Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

[bgallinger]

I see 3 issues right away. First, the unpredictability of a hurricane with respect to direction. Second, can your boat sail clear quickly enough? Lastly, don't forget about Nicole sitting out there waiting!

[GoingWalkabout]

Huricane Matthew from space. Just released by NASA

https://youtu.be/25Z_Yh2trsQ

[garibri]

I am sorry GOINGWALKABOUT that even though just about everyone has brought up some valid points here on this thread, almost no one addressed your original question without getting somewhat negative.
I have, like you, always wondered about heading out to sea, as you said like the fishing boats used to do and would love to hear more of the history of same. Maybe some old books or articles?
Although I for one have always looked for the nearest mangrove in my Beneteau 50, I am curious and will research it and see what I come up with as far as historical accounts.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by bgallinger

I see 3 issues right away. First, the unpredictability of a hurricane with respect to direction. Second, can your boat sail clear quickly enough? Lastly, don't forget about Nicole sitting out there waiting!

Matthew's course was and remains highly predictable. Of course it is too late now to make a move. 3 days ago however you could have fled out to sea safely.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by garibri

I am sorry GOINGWALKABOUT that even though just about everyone has brought up some valid points here on this thread, almost no one addressed your original question without getting somewhat negative.
I have, like you, always wondered about heading out to sea, as you said like the fishing boats used to do and would love to hear more of the history of same. Maybe some old books or articles?
Although I for one have always looked for the nearest mangrove in my Beneteau 50, I am curious and will research it and see what I come up with as far as historical accounts.

Thanks garibri. I'd be very interested in what you find.

[Blue Crab]

I didn't think she was kidding from the jump. But most of us don't have enough boat.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by capngeo

Anyone who says they will head out to sea to avoid a hurricane in anything less than a large ship or perhaps one of the steel fishing boats from Deadliest Catch is a pure fool who has never experienced a hurricane.

I have rode out some aboard... Andrew (I was up Shark River, spiderwebbed into the mangroves, and it was so rough that the only way to move about the cabin was to scoot on my butt along the sole, because it was too rough to stand), Irene, Mitch, and Georges, I was aboard in my slip in Key West (well in Georges I spent the storm in the bath house).... As a firefighter/Paramedic, I was deployed to Arcadia for Charlie and Biloxi for Katrina.

Anyone who intentionally rides out a Cat 3 or higher (even in a hurricane shelter) is a fool; Grab whats valuable to you and bug out (on land) as far and as fast as you can!

The point of sailing out is to avoid the hurricane not to experience it. True thou most sailboats are merely daysailers without the ability to motor few days and you don't want to sit floating in a calm waiting for the beast to hit. But thats why some prefer better bluewater boats than ordinary production tubs are

BR Teddy

[Scubableu]

Again, this doesn't answer the "out to sea" question but for a large number of boats it would seem going west would have been the answer. Okeechobee Waterway or rounding the keys. I have done the waterway before. Can anyone tell me if it becomes a traffic jam?

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

Matthew's course was and remains highly predictable. Of course it is too late now to make a move. 3 days ago however you could have fled out to sea safely.

I think if I had been in the Bahamas, depending on where of course, that I would have headed for Key West with the idea of getting into the Gulf. But I don't think I would have been there this time of year, I have too much to lose, and am afraid of gambling.
Of course if Matthew had headed that way I would have jumped from the pan into the fire.
Hindsight is 20/20
I think running is a viable option as long as you have somewhere to run, idea being a safe place to get to to haul the boat, hurricane hole or whatever, but running out to sea, I don't think I have the guts to try that.
I believe "back in the day" they had no option, lose the boat, lose your lifestyle, forever, you don't recover and your family lives in a much less affluent style than a boat owning fisherman's does.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by Blue Crab

I didn't think she was kidding from the jump. But most of us don't have enough boat.

I understand. If you have a sail boat 45 and above you usually have some grunt power on board. A 50' benny usually come with big engines. Cats 45' or larger are also well powered with the added advantage of having 2 big motors.

I can see the issue of smaller vessels being able to get out far enough in time.

By the way. Some have recalled how the navy would muster far off shore to escape a huricane. Then they said the navy has teams upon teams of storm plotters able to give direction and then sometimes still get it wrong. Like the Admiral who twice in 1944 and 1945 sent the 3rd fleet into cyclones in the Pacific.

The weather forecasting and hurricane tracking today available to anyone with a smartphone or computer is way and above the tracking even the navy had of yesteryear.

Still haven't heard a good reason why, if you had a good sized motor you couldn't have moved far offshore out of range of Matthew. Expecially since it was tracking days ago to run up the south east coast.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

Still haven't heard a good reason why, if you had a good sized motor you couldn't have moved far offshore out of range of Matthew. Expecially since it was tracking days ago to run up the south east coast.

You know the answer, given enough time, fuel and if you were willing to risk it, you could have.
But as I said earlier, hindsight is 20/20, there is risk associated with this, more personal risk than evacuating and heading inland anyway.
I bet a large percentage of boat owners are hoping that they sell the boat to the insurance company.
Only a very, very few are willing to risk their lives to try to save it, and running in any vessel is inherently dangerous.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

You know the answer, given enough time, fuel and if you were willing to risk it, you could have.
But as I said earlier, hindsight is 20/20, there is risk associated with this, more personal risk than evacuating and heading inland anyway.
I bet a large percentage of boat owners are hoping that they sell the boat to the insurance company.
Only a very, very few are willing to risk their lives to try to save it, and running in any vessel is inherently dangerous.

I agree. Some Hurricanes are less predictable than others. This one could have veered off further east but even a few days ago its path was pretty well set. It wouldn't have been 20/20 to head east at a pace.

You look at the hurricanes trajectory possibilities, formation, size and wind strength inner and outer. Do your running legs projections and than and only then make your decision. And as they say, he who hesitates is lost.

Next week we will be talking boat salvage and scrap parts opportunities. Also the hundreds of millions in claims hits the insurance industry is going to take that will of course be passed onto the boating community.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

The point of sailing out is to avoid the hurricane not to experience it. True thou most sailboats are merely daysailers without the ability to motor few days and you don't want to sit floating in a calm waiting for the beast to hit. But thats why some prefer better bluewater boats than ordinary production tubs are

BR Teddy

[Steadman Uhlich]

I have started a thread about Hurricane Preparation Videos that contains links to a Youtube video playlist with 40 videos related to preparing for a hurricane or tropical storm and what conditions may be expected.

Here is a link to that thread which contains a few comments and suggested videos I found particularly instructive on the issue of preparation:

http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...47#post2228947

[neilpride]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

I agree. Some Hurricanes are less predictable than others. This one could have veered off further east but even a few days ago its path was pretty well set. It wouldn't have been 20/20 to head east at a pace.

You look at the hurricanes trajectory possibilities, formation, size and wind strength inner and outer. Do your running legs projections and than and only then make your decision. And as they say, he who hesitates is lost.

Next week we will be talking boat sakvage and scrap parts opportunities. Also the hundreds of millions in claims hits the insurance industry is going to take that will of course be passed onto the boating community.

Assumption?? who know where or when is going to make the turn and who know how good or bad the fleet along the coast is well or bad secured....

I was in FL Ft, Lauderdale area when Floyd a CAT 5 monster decide to make a sharp turn to the north just when everybody claim is going to be another Andrew ......still to early to know what is going to happen...