Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

[uncle stinkybob]

Ok, your plan is to out run it. How do you out run this?https://youtu.be/Uz2BS99oz-4

[neilpride]

With the Mr Diesel, but some folks still don't get that Canes tend to suck any breeze hundreds miles around, so if you crazy enough to make a try , be sure Mr Yanmar is on steroids...

[a64pilot]

I think "outrunning" is a misnomer.
Think of it this way, we will leave and be somewhere else long before it gets here.
If that is the case, I think leaving is a viable option. Don't think outrun, cause that is indeed foolish, think I'm going somewhere it isn't

But I think it may make sense as long as you have a place to run to, I don't think I'm brave enough to run for the open ocean, but that is just me.

[neilpride]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I think "outrunning" is a misnomer.
Think of it this way, we will leave and be somewhere else long before it gets here.
If that is the case, I think leaving is a viable option. Don't think outrun, cause that is indeed foolish, think I'm going somewhere it isn't

But I think it may make sense as long as you have a place to run to, I don't think I'm brave enough to run for the open ocean, but that is just me.

And there is where lie the problem I think, because with a 3 or 4 days you can get a idea where is going to Bang!!! with a long window tell me where you can wait? in the middle of the atlantic? what about if he decide to turn to your lat and long? so I can agree with you that if the run is to a better place , could be a good option, kind of grenada to trinidad, or a better hurricane hole.... my 2 cents/.

[NoTies]

Originally Posted by Mr B

You could moor just past Havanna on Efate, Going north from Havanna, On the east side of the channel, Its a nice protected area with hills both sides and only 14 feet of water,
Its open to north south winds, But you could be out of it parked hard against the land, Very large trees there too, Tie your boat to them, and they would protect you from the wind blowing thru,
The road comes within about 30 feet of the water is where I am talking about,
There is a small village just back into the trees there too,
I spent 3 days there, Great spot,

Best of luck with that option, our navy patrol boat was stupid enough to try and shelter in that funnel and has only just returned to service after having all the damage repaired from being tossed up on the land. The only other boat (a 50 metre sailboat) that decided is was wise to try and shelter in the neck of a funnel ended up beside them on the beach and is still there 18 months later.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by neilpride

And there is where lie the problem I think, because with a 3 or 4 days you can get a idea where is going to Bang!!! with a long window tell me where you can wait? in the middle of the atlantic? what about if he decide to turn to your lat and long? so I can agree with you that if the run is to a better place , could be a good option, kind of grenada to trinidad, or a better hurricane hole.... my 2 cents/.

Back at the beginning of this thread I stated I had been watching this storm since last Fri., cause I had. I was watching it worried that it might get into the Gulf where I am.
But last Fri if I had been in the Bahamas, I would have left for KW, and then into the Gulf, cause if nothing else i feel that I could have found a safer place to be on the West coast of Fl than I could in the Bahamas. By Sun or so when I would have been leaving KW area I believe it's course was better known, run East or West was at least known.
I freely admit that may be because I'm very familiar with Florida's West Coast and not at all with the Bahamas, they just don't seem the be the place to be in Hurricane season.
But I have been Paranoid about this year all along too, a couple of months ago I was worried that this would be year, hopefully this is the last one of the year.

[leftbrainstuff]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

Me joking, Jim. Where would you get such an idea from?

But Navy strategies aside. I have know whole fishing fleets taking to the ocean to get out of the path of a serious weather event. A good sail boat with strong engines could motor at 9K and make up some distance offshore over 4 to 5 days.

Let's see what some basic math tells us to do...

Sailboat maintaining a 9 knot average speed! Not many I suspect.

Once a sea is up it might be tough to maintain a 4 knot average SOG in a straight line in the best direction.

Weather forecasting more than 2 days ahead is mostly voodoo and luck.

So let's assume 4 knots for 48 hours is a little under 200 knots. Overlay that on a hurricane trajectory and you're still within the cone of uncertainty.

At best you have a 50% chance to not get whacked too much. I like better odds than that.

Even leaving 4 days ahead is still a crap shoot.

Personally I like the odds of not being in the carribean from june to november.

Sent from my SM-N900T using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[JPA Cate]

Nice post, leftbrainstuff.

To all you Ozzies who were turned on by Mr. B's description of the anchorage in Havannah Hbr, the downsides to it are that it is quite shallow--maybe okay for his catamaran, but way too shallow for a keel boat to get tucked up in, and, from the island of Lelepa [the island which offers protection from the southwest) to the "boat passage", which incidentally is full of bommies, the fetch is 6 n.mi. I have to say, I do NOT think it is a suitable hurricane hole, for most boats, due to the fetch, plus there are the hazards from flying sheets of galvanized roofs, coconuts, etc. In any event, it is far too small for all the boats of Pt. Vila.

However, Pt. Sandwich (on the SE corner of Malakula Is.) does offer a hurricane/cyclone hole, and catamarans can make it up the mangrove creek to even greater protection.

Ann

[NoTies]

Originally Posted by leftbrainstuff

Let's see what some basic math tells us to do...

Sailboat maintaining a 9 knot average speed! Not many I suspect.

Once a sea is up it might be tough to maintain a 4 knot average SOG in a straight line in the best direction.

Weather forecasting more than 2 days ahead is mostly voodoo and luck.

So let's assume 4 knots for 48 hours is a little under 200 knots. Overlay that on a hurricane trajectory and you're still within the cone of uncertainty.

At best you have a 50% chance to not get whacked too much. I like better odds than that.

Even leaving 4 days ahead is still a crap shoot.

Personally I like the odds of not being in the carribean from june to november.

Sent from my SM-N900T using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

Not going sailing removes the risk even more. People still don't get it, it's not about outrunning the storm it is about being where the storm is not. Seamen (proper ones) have been doing it for generations.

[NoTies]

Originally Posted by Ann T. Cate

Nice post, leftbrainstuff.

To all you Ozzies who were turned on by Mr. B's description of the anchorage in Havannah Hbr, the downsides to it are that it is quite shallow--maybe okay for his catamaran, but way too shallow for a keel boat to get tucked up in, and, from the island of Lelepa [the island which offers protection from the southwest) to the "boat passage", which incidentally is full of bommies, the fetch is 6 n.mi. I have to say, I do NOT think it is a suitable hurricane hole, for most boats, due to the fetch, plus there are the hazards from flying sheets of galvanized roofs, coconuts, etc. In any event, it is far too small for all the boats of Pt. Vila.

However, Pt. Sandwich (on the SE corner of Malakula Is.) does offer a hurricane/cyclone hole, and catamarans can make it up the mangrove creek to even greater protection.

Ann

Unfortunately that option or Peterson Bay would have involved the bulk of the yachts heading towards the cyclone to seek shelter. Going on the port tack and heading west initially and then up toward PNG after the SW change would have been a comfortable ride then come home on the westerly. Pretty much all downwind in what was a very well forecast system.

[44'cruisingcat]

https://vimeo.com/22441359

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by Ann T. Cate

Nice post, leftbrainstuff.

To all you Ozzies who were turned on by Mr. B's description of the anchorage in Havannah Hbr, the downsides to it are that it is quite shallow--maybe okay for his catamaran, but way too shallow for a keel boat to get tucked up in, and, from the island of Lelepa [the island which offers protection from the southwest) to the "boat passage", which incidentally is full of bommies, the fetch is 6 n.mi. I have to say, I do NOT think it is a suitable hurricane hole, for most boats, due to the fetch, plus there are the hazards from flying sheets of galvanized roofs, coconuts, etc. In any event, it is far too small for all the boats of Pt. Vila.

However, Pt. Sandwich (on the SE corner of Malakula Is.) does offer a hurricane/cyclone hole, and catamarans can make it up the mangrove creek to even greater protection.

Ann

Yep, Port Sandwich would be our choice too. And when you're there:

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by Ann T. Cate

Nice post, leftbrainstuff.

To all you Ozzies who were turned on by Mr. B's description of the anchorage in Havannah Hbr, the downsides to it are that it is quite shallow--maybe okay for his catamaran, but way too shallow for a keel boat to get tucked up in, and, from the island of Lelepa [the island which offers protection from the southwest) to the "boat passage", which incidentally is full of bommies, the fetch is 6 n.mi. I have to say, I do NOT think it is a suitable hurricane hole, for most boats, due to the fetch, plus there are the hazards from flying sheets of galvanized roofs, coconuts, etc. In any event, it is far too small for all the boats of Pt. Vila.

However, Pt. Sandwich (on the SE corner of Malakula Is.) does offer a hurricane/cyclone hole, and catamarans can make it up the mangrove creek to even greater protection.

Ann

That channel is 600 feet deep, It drops to 300 feet right on the edge, At Havvanna, On the east side of the channel, The place I parked was 14 feet deep, and there wasnt much of it,
It was set back from the channel and would be protection from the wind howling straight up the channel
It was the only shallow part in the whole channel,

And it was only a suggestion, What you do with your boat is up to you,
With a couple of days notice of an impending big storm,

I would be out to sea where the storm wasnt heading,
Like avoiding the storm completely,
Which most of you people cant comprehend,

EG; If the storm is going north, You go east or west, 3 days puts you 300 miles to the side of the storm, Thats at 5 knots, I carry 750 miles of fuel, For just such occasions, If you cant sail or no wind, Etc Etc,

[NoTies]

150 knots of SW at its peak, not somewhere I want to be.

[JPA Cate]

I agree that there are times when heading out to sea is the better option, but I would not give it a blanket recommendation, and nor would I recommend that course to everyone. [too many variables]

I feel pretty secure in these opinions because we have experienced both being out in a cyclone [got blown out of the anchorage after the eye passed over us] and also having sought shelter, when there was really not time to get far enough away, or other pressing reason to stay local.

In the case of Hurricane Matthew, heading out east from the Bahamas would have put one in its path, and also going west. By the time they were down to 3 days, there really wasn't anywhere safe to go.

Still, the point of --IF YOU CAN MANAGE IT--simply not being where the cyclone is headed is a good one. Heading west from Vanuatu is a practical method, as the usual route of the storms is to the southeast.

As to Mr. B's recommendation for the Hilliard Channel, I have not tried to anchor there and have no personal knowledge of it. From looking at it on the chart, which really does not have much detail, I feel it is too open to the South, that the huge seas would refract around the corner, but be attenuated by their passage through the channel.. It is quite open to the NW, as well. For those of you with Open CPN, the Havannah Hbr. is on the NW corner of Efate, if you want to take a look.

I'll reinforce that many of us have endorsed the not being there concept. It has been our strategy for years, but a mid-May cyclone caught us out, and the others were pre-season.

Ann