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Old 07-10-2016, 16:36   #151
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

by the way--keys--yer gettin a lil weather coming. complete withyour own surge.
some sources say td and some say dissipation, some say ts.
i think, and i am no way a jerko with creds--i am a jerko without em. i think i would watch nhc to see what they are giving as a omy and go by that. so far nhc only been able to accurately predict about 2 days in advance. and then your tv stations modify them to suit their ratings h aha ha ha ha
pay attention to nhc predictions, as so far they have been the best--guess what-- all others are based on them, so..
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Old 07-10-2016, 16:40   #152
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Originally Posted by Mr B View Post
That channel is 600 feet deep, It drops to 300 feet right on the edge, At Havvanna, On the east side of the channel, The place I parked was 14 feet deep, and there wasnt much of it,
It was set back from the channel and would be protection from the wind howling straight up the channel
It was the only shallow part in the whole channel,

And it was only a suggestion, What you do with your boat is up to you,
With a couple of days notice of an impending big storm,

I would be out to sea where the storm wasnt heading,
Like avoiding the storm completely,
Which most of you people cant comprehend,

EG; If the storm is going north, You go east or west, 3 days puts you 300 miles to the side of the storm, Thats at 5 knots, I carry 750 miles of fuel, For just such occasions, If you cant sail or no wind, Etc Etc,
Mr B, I'm having a hard time finding your safe anchorage spot from your description. Could you please post the coordinates of that spot? Might need it one day...

Jim
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Old 07-10-2016, 17:22   #153
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Originally Posted by Jim Cate View Post
Mr B, I'm having a hard time finding your safe anchorage spot from your description. Could you please post the coordinates of that spot? Might need it one day...

Jim
Look at the pin I put on the Google Earth shot.
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Old 07-10-2016, 17:26   #154
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Look at the pin I put on the Google Earth shot.
Sorry, Pete, where is that posted?

Jim

PS We've spent a bit of time in Havannah Harbour, and I'm having a hard time reconciling my memories of it with the (not so hot) chart of the area and Mr B's statements.
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Old 07-10-2016, 17:36   #155
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Post 149 Jim. It's the creek that comes out where the Moso Island boats used to land on the Efate side until they got booted to the end of the point.
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Old 07-10-2016, 17:47   #156
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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150 knots of SW at its peak, not somewhere I want to be.
With regards to the pinned spot on Google earth, Oh, she says, THAT creek.

That'd be interesting. We've been up there [pause], by dinghy. We've anchored outside the delta from the creek.

Heck, I wouln't be happy where we anchored in anything over 20. But, I am thinking that possibly, a shallow draft cat might be able to get a ways up there.
Still, even if I had a cat, I wouldn't want to pass a cyclone in there.

Ann
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Old 07-10-2016, 18:22   #157
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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it takes balls to head out and lay ahull in 120 kts.
Not to mention having 3/4 of your brain removed.

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Originally Posted by Kenomac View Post
The crew of the Bounty had plenty of "grunt power" on board and look what happened to them. Most reasonable people don't want to end up dead trying to save a leisure boat... It's really just that simple.
Mutiny? Burning the boat and getting stranded on Pitcairn?
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Old 07-10-2016, 19:28   #158
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Reading this thread, there was one thing which I thought was odd. Some of you really believe that we can predict the track of a hurricane or cyclone reasonably accurate.

Look at the prediction for Matthew done on the 1st of October



Now tell me which of the predicted tracks did the bastard take?



Thats right, he took the one that was not even predicted.

Good luck to all of you who think they can head out in order to avoid the storm.
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Old 07-10-2016, 19:36   #159
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Following Buys Ballot law would have taken a Florida yacht well away from the predicted and actual path of the system and into plenty of sea room if action taken early enough. The key is to get where you can put the wind on the starboard side in the northern hemisphere. Even the next couple of states north could have done the same thing. Everybody was probably suffering analysis paralysis or they weren't seamen.
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Old 07-10-2016, 20:04   #160
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

Quote:
Originally Posted by adoxograph View Post
Reading this thread, there was one thing which I thought was odd. Some of you really believe that we can predict the track of a hurricane or cyclone reasonably accurate.

Look at the prediction for Matthew done on the 1st of October



Now tell me which of the predicted tracks did the bastard take?



Thats right, he took the one that was not even predicted.

Good luck to all of you who think they can head out in order to avoid the storm.
The most interesting part about the hook pattern and prediction its wrong Mathew will continue up the coast and dissipate in the north Atlantic.
The location they predict for Mathew on Monday is the same place that Nicole is projected to be at the same time as she dissipates while heading almost due west .
That is my observations and prediction for the pair of storms. Fwiw IMO
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Old 07-10-2016, 20:31   #161
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Originally Posted by adoxograph View Post


Now tell me which of the predicted tracks did the bastard take?


.
You're posting a 6-day old spaghetti plot, showing every model was within 50 miles of what came to be, out to about 3 days since the predictions were made, and the few models that predicted a more westerly track have shown to be accurate 6 days on. What is your point, exactly?
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Old 07-10-2016, 20:39   #162
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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So let's assume 4 knots for 48 hours is a little under 200 knots. Overlay that on a hurricane trajectory and you're still within the cone of uncertainty.
Knots is for speed; I think you meant "nautical miles". Anyway, I don't know what you base your cone of uncertainty on, but the NHC puts the 2/3 probability radius for 48 hours as 84 miles, not 200.
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Old 08-10-2016, 05:37   #163
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Originally Posted by NoTies View Post
Following Buys Ballot law would have taken a Florida yacht well away from the predicted and actual path of the system and into plenty of sea room if action taken early enough. The key is to get where you can put the wind on the starboard side in the northern hemisphere. Even the next couple of states north could have done the same thing. Everybody was probably suffering analysis paralysis or they weren't seamen.
Ok guys,, lets sail to the Azores for a picnic.....
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:19   #164
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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Back at the beginning of this thread I stated I had been watching this storm since last Fri., cause I had. I was watching it worried that it might get into the Gulf where I am.
But last Fri if I had been in the Bahamas, I would have left for KW, and then into the Gulf, cause if nothing else i feel that I could have found a safer place to be on the West coast of Fl than I could in the Bahamas.
....good move, and you would have been on the weaker side of the hurricane, and likely have gotten extra push out of the east to west winds on the top of that storm.

The Bahamas do NOT have any good hurricane holes,...and like the Navy guy above said, some of these so called hurricane holes can be a storm magnifier. In the Bahamas you will likely end up blown up onto land
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Old 08-10-2016, 10:54   #165
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Re: Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

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....good move, and you would have been on the weaker side of the hurricane, and likely have gotten extra push out of the east to west winds on the top of that storm.

The Bahamas do NOT have any good hurricane holes,...and like the Navy guy above said, some of these so called hurricane holes can be a storm magnifier. In the Bahamas you will likely end up blown up onto land

Hmm. Hundreds of islands with no good hurricane holes? Doesn't pass the smell test. How do any boats then survive the many storms that hit the Bahamas?



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