Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by DsquareD

Perhaps this is a silly observation, but isn't this the type of thing that boat insurance is for? What is this newbie missing?

First I'm not a newbie to boats. Second, if I can safely save my property I will do it. I find your statement about insurance disturbing on a number of levels. Sorry but I don't share the same view.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by NoTies

Insurance companies require you to mitigate risk wherever possible. Failing to do this affects everyone else's premiums when the inevitable happens

I totally agree.

[DsquareD]

Originally Posted by NoTies

Insurance companies require you to mitigate risk wherever possible. Failing to do this affects everyone else's premiums when the inevitable happens

Exactly. Like boarding up windows on a house. But risking your life is not an insurance requirement. Also, you could be 100% effective at mitigating storm damage to your boat only to have someone else's boat smash into it.

[DsquareD]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

First I'm not a newbie to boats. Second, if I can safely save my property I will do it. I find your statement about insurance disturbing on a number of levels. Sorry but I don't share the same view.

Not you, me. I'm the newbie.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by DsquareD

Exactly. Like boarding up windows on a house. But risking your life is not an insurance requirement. Also, you could be 100% effective at mitigating storm damage to your boat only to have someone else's boat smash into it.

Who's talking about risking life?

Seeing the damage from boats smashing into other boats is reason enough to get away from the marina. That is of course if you have enough of a time and distance window to make a run for it.

[DsquareD]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

Who's taljing abiut risking life

I just read this entire thread and it has come up by several posters. That's why I was asking my question. I'm not sure what's disturbing about that. If I knew, I wouldn't have asked.

[NoTies]

GW and me are not talking about running into the storm, we are talking about taking action well before the event to completely miss it. Cyclone Pam was a case in point. All the clowns who stayed in the mooring field whereas they had plenty of notice to put to sea and avoid the cyclone altogether. Basic seamanship in today's forecasting environment and communications environment

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by DsquareD

I just read this entire thread and it has come up by several posters. That's why I was asking my question. I'm not sure what's disturbing about that. If I knew, I wouldn't have asked.

Understand. Throwing in the towell and not doing what you can do safely to protect your boat is in my opinion a fundamental breach of good faith by you towards your insurance company.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by NoTies

GW and me are not talking about running into the storm, we are talking about taking action well before the event to completely miss it. Cyclone Pam was a case in point. All the clowns who stayed in the mooring field whereas they had plenty of notice to put to sea and avoid the cyclone altogether. Basic seamanship in today's forecasting environment and communications environment

Well said. Common sense seamanship is obviously not so common.

[DsquareD]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

Understand. Throwing in the towell and not doung what you can do safely to protect your boat is in my opinion a fundamental breach of good faith by you towards your insurance company.

I never even hinted at throwing in the towel. I understand that certain things must be done. That's why I asked what this newbie (meaning me) was missing.

[seahag]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

Matthew's course was and remains highly predictable. Of course it is too late now to make a move. 3 days ago however you could have fled out to sea safely.

While I think this is a valid question and there could be merit in trying to run away from a hurricane, I disagree with some of your logic based mostly on the size of the storm (you mentioned 45 miles, but on your photo you can plainly see how huge the storm is) and this observation: even if you get "away" from the hurricane, the seas are going to be built up in a big way, many miles away from the storm. You won't escape the effects with say a three day window, and as others have pointed out, the path can change without warning and track right towards your location.

If there were more warning days (a week?) I think the chances of success would be much brighter, if you don't mind finding yourself 1000-1500 nm's away, heh. Could be risky to run hard away too, depending on diesel range and supply, wind and sea conditions, etc. Imagine getting 100 miles offshore, losing the engine and being a sitting duck with a hurricane charging at you. Dislike! Yes, eventually you'll have plenty of wind to sail with, no doubt, but probably too much.

Anyway, it's no picnic at the marina or moored either. Tough call but as mentioned, tucked into mangroves seems like the safest place to ride it out if that's what has to be done.

Best of luck to everyone in harm's way of this one.

[NoTies]

Seriously, has nobody heard of Buys Ballot law or know how to use it? It takes into account any change in storm direction and if used in plenty of time is bullet proof. Pure, basic, simple seamanship that seems to be missing from so many cruisers nowadays.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by seahag

While I think this is a valid question and there could be merit in trying to run away from a hurricane, I disagree with some of your logic based mostly on the size of the storm (you mentioned 45 miles, but on your photo you can plainly see how huge the storm is) and this observation: even if you get "away" from the hurricane, the seas are going to be built up in a big way, many miles away from the storm. You won't escape the effects with say a three day window, and as others have pointed out, the path can change without warning and track right towards your location.

If there were more warning days (a week?) I think the chances of success would be much brighter, if you don't mind finding yourself 1000-1500 nm's away, heh. Could be risky to run hard away too, depending on diesel range and supply, wind and sea conditions, etc. Imagine getting 100 miles offshore, losing the engine and being a sitting duck with a hurricane charging at you. Dislike! Yes, eventually you'll have plenty of wind to sail with, no doubt, but probably too much.

Anyway, it's no picnic at the marina or moored either. Tough call but as mentioned, tucked into mangroves seems like the safest place to ride it out if that's what has to be done.

Best of luck to everyone in harm's way of this one.

Hi Seahag. I said the inner part of the hurricane was 45 miles wide with the outer bands 160 miles. You could easily get out 200 to 250 miles out in 2 days. Matthew was on its current track 5 days ago. Plenty of time to head due east. And then change course based on newer forecasts.

I'm with you on the mangroves. Much better to be banged against mangroves than marina pilings and being hit by flying boats.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by NoTies

Seriously, has nobody heard of Buys Ballot law or know how to use it? It takes into account any change in storm direction and if used in plenty of time is bullet proof. Pure, basic, simple seamanship that seems to be missing from so many cruisers nowadays.

A real lesson in highs and lows.

Report of the 33 Meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science
Aug and Sept, 1863

On the System of Forecasting the Weather pursued in Holland

Professor BUYS-BALLOT
Director of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.

In the plan pursued in Holland, observations are taken at four principal places: Helder, Groningen, Flushing, and Maestricht. On the indications afforded at these places the forecasts are based.

For every day of the year, and for every hour of the day, I have very carefully determined the height of the barometer in the place of observation at that height above the sea where it is suspended. This is a cardinal point not sufficiently observed in England, and not at all in France. The difference of an observed pressure from that calculated on, I call the departure of the pressure—positive when the pressure is greater, negative when it is less. Those departures, besides the observations of the other instruments, are communicated from post to post.

The rule is now very simple. If the departures are greater (more positive) in the southern places than in the northern, greater at Maestricht or Flushing than at Groningen or Helder, the wind will have a W. in its name ; when the departures are greater in the northern places, the wind will have an E. in its name.

More accurately, you may say, the wind will be nearly at right angles with the direction of the greatest difference of pressures. When you place yourself in the direction of the wind (or in the direction of the electric current), you will have at your left the least atmospheric pressure (or the north pole of the magnet).

When the difference of pressure of the southern places above the northern is not above four millimeters, there will be no wind of a force above 30 1bs. on the square meter. Moreover, the greatest amount of rain will fall when the departures are negative; and, at the places where the departures are most negative, there also the force of the wind will be generally stronger.
Moreover, there will be no thunder if the barometric pressure is not less than two millimeters above the average height, and when at the same time the difference of the departures of temperature is considerable.

These rules, and especially the first two, were laid down by me in 1857, in the Comptes Rendus; and on the 1st of June, 1860 the first telegraphic warning by order of the Department of the Interior was given in Holland. It was unfortunate that those telegraphic warnings were not introduced four days sooner, for in that case the first communication would have been a first warning against the fearful storm of May 28, 1860, called the Finster-storm.

All of you know how amply Admiral FitzRoy has arranged the telegraphic warnings all over England. The rules used in Holland have answered well, as is shown in the translation of a paper by Mr. Klein, captain of a merchant-ship, whereto I have added my observations and signals compared with the signals of Admiral FitzRoy. My own paper dates from June 1, 1860, and is extracted by Mr. Klein; but I preferred that the less complete and precise paper of a practical man should be translated, because I thought that the seamen would put more reliance on it. From the tables added to that translation, it appears that I have warned from my four stations just as Admiral FitzRoy has done from his twenty.

It must, however, be recorded that, besides those four stations, there are also some stations—Paris, Havre, Brest, in France, and Hartlepool, Yarmouth, Portsmouth, Plymouth, in England—that send me their observations. Generally they arrive too late; and therefore they throw very little light on the forecasting.

For the future, the normal heights of barometric pressure, or, better, of the barometers which are read, must be conscientiously taken; the observation must be made at more points once a day, and mutually communicated; and at days when there are greatly different departures—that is to say, of three millimeters—or when there is change of inclination, there must be sent a message at noon or in the evening of the same day. In all cases, not only the pressure in the morning, but likewise that at night should be given. A critical indication is when on the previous day the northern stations had greater departures, and on the following day the southern had greater departures, even when the difference in the latter case was small. A caution should be given when the difference of the departures is four millimeters.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by seahag

If there were more warning days (a week?) I think the chances of success would be much brighter, if you don't mind finding yourself 1000-1500 nm's away, heh..

But there's been. I've been following the path since it was passing the ABC's a week ago and the predictions have constantly been pointing towards Bahamas and Florida. Admitted the authorities give their warnings somewhat late for a boat owner to run out but as one shouldn't following the forecasts and hurricane pages be given and be aware well before bureucrats and politics do.

BR Teddy