Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

[NoTies]

Originally Posted by senormechanico

Imho, the only boat safe in a hurricane is a submarine.

One of the very few boats that survived Pam. They only partially submerged on a swing mooring but it was enough to save her.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by NoTies

Hard to believe there are 5 pages on this topic by supposedly experienced sailors and most seem to think you need to sail faster than the storm. Has nobody heard of Buys Ballot Law? Last year, if the yachts in Port Vila had put to sea on the port tack before Cyclone Pam they would have avoided the carnage that ensued in the harbour.

[GoingWalkabout]

Jupiter Beach starts to feel effects from Hurricane Matthew | Miami Herald


http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weat...106415577.html

[chris07732]

Originally Posted by sailorchic34

One model show our buddy matt, turning north east then south east. There is no where, safe to run at 6 knots, when matt is running 8.7 knots and his course is up in the air. Better by far to tie up in the mangroves.

edit: plus there is another low 600 miles east of Matt. Plus the winds and seas are up for hundreds of miles off shore.

I've never seen a hurricane tract like Matthew: Hurricane MATTHEW
It's doing a 360 and looks like to slam Florida again Wed.

[Stumble]

Originally Posted by chris07732

I've never seen a hurricane tract like Matthew: Hurricane MATTHEW
It's doing a 360 and looks like to slam Florida again Wed.

Hmm, I wonder what happens when hurricanes collide... there looks like a 200nm wide strip of safe water between the two storms right now.

[poiu]

Originally Posted by Stumble

Hmm, I wonder what happens when hurricanes collide... there looks like a 200nm wide strip of safe water between the two storms right now.

That would be the "perfect hurricane". The bit in between the storms won't be safe much longer. When two massive wave trains meet head on there will be high drama indeed. Actually for now, they don't look to be getting near enough.

[GILow]

Originally Posted by NewEnglander

I wonder what came of that boat. Things looked pretty rough on deck, but she was afloat and seemed to have her sea anchor out...

Don't know what happened to the boat but there's an interview of the skipper that at least confirms the crew were saved by a passing freighter of some sort. I didn't watch the whole interview as I was getting all peeved by his clear lack of preparation. I find that once I start swearing at YouTube it is best for everyone if I change channels.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by roverhi

To go to sea to dodge a hurricane in a sailboat just doesn't make sense. First, you can't outrun it. They typically have a forward motion of 10 knots or more. The typical cruising, and even racing sailboat can't maintain that or a greater speed consistently for the week or more you'd need to stay ahead of the storm.

If you guess right, you can sail out of way of the storm with a couple of days warning. Get a large storm that doesn't closely follow the predicted track and you'd need four or more days warning to sail far enough away to escape its effects. Guess wrong and you are a statistic.
A hurricane just isn't something to screw around with. Surviving one at sea is largely a matter of luck not quality of boat or skill of the crew. The storms that hit the Sidney-Hobart and the Fastnet races were just that, storms. They didn't have the wind velocity or the wave height that a hurricane can generate. A hurricane is a storm of unbelievably greater magnitude especially if it's stronger than those puny 'banana typhoons' as the residents of Guam call a cat I hurricane. A storm that can partially rip the flight deck off an aircraft carrier or sink a 600' long ship is something not to be avoided encountered at sea if at all possible. Way better having the boat tied up tightly in a hurricane hole and you ashore.

Been there done that between super Typhoon Tasing and Typhoon Saling back in 1989 lost one of my men to them and took 3 months in drydock to repair that flightdeck and bow

[GoingWalkabout]

This is truly a monster hurricane. 280 now confirmed dead in just Haiti.

Estinated 100,000 boats will be sunk or wrecked on the USA east coast.

Up to 50% of boats in the Bahamas have been destroyed.

Given this hurricane was bearing down on this track for nearly a week there was ample time to take to sea. And yes, even out of tge way of the second low.

[Jim Cate]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

This is truly a monster hurricane. 280 now confirmed dead in just Haiti.

Estinated 100,000 boats will be sunk or wrecked on the USA east coast.

Up to 50% of boats in the Bahamas have been destroyed.

Given this hurricane was bearing down on this track for nearly a week there was ample time to take to sea. And yes, even out of tge way of the second low.

Kinda inflammatory rhetoric there WAB! Wanna bet that there are not quite that many boats sunk or wrecked on the USA east coast?

And sure, it is a whopper storm and will wreak havoc, but those numbers seem wildly exaggerated to me

Jim

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by Jim Cate

Kinda inflammatory rhetoric there WAB! Wanna bet that there are not quite that many boats sunk or wrecked on the USA east coast?

And sure, it is a whopper storm and will wreak havoc, but those numbers seem wildly exaggerated to me

Jim

Hi Jim, yes a wee bit inflammatory. Like my right foot that is inflamed with ligament damage.

I got that figure from another thread where the poster was talking about the damage in the Bahamas and projected damage on the USA coast. Thinking about it I would say 100,000 boats severly damaged is over the top. But a lot of boats are going to be badly damaged. That is without question.

I pray that the livaboards up the coast have been able to seek refuge. Its very sad when you realize how many homes are standing to be wrecked. How many people tonight will be in utter terror as the full force of mother nature hits.

One thing not being spoken about is the impact this could possibly and akmost definitely will have on the barrier islands. Ocean front homes and barrier islands homes could disappear underwater. I dont think people are really understanding wgat a 10 foot sea surge can do.

I just saw a TV crew showing so many houses on one barrier island with himes wuth their kights on. So many homes with people still inside that could literally wash away. Not even the TV people spoke of the danger all these people are in. On this I sincerely hope I am being over dramatic.

[rhubstuff]

Heading east from the US east coast to avoid a hurricane approaching from the south takes you into the storm's dangerous semicircle, beating hundreds of miles into strong easterlies. I'm guessing most of the boats represented on this forum might do about 5-6 knots to weather about 45 degrees off the wind, allowing for a good deal of leeway, in brutal conditions. To sail out of the way of even a small hurricane (making some assumptions here) would take you maybe 5 days. Then, if the 5-day forecast was correct, if you are still alive, and if the storm doesn't catch you (its probably moving at 10-20 knots ground speed) you have to sail back, hoping that another storm isn't on the way. All of it would be hard on the wind in huge seas, some of them breaking, given counterclockwise tropical storm rotation. You might survive it, but even if you KNEW you'd survive, why would anyone want to do that (Dodge Morgan excepted).

[DsquareD]

Perhaps this is a silly observation, but isn't this the type of thing that boat insurance is for? What is this newbie missing?

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by rhubstuff

Heading east from the US east coast to avoid a hurricane approaching from the south takes you into the storm's dangerous semicircle, beating hundreds of miles into strong easterlies. I'm guessing most of the boats represented on this forum might do about 5-6 knots to weather about 45 degrees off the wind, allowing for a good deal of leeway, in brutal conditions. To sail out of the way of even a small hurricane (making some assumptions here) would take you maybe 5 days. Then, if the 5-day forecast was correct, if you are still alive, and if the storm doesn't catch you (its probably moving at 10-20 knots ground speed) you have to sail back, hoping that another storm isn't on the way. All of it would be hard on the wind in huge seas, some of them breaking, given counterclockwise tropical storm rotation. You might survive it, but even if you KNEW you'd survive, why would anyone want to do that (Dodge Morgan excepted).

A week ago Matthew was far enough south that if you headed out from say Melbourne or points northwards you would have had a pleasant sail. You would easily get more than 200 miles in 2 days. Then shoot south east to an island out of reach of Mathew and away from the other low formed in the Atlantic.

You are supposing leaving in the winds. I am saying with this slow moving huricane there was plenty of opportunity to get out of Dodge before things turned nasty.

[NoTies]

Originally Posted by DsquareD

Perhaps this is a silly observation, but isn't this the type of thing that boat insurance is for? What is this newbie missing?

Insurance companies require you to mitigate risk wherever possible. Failing to do this affects everyone else's premiums when the inevitable happens