Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

That's true only if you get caught by the storm pants down. This has been known since it was closing the ABC's so plenty of time whatever speed even 3kn would have been enough.

Absolutely agree. The edges of this hurricane are 45 miles from its core. This is why I asked the question. Why not move out of the way days ago?

[Octopussy]

I am a retired naval officer, and former Surface Warfare Officer (big ship driver). We do typically sortie the fleet (Atlantic, at least) when a hurricane is coming. However, as others have said, we can typically move a LOT faster than a sailboat can go. We go NE of the storm, and slowly work around it, until it passes. Additionally, we have a "fleet" of meteorologists vectoring us to sea and around the storm as it moves the entire time.

Unfortunately, even with the best technology, and the resources of the U.S. Government is still sometimes not enough to out-smart Mother Nature. I was stationed on the USS WASP in 1998 when Hurricane Bonnie rolled through. We sortied, and the fleet meteorologist had us turn south too soon. The storm turned as well, and we had to ride THROUGH the hurricane-- literally through it. I remember coming up topside inside the eye. It was amazing, sunny, eerily calm, hot, humid and the air was dense. We were happy to have made it that far, because the previous 48 hour sucked.... and recognized we only had a short time before we were back in hell riding out the other side of it for the next two days.

Long sea story.... but to answer the question, my ship was a "slow pig" in Navy-speak, and it could do 24 knots. We left early, and went full speed to get out to the northeast corner of the storm. So, a sailboat doing even half that would not likely have enough time to get far enough away.

Also, for what it's worth, at the time we had the U.S. government's best weather-guessers on the job... and they STILL drove us RIGHT THROUGH THE F-ing EYE of a hurricane.

My opinion: haul out, strip her down, and find a good sailor dive bar to hole up in during the storm.

Cheers,
Octopussy

S/V Octopussy

[h20man]

I must say though, that it appears that a well constructed (not leaking) vessel, can take what a hurricane can dish out.... As exemplified by the story of sv. Satori that survived (in spite of being unmanned) The Perfect Storm

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by Octopussy

I am a retired naval officer, and former Surface Warfare Officer (big ship driver). We do typically sortie the fleet (Atlantic, at least) when a hurricane is coming. However, as others have said, we can typically move a LOT faster than a sailboat can go. We go NE of the storm, and slowly work around it, until it passes. Additionally, we have a "fleet" of meteorologists vectoring us to sea and around the storm as it moves the entire time.

Unfortunately, even with the best technology, and the resources of the U.S. Government is still sometimes not enough to out-smart Mother Nature. I was stationed on the USS WASP in 1998 when Hurricane Bonnie rolled through. We sortied, and the fleet meteorologist had us turn south too soon. The storm turned as well, and we had to ride THROUGH the hurricane-- literally through it. I remember coming up topside inside the eye. It was amazing, sunny, eerily calm, hot, humid and the air was dense. We were happy to have made it that far, because the previous 48 hour sucked.... and recognized we only had a short time before we were back in hell riding out the other side of it for the next two days.

Long sea story.... but to answer the question, my ship was a "slow pig" in Navy-speak, and it could do 24 knots. We left early, and went full speed to get out to the northeast corner of the storm. So, a sailboat doing even half that would not likely have enough time to get far enough away.

Also, for what it's worth, at the time we had the U.S. government's best weather-guessers on the job... and they STILL drove us RIGHT THROUGH THE F-ing EYE of a hurricane.

My opinion: haul out, strip her down, and find a good sailor dive bar to hole up in during the storm.

Cheers,
Octopussy

S/V Octopussy

What an experience. It would make a great movie. Seriously. Glad it was you and not me. You were most likely in Norfolk. I am sure you know that hurricane's have their own speeds and dimensions. This one has been a slow moving with an average of 10mph. The width is pretty narrow with 45mile from core to edge.

If you were in the Bahamas and saw this coming 3 days ago you had plenty of time to get out to other islands and nestle in out of harms way.

The guys in Miami and all the way up the coast are going to get blasted. This is probably going to be one in a 100 years hit all the way up the coast.

As a digression, I wonder what this is going to do to next years insurance rates?

[Steve Bean]

For the story of a big schooner that did not survive an attempt to avoid/outrun a hurricane, look up "schooner Fantome.". Hurricane Mitch, 1998. 31 lost.

[SV DestinyAscen]

You can't dry dock an entire fleet - even large ships aren't immune, look up Typhoon Cobra (TF38). My wife's father sailed throough it. Horrible exp.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by SV DestinyAscen

You can't dry dock an entire fleet - even large ships aren't immune, look up Typhoon Cobra (TF38). My wife's father sailed throough it. Horrible exp.

The Admiral should have been relieved of duty. Six months later he lead the 3rd fleet for a second time following the Cobra Typhoon into another Typhoon.

The Cobra and the six month later typhoon were both cat 4. The following video shows what its like being on a battle ship in a cat 4.

https://youtu.be/vNkuW6jCuI0

[david samuelson]

If you stay in harbour you may lose your vessel, if you go to sea you can lose your life.

[Jim Cate]

Originally Posted by h20man

I must say though, that it appears that a well constructed (not leaking) vessel, can take what a hurricane can dish out.... As exemplified by the story of sv. Satori that survived (in spite of being unmanned) The Perfect Storm

The "Perfect Storm" was nasty weather, but hardly like a cat 5 cyclone. The analogy is not valid.

Having been at sea in a couple of full storm condition blows, I bloody well do not want to be at sea in or even near a cat 5 (or 4, or 3... etc).

A few yachts have survived cyclones. More that were exposed have not.

Jim

[bigpuff]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

I would be interested to hear from those who have looked at heading out of reach of a hurricane by sailing out offshore to escape the path of a hurricane. As apposed to sitting out a hurricane on the hard or at the marina.

Looking at the cat 4 now bearing down on the east coast of the USA many thousands of boats are now sitting ducks waiting for the inevitable destruction to take place.

With today's weather tracking and forecasting we have seen this hurricane heading towards the east coast for the past few days. More than enough time to leave dock and push off eastwards well out of harms way.

Reading stories from the old days it was common for whole fishing fleets to cast off and head out to the oceans away from the direct path major storms. It is still done by the Navy if they have time to relocate ships out in the deep ocean and out of a pending major storms path.

So I am very curious why there hasn't been a mass evacuation of vessels out of the path of monster hurricane that is now about to hit landfall of the USA East Coast in the next 48 hours.

it takes balls to head out and lay ahull in 120 kts.

[Three Sisters]

Avoid Nicole, too, while escaping.


Matthew may swallow up Nicole if one of the

180 degree track projections materialize


So there's that

[weavis]

Having been in Hurricane Charley, 2004, and a boat in Port Charlotte (west coast Florida) a lot of consideration was given to what to do.

Firstly, NO ONE KNEW the exact track of the Hurricane.
Secondly, Where do you take the boat?

The route of the storm changed by the warmth of the river sucking it inland..straight over my boat and destroying it and straight to Arcadia where it devastated the area and my home.

There was no where to go in that storm.







There goes the dream...

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by sailorchic34

One model show our buddy matt, turning north east then south east. There is no where, safe to run at 6 knots, when matt is running 8.7 knots and his course is up in the air. Better by far to tie up in the mangroves.

edit: plus there is another low 600 miles east of Matt. Plus the winds and seas are up for hundreds of miles off shore.

Since I have started spending more of my time in cyclone prone areas (hurricane or rotating tropical storm) I have pondered deeply on avoidance strategies and considered the run away strategy as one of them. However i is as Sailorchic34 says, the bloody things are unpredictable in both direction and speed of advance and they do affect the winds and seas for hundreds of miles around.

Getting as far from the open sea as one can, preferably in a side stream with lots of big mangroves around to tie to, is the best strategy and, in my opinion from what I have observed over the past few years in north eastern Australia, far better than staying in a marina.

[weavis]

I must admit the edge was taken off my desire to continue living in Florida, as successive years continued to have huge storms.

There is little one can do unless at the first sign of a cell forming way over off Africa, a person heads out. But then many of those cells diminish and fade.

The track of a storm covers a wide area. I considered going across to Texas or down to Mexico and round but at the time there was not enough information to make that decision.

Just do the very best you can and hope for the best. But not a good idea to be at sea in the path of the weather.

One of my cars was blown through a neighbours front room, Along with a lot of the contents of my house..and in turn his brick rear wall was 200 foot down the road. I took shelter in a friends newly built solid block house about 2 miles away. When the storm was over... it took 5 hours to drive back. Had to move trees and be careful of electric lines on the roads. Police were out everywhere trying to sort the situation. I didnt even worry about the boat, I knew if it was not toast it would be crumbs. a few days later we found the boat under a few others.

Thinking about it now, something I tend not to do, Im glad Im a person that does not get attached to material possessions or have a life history invested in photos and an area, many of my friends there did and the women especially suffered the loss.

It is what it is.

[Three Sisters]

One can only guess. Unless experienced firsthand.