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Old 09-10-2016, 08:10   #181
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Originally Posted by Lodesman View Post
These guys escaped to Miami from Freeport:

Video is filled with a lot of nonsense, and the timeline is not very clear, but what is clear is that hundreds of miles ahead of the storm does not mean E winds and mountainous seas.

I would also recommend that contrary to what is shown in the video, proper storm prep would include removing the sails and bimini top and stowing them below.

The take-away from this, is that done early enough, you have plenty of time to remove a boat from the direct path of a hurricane. Of course you take your chances that the hurricane will change its path and hit you nonetheless. That said, modern storm predictions are pretty good, and certainly have proven quite accurate up to 3 days in the future, and provide a reasonable indication of the general path of the storm a couple days beyond that.
Thanks lodesman. Your observations are absolutely correct. A good case of dodging a bullet by getting out if its way.
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Old 09-10-2016, 09:01   #182
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Thanks lodesman. Your observations are absolutely correct. A good case of dodging a bullet by getting out if its way.
Only in hindsight perhaps. Although Miami escaped the brunt of the storm, it was certainly included in the earlier forecast predictions. But given the choice, I would prefer to be in Miami than the Bahamas, if not for the sake of the boat than certainly for its captain & crew.

Although heading out to sea may be prudent in some parts of the world, I'm not convinced it's all that sensible to attempt to do so in the N. Atlantic during hurricane season. As we saw again this season, many of these storms forming off the African coast wind up tracking well to the east, i.e. Bermuda & beyond, and there is often insufficient certainty in the forecast until it may be too late in a 6-8 kt. sailboat. The exception, as already noted, is if you are already in the S. Carib and can head below hurricane latitude -- e.g. Trinidad.

In other words, it can be dangerous to generalize . . . .
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Old 09-10-2016, 09:58   #183
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Exactly.

Do NOT mistake your natural inclination to rationalize post-factum with your ability to make 'the right' decisions before things happen. This is a common trap and most fall in. But once you know it is out there, you can adjust your ways to avoid it!

If it were otherwise, we would all have made millions trading weather derivatives.

b.
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Old 09-10-2016, 10:39   #184
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

The boat and crew to me,, made the right decision, get out of Bahamas and sail to the continent,, quite diferent if you set sail to the open ocean ...
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Old 09-10-2016, 11:33   #185
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Sorry zeehag. I don't see the connection with this topic. You have 2 sailboats in Washington State who for one reason or another had to abandon ship. One lost his mast and the other in a more than 50' sail boat couldn't handle 50K gusts. The first most likely hadn't checked his rigging in a long time and the second was a typical day sailor who had no idea on how to handle his sailboat in anything more than a 1' swell.

If you have large fuel tanks. Know how to use a sea anchor or drogue and you have onboard weather communications along with good navigation skills you are better off to take off a few days ahead of a hurricane. Of course where you navigate is all important and will be based on what is now reliable weather data. And it goes without saying that you should inspect your rigging and not go out unless all is A OK.

A bunch of guys easily got out of the Bahamas in time and made a safe port in Miami before Matthew hit. I suppose they should have stayed in their mooring and have been wrecked like so many other boats.

If you have a small sailboat without the legs and speed to get where you need to get to be safe than stay put or head up a creek into the mangroves. If you aren't prepared with checked rigging and a ample fuel then also stay put. But if you are a sailor, well prepared in all things then run west if you've got a Northerly tracking hurricane. When far enough west you can tack South West towards the outer Islands. Watch for up to the minute low pressure tracking and act accordingly.

No reason to be a sitting duck if you know what your doing. If you don't and your a fine weather sailor then tie up and pray.
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Old 09-10-2016, 11:55   #186
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Doggone, everyones an expert on the net.
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Old 09-10-2016, 12:11   #187
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Doggone, everyones an expert on the net.
WAB:
I'd be more willing to accept your opinions if you had any sailing experience that we could verify. My guess is you usually wear an "Admiral" tee shirt.
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Old 09-10-2016, 12:24   #188
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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WAB:
I'd be more willing to accept your opinions if you had any sailing experience that we could verify. My guess is you usually wear an "Admiral" tee shirt.
I don't have to prove anything to the likes of you or anybody else. You are the type who likes to attack the person rather than discuss the topic. Wearing an Admiral tee shirt. What an idiotic and patronizing thing to say you small little man.
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Old 09-10-2016, 12:41   #189
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Interesting how this thread has degenerated now that Mathew has passed and followed the track I theorized it would back when it was still south of Cuba.
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Old 09-10-2016, 12:41   #190
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

GWA,

Sometimes you take things as personal that are not meant to be so.

It is crazy talk IMO to even think about trying to head out from the east coast of Florida in a tiny yacht to get past a hurricane just to save the boat. The risk is too great for anybody to think like that.

Stop looking at the actual track of Mathew and then guessing what you could have done knowing the track. This is a futile exercise because one cannot know the track well enough in advance to have any hope of being 100% sure they will get past the bad quadrant of the storm. For 100% sure you can save your life by simply traveling 100 miles inland.

No matter how good the NHC is in predicting the track of a hurricane they are accurate only 3-4 days out. That's simply not enough time to be sure you can safely make a passage.
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Old 09-10-2016, 13:58   #191
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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I don't have to prove anything to the likes of you or anybody else. You are the type who likes to attack the person rather than discuss the topic. Wearing an Admiral tee shirt. What an idiotic and patronizing thing to say you small little man.
All talk and no action, or rather.... hot air and no substance. It's a lot different when one has some skin in the game rather than just a computer screen in front of their face.

"In the market for a Lagoon 56"
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Old 09-10-2016, 14:18   #192
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Im not feeling the love.

Need to be nice.
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Old 10-10-2016, 03:25   #193
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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All talk and no action, or rather.... hot air and no substance. It's a lot different when one has some skin in the game rather than just a computer screen in front of their face.

"In the market for a Lagoon 56"
Is there any reason why the personal attacks and belittling comments have been reserved for GoingWalkAbout and yet nothing has been directed at me who has been saying essentially the same thing. I didn't think CF would be a place where sexism & misogyny was so blatantly evident.
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Old 10-10-2016, 03:43   #194
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout View Post
I don't have to prove anything to the likes of you or anybody else. You are the type who likes to attack the person rather than discuss the topic. Wearing an Admiral tee shirt. What an idiotic and patronizing thing to say you small little man.
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Is there any reason why the personal attacks and belittling comments have been reserved for GoingWalkAbout and yet nothing has been directed at me who has been saying essentially the same thing. I didn't think CF would be a place where sexism & misogyny was so blatantly evident.
Looks to me like Goingwalkabout makes her own fair share of rude comments like the one above.
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Old 10-10-2016, 03:46   #195
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

I believe she was responding to an attack, not making one. ANd making a legitimate observation in the process. Ad Hominem.
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