of preparation goes deep into our psyche. We know what it is like to go hungry. My mom, growing up on a dry farm in newly homesteaded Idaho, was a toddler without food for many days. (depression era) So prepping for us was due to necessity. We were asked, BTW, to store canned fruit before WW2, and when the rationing came my dad said they had enough fruit to last the war.

Most recently, my brother lost his job for 6 months. He depended on his storage to feed his family. Insurance can have many forms my friend.

We are not preparing against Zombies. We are preparing against hunger, cold and disease. Things we know about, and things you would do well to remember. Despite our modern society, they are not far away.

I do not want to argue on this subject, however. I just wanted you to see our logic.
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Old 21-01-2015, 18:44   #253
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

When is this going to be retitled, "Dave's 'I'm sick in bed with nothing else to do but argue for Socialism' " thread?

Thread closing soon, I can smell it.
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Old 21-01-2015, 18:59   #254
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pirate Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

I lost count of the number of points we missed.
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Old 21-01-2015, 19:34   #255
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Re: Has anyone considered their Multihull as last refuge in Global Pandemic?

For you Doomsters, and others interested in civilization ending pandemics, try the novel "And Earth Abides" Came out in the sixties I think and a very good read.


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