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Old 06-10-2016, 03:55   #31
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Anyone who says they will head out to sea to avoid a hurricane in anything less than a large ship or perhaps one of the steel fishing boats from Deadliest Catch is a pure fool who has never experienced a hurricane.

I have rode out some aboard... Andrew (I was up Shark River, spiderwebbed into the mangroves, and it was so rough that the only way to move about the cabin was to scoot on my butt along the sole, because it was too rough to stand), Irene, Mitch, and Georges, I was aboard in my slip in Key West (well in Georges I spent the storm in the bath house).... As a firefighter/Paramedic, I was deployed to Arcadia for Charlie and Biloxi for Katrina.

Anyone who intentionally rides out a Cat 3 or higher (even in a hurricane shelter) is a fool; Grab whats valuable to you and bug out (on land) as far and as fast as you can!
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Old 06-10-2016, 05:11   #32
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Possible path or paths.....

https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...w?map=ensmodel
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Old 06-10-2016, 05:20   #33
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout View Post
I would be interested to hear from those who have looked at heading out of reach of a hurricane by sailing out offshore to escape the path of a hurricane. As apposed to sitting out a hurricane on the hard or at the marina.

Looking at the cat 4 now bearing down on the east coast of the USA many thousands of boats are now sitting ducks waiting for the inevitable destruction to take place.

With today's weather tracking and forecasting we have seen this hurricane heading towards the east coast for the past few days. More than enough time to leave dock and push off eastwards well out of harms way.
Heading out early and heading east ahead of the hurricane has worked out excellent for us. The key is to go early and well ahead of the storm as in our case.... FIVE YEARS early. We knew another storm would come eventually, so we relocated our boat to the Mediterranean and it now sits safely in the Adriatic awaiting Matthew.

I'm not joking.
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Old 06-10-2016, 05:22   #34
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Trying to outrun a Cane at sea...
https://youtu.be/cR2alxL8VwA
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Old 06-10-2016, 05:28   #35
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

back in the 60's I was on a light cruiser 600 ft long. We saw green water over her 6 in turrets reaching almost to the bridge. Whilst sliding down a wave an digging the bow in the whole ship would shutter, all 28000 tons of her. When in a trough from the 02 deck some 4 stories above waterline it looked like you were in a fish bowl and the rim was above you. Our critical heel angle was 38 degrees and we did 35 one time and that was an attention getter. one must really respect the forces of nature. i have been in typhoons in the Pacific and hurricanes in the north Atlantic and they are both very bad.
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Old 06-10-2016, 05:36   #36
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

We're not in a sail boat we're in an Egg Harbor and tied up in a marina on the St. John's river. We've decided to stay onboard for the storm. With 3 cats it's not an option to shelter in a facility. I've lived in Florida over 40 years and been thru many storms. None are alike. I could not imagine going into the open ocean with not one but two storms out there. Prayers and well wishes are much appreciated!
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Old 06-10-2016, 05:38   #37
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout View Post
A good sail boat with strong engines could motor at 9K and make up some distance offshore over 4 to 5 days.


Show me the average, or even the exceedingly small list of above average sailboats that can motor into the wind, or even motorsail in a less favorable direction at 9 knots for a workweek!! If I push our small boat that hard, we'll go 6.5 knots (no adverse lumpy stuff) and burn through all of our fuel in 25-30 hours (admittedly not a 50' cat.....but the tankage in those isn't favorable to this endeavor either)



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Old 06-10-2016, 06:35   #38
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Re: Escaping a Hurricane by heading out to ocean

My boat is in the eastern Caribbean and I sail often well into the hurricane season. By early August I am getting nervous and watching the weather daily. Soon afterwards I haul out and go somewhere else.

It is possible to get a hurricane even in May or June, though with very low probabilities, so having a plan is necessary at all times. I haven't yet had to deal with one, but my plan is to sail away if possible and to monitor its location at sea and sail away a different direction if it chases after me. If I leave in time, ideally two days or maybe one depending on its speed and size then I should be able to get far away enough to be safe. I would try to go to its western or S/W segment as winds are less there and to go perpendicular to its predicted track, never to try to outrun it. It is easier to do this in the Eastern Caribbean than in the Gulf of Mexico for example or Baha, where escape routes are more limited. If an escape didn't look certain or if I had missed seeing it coming or got trapped because of where I was then I would dump the boat in the mangroves as best I could or a marina or on the hook and go and hide expecting to probably loose the boat. There is no such thing as real hurricane hole.

You don't have to get that far from most hurricanes to be safe. It is only a very small area, as in a few dozen miles (usually less) that gets the truly devastating winds. Go 300 or 400 miles away and usually you will have fine weather. That is possible in two days. Even a day will be enough mostly and with a tight, newly formed hurricane half a day should put you safe. A massive, slow old one on the other hand, further yet. It's got to be a measured, circumspect decision.

Take a look at Matthew now and compare with buoy data from Noaa. As I write the hurricane is just to the east of Andros in the Bahamas. There is a buoy 380nm perpendicular to its track to the NE and it is currently experiencing 7.5ft waves with wind of 15.kt, gusting 19kt.
A picture below from is an hour ago. It looks a lovely sailing day.

There is another weather station on its track 170nm to the NNW at the tip of Grand Bahama, which has wind of 27kt gusting 31kt. Not terrible, but that is in the worst sector. Go the same distance NW in the better sector to a weather station at Molasses Reef off the Keys and you have 20kt gusting 23kt. No issue and only a day away.

Matthew on the other hand is 109kt gusting 135. It's not a nice day there.

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Old 06-10-2016, 07:01   #39
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Originally Posted by neilpride View Post
Trying to outrun a Cane at sea...
https://youtu.be/cR2alxL8VwA
I wonder what came of that boat. Things looked pretty rough on deck, but she was afloat and seemed to have her sea anchor out...
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Old 06-10-2016, 07:02   #40
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout View Post
...............................

So I am very curious why there hasn't been a mass evacuation of vessels out of the path of monster hurricane that is now about to hit landfall of the USA East Coast in the next 48 hours.
Because most of those boats are daysailors, if they aren't marina queens, and wouldn't know how to do it, nor have adequate support systems (i.e., primarily electrical) to support them without being plugged in every night.
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Old 06-10-2016, 07:24   #41
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout View Post
I understand. But we knew matt was coming in this general direction days ago. Long enough to get out of its way if you sailed directly east placing your vessel out of the matt's path. Of course it is too late now.
Hurricanes have two sides: dangerous and navigable semicircles.
If you head east to avoid it, you will first meet the navigable semicircle winds. If you survive, you'll be exposed to winds in the dangerous semicircle (winds are counterclockwise) it could blow your boat right into the middle of it. 5 days is not enough for a sailboat to move far enough out of the wind path.
In any case, check all insurance policies before heading out.
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Old 06-10-2016, 07:46   #42
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Here's another bit of fascinating data on Matthew. Three days ago, when the hurricane wasn't quite up to full power it passed directly over a weather buoy located between Columbia and Haiti. Peak gusts 80kt and sig waves of 34ft. Wind speed was up to 65kt.

There is an amazing drop in wind as the eye of the hurricane passed over. Also look how quickly the wind gust speed rises as the hurricane approaches. 38kt to 80kt in 24 hours, then a faster decline after it has passed over, down to 42kt in just 12 hours with wave height declining fast too. Also note how closely the wind and wave curves are correlated - it doesn't take long to build those big seas.
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Old 06-10-2016, 08:01   #43
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Originally Posted by Extremelady View Post
We're not in a sail boat we're in an Egg Harbor and tied up in a marina on the St. John's river. We've decided to stay onboard for the storm. With 3 cats it's not an option to shelter in a facility. I've lived in Florida over 40 years and been thru many storms. None are alike. I could not imagine going into the open ocean with not one but two storms out there. Prayers and well wishes are much appreciated!
I wish you the best of luck. Try to find a way for the cats. They'll be happy in a parked car for a day maybe. If it is going to hit directly, then you really shouldn't be aboard. People drown now and then who do that when the boat sinks. You won't be able to leave it at the moment when you need to as you won't be able to stand or move and rocks, roofing and trees flying around at 100 mph will take you out even if you could crawl.
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Old 06-10-2016, 08:53   #44
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean



Good detailed report. 20 minutes ago. Forcasting strengthening. Palm Beach, Canaveral, Jacksonville to get worst.

https://youtu.be/GDDVJj1Pay8
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Old 06-10-2016, 09:09   #45
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

STORM SURGE UP TO 9 FEET

WTNT34 KNHC 061454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 77.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF NASSAU
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to Edisto Beach,
South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from Anclote River to Suwannee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River to Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Anclote River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The eye is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) between Andros Island and
Nassau in the Bahamas. This general motion is expected to continue
today with a turn toward the north-northwest tonight or early
Friday. On the forecast track, Matthew should cross the northwestern
Bahamas later today and move close to or over the east coast of the
Florida peninsula through Friday night.

Reports form an Air Force plane indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible, and Matthew should remain
a Category 4 hurricane while it approaches the Florida coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by an Air Force plane was
940 mb (27.76 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting the central Bahamas
and these condition will spread into the northwestern Bahamas during
the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are first expected in Florida within the next several hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents
in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of
a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including portions of the St.
Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Deerfield Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from north of Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South
Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to
8 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 20 inches
Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 8 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
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