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Old 10-10-2016, 11:05   #211
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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It was certain the storm could curve. They all do. But how much it could curve was unknown until too late (unless you are Steve and Linda in their present boat). And so the offshore decision was not 'smart' or 'seamanlike', it was just a bet.
How many hurricanes have curved around and come back south in the last 20 years? I'm willing to bet VERY few.

That portion of the forecast was just way off base. Would have had to have been a really powerful driving force coming across the US, or a very powerful high out in the Atlantic to have steered it that way.

If I had had my nice new 65' cat in St Augustine I'd have already had a proper parachute anchor system onboard, and I would have tried to recruit one other person to go with me to as far east as I could have made it. Then set the anchor before things got really bad, and rode the storm out pointed into the storm. I would have wanted to be in open ocean with no obstacles around as opposed to trying to fend off god only knows what at an inshore location.

If you bother to read those MULTIPLE successful accounts of vessels surviving horrendous conditions while tethered to a proper sea anchor then you have to come away believing it really is doable and good seamanship.

I spent 2 days in 65-70 knots of wind (an intense low pressure system) between Va beach and Bermuda in a winter time Atlantic storm,...some running with the storm and finely some hove-to. The most comfortable time was hove to, And I think it might have been even more comfortable anchored bow to the sea.

PS: The Navy doesn't send its ships to sea in big approaching storms for nothing.....get them away from the docks and other obstacles, and grounding.
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Old 10-10-2016, 11:11   #212
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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How many hurricanes have curved around and come back south in the last 20 years? I'm willing to bet VERY few.

That portion of the forecast was just way off base. Would have had to have been a really powerful driving force coming across the US, or a very powerful high out in the Atlantic to have steered it that way.

If I had had my nice new 65' cat in St Augustine I'd have already had a proper parachute anchor system onboard, and I would have tried to recruit one other person to go with me to as far east as I could have made it. Then set the anchor before things got really bad, and rode the storm out pointed into the storm. I would have wanted to be in open ocean with no obstacles around as opposed to trying to fend off god only knows what at an inshore location.

If you bother to read those MULTIPLE successful accounts of vessels surviving horrendous conditions while tethered to a proper sea anchor then you have to come away believing it really is doable and good seamanship.

I spent 2 days in 65-70 knots of wind (an intense low pressure system) between Va beach and Bermuda in a winter time Atlantic storm,...some running with the storm and finely some hove-to. The most comfortable time was hove to, And I think it might have been even more comfortable anchored bow to the sea.

PS: The Navy doesn't send its ships to sea in big approaching storms for nothing.....get them away from the docks and other obstacles, and grounding.
Good luck with the recruitment ,
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Old 10-10-2016, 11:13   #213
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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So with Nicole trying to play the Fujiwhara game with Matthew in the east my only option can be the continent, FL. No problem so far for me to exit the Exumas by a cut and work my way to Gun Cay and make a straight shoot to FL , done dozen of times...
How long does that take? I assume a good portion is daylight only?
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Old 10-10-2016, 11:27   #214
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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How long does that take? I assume a good portion is daylight only?
With a early departure plenty of time, Chub Cay in the Berry,s , pass the cut to the bank and gun cay, I cross the bank in nighttime on a couple of occasions with full moon and fine weather , not recommended if you don't know well the cut entrance....
Can be a overnight in Chub Cay , cross the bank early morning and if you still have sun cross the cut entrance in gun cay and voila, the gulf stream.... Ohh and I forgot to mention out of topic , I spend one of the most beautiful nights in my life anchored in the middle of the bank....
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Old 10-10-2016, 11:50   #215
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

for those proposing a Gulf stream crossing, either heading west out of the bahamas, or east to open ocean----how do you manage the timing of the crossing??? what if the wind is strong out of the north when you get there??
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Old 10-10-2016, 12:46   #216
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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for those proposing a Gulf stream crossing, either heading west out of the bahamas, or east to open ocean----how do you manage the timing of the crossing??? what if the wind is strong out of the north when you get there??
Cold fronts start to roll in winter , then with a 150 mph hurricane in my ass I can digest whatever crap the gulf stream have for me.
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Old 10-10-2016, 12:46   #217
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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I remember post in the Pam cyclone Thread , and seems you stay there tied to the concrete? ,, wonder why you don't leave the island to outrun the worst,,, and also wonder if you manage before to outrun a big cane at sea?
Two reasons, one the boat was pending refit & I did not consider it seaworthy for a bluewater trip so we craned it out and tied it down and two, we knew our business was going to get real busy real fast with all the fools who elected to stay in the "bowling alley" directly in the well forecast path of a Cat 5 system.
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Old 10-10-2016, 12:47   #218
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Two reasons, one the boat was pending refit & I did not consider it seaworthy for a bluewater trip so we craned it out and tied it down and two, we knew our business was going to get real busy real fast with all the fools who elected to stay in the "bowling alley" directly in the well forecast path of a Cat 5 system.
Amen.
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Old 10-10-2016, 12:48   #219
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Making the offshore decision can be easier if you are on an island with plenty of ocean each way. But on Florida you are one side bound.

Part of the discussion here is a bit naive perhaps as no one (I think) suggested just lifting the boat and driving her 100 miles INSHORE.

Would not you agree this was a very safe bet given the forecasts?

It was certain the storm could curve. They all do. But how much it could curve was unknown until too late (unless you are Steve and Linda in their present boat). And so the offshore decision was not 'smart' or 'seamanlike', it was just a bet.

Make your bets and face the consequences. Count yourself lucky you came thru alive. Many did not.

Do not overvalue the relationship between your decisions and the final result. It is not so much your decision as it is pure luck. Maybe 50/50, at best.

b.
If the decision was taken early enough the Florida boats could have shot down the coast and into the Gulf
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Old 10-10-2016, 13:52   #220
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

50/50. You are a hero or a zero.
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Old 10-10-2016, 14:00   #221
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Seaman or land lubber 50/50
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Old 10-10-2016, 14:03   #222
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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If the decision was taken early enough the Florida boats could have shot down the coast and into the Gulf
A lot of times storms FORM in the gulf, and either hit the gulf coast or ride the gulf stream around Fla. and into the Atlantic. I know nothing about your area of the S. Pacific, but it sounds like a very different risk/benefit analysis might be required along the U.S. eastern seaboard & Carib.
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Old 10-10-2016, 14:19   #223
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

It's generally the land that sinks a boat.
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Old 10-10-2016, 14:24   #224
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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How many hurricanes have curved around and come back south in the last 20 years? I'm willing to bet VERY few.

I'm willing to bet you're right, but the fact remains that many of the forecast models predicted Matthew curving around, albeit in a weakened state.

That portion of the forecast was just way off base. Would have had to have been a really powerful driving force coming across the US, or a very powerful high out in the Atlantic to have steered it that way.

Apparently it was a cold front coming across the continent from the west, the same one which caused Matthew to abruptly head out to sea from the Carolinas.

If I had had my nice new 65' cat in St Augustine I'd have already had a proper parachute anchor system onboard, and I would have tried to recruit one other person to go with me to as far east as I could have made it. Then set the anchor before things got really bad, and rode the storm out pointed into the storm. I would have wanted to be in open ocean with no obstacles around as opposed to trying to fend off god only knows what at an inshore location.

Depending on how far east in this particular case, you may be dealing with the effects of Nicole, and possibly the remnants of Matthew as you try and sail back to St. Augustine. This is assuming that another storm isn't already forming as it is the height of the season with the warmest sea temps.

If you bother to read those MULTIPLE successful accounts of vessels surviving horrendous conditions while tethered to a proper sea anchor then you have to come away believing it really is doable and good seamanship.

I've read some of those accounts too, and it seems sea anchors are deployed as a last resort in survival-type conditions. There are downsides too, and other options which have been repeatedly used successfully.

I spent 2 days in 65-70 knots of wind (an intense low pressure system) between Va beach and Bermuda in a winter time Atlantic storm,...some running with the storm and finely some hove-to. The most comfortable time was hove to, And I think it might have been even more comfortable anchored bow to the sea.

It sounds like you are more experienced than most. Not many recreational sailors would be out there in winter, even the more experienced & accomplished ones. The N. Atlantic in winter is not to be trifled with.

PS: The Navy doesn't send its ships to sea in big approaching storms for nothing.....get them away from the docks and other obstacles, and grounding.
20kts+ steel warships vs. small, mostly fiberglass recreational vessels . . . already discussed. But hey, if you've done your own risk/benefit analysis and feel it's worth attempting to safeguard your boat then more power to ya. But as Neil wrote, best of luck recruiting crew to join.
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Old 10-10-2016, 14:25   #225
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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It's generally the land that sinks a boat.
Nahhh, is not the land, is the fools who don't prepare well for the conditions, or its to expensive or to complex, my ex CSY survive Lenny, Gonzalo, Georges, Earl, I dodge Luis, thx god.... get your numbers straight and count how many cruising boats dodge Canes at sea please.... and how many are missing in the attempt.
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