Cruising and the Coming Storm ~ Recession, Depression, Climate Change, Peak Oil

[maxingout]

I lived outside the USA and worked in the third world for 28 years. I have no worries about cruising in most parts of the world. The places where I have lived and visited have never heard of the Dow or the stock market. They live in subsistent economies in rural areas, and they have a self-sustaining lifestyle. They grow their own food and whether they get a few hundred dollars a year isn't particularly important. They aren't addicted to dollars and luxuries. They are not in debt, they don't have credit cards, and they don't make house payments. They exist independently of the world financial system on a few hundred dollars a year.

People in large cities are dependent on a stable supply of goods from the outside. I once read that all the food in New York city must be restocked completely every week, because there is only one weeks food supply stocked on the shelves. I would not cruise to New York or any other major metropolitan area if there is a collapse.

But I can think of hundreds of third world destinations where subsistence economies would continue without 401ks, IRAs, stocks, and bonds.

The rich countries are going through a lifestyle collapse, an expectations collapse, an evaporation of retirement funds collapse. For most of the subsistence people around the world, it's business as usual.

If you plan to cruise to densely populated cities burdened with debt, then cruising will be an adventure in competition, struggle, and survival. If you plan to cruise to the thousands of self-sufficient subsistence destinations on the seven seas, you will have an awesome adventure.

When I sailed around the world the first time, I ate the same food that the natives ate, and if I do another circumnavigation I will eat the same healthy diet again. The sailboat is paid for and the wind is still free.

I'm not worried about sailing around the world. It's the chaos in the developed world that's a worry. If it gets any worse at home, I may have to go cruising where it's safe.

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by maxingout

If you plan to cruise to the thousands of self-sufficient subsistence destinations on the seven seas, you will have an awesome adventure. .

Cruising Australian waters for an Aussie aint half the fun we had where we had to learn a few words of another language to get by. We acn't wait till July when we unfurl our dacron wings and head to Indonesia


Mark

[Robertcateran]

I want to get back to some of the more remote areas of PNG. Just don't want another bout of dengue.

[Icetug]

The problems I see on the horizon do come from a mentality of scarcity. This board has many threads about raising costs of cruising around the US and Carib. Lots of places passing laws against anchoring, requirements to pay fees to keep your boat in a certain states over 90 days, paying taxes on boats that exceed a certain time period in the state, port of entry fees skyrocketing, customs fees skyrocketing, etc. Add to that crushing poverty in many places and the collapse of the resort/tourist industry over the last couple of years and theft/violence rise. Local governments also seem to view boat owners as deep pockets for any fee or tax they can come up with. Personally I plan to stay cruising along the East and Gulf coasts, avoiding FL as a long term destination because of local government hostility to cruisers. I don't plan to do any Central or South America because of crime and instability. I would rather take my chances on an Atlantic crossing than the uncertain welcomes cruisers receive in those areas.

[maxingout]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

Cruising Australian waters for an Aussie aint half the fun we had where we had to learn a few words of another language to get by. We acn't wait till July when we unfurl our dacron wings and head to Indonesia


Mark

When you get to Darwin, go to the photocopy shop, and the owner can get you any chart of Indonesia that you want. He has cruised Indonesia many times and can give you the real story about remote Indonesian cruising. I had him mark up our charts. He has lots of tips about checking in places that are far off the beaten path.

[MarkJ]

[quote=maxingout;264087]When you get to Darwin, go to the photocopy shop, and the owner can get you any chart of Indonesia that you want. /quote]

Thanks Dave. I'll do that


Mark

[jtbsail]

Hi all,
Came back here to check on the thread and whoa! I've got a lot of great responses!

1. We are definitely going cruising, it's just the details of how we're going to do it.

2. We are more in the pessimistic camp about how developed nations will probably be going thru a reality check soon. I'm not sure how much climate will play but sure about increased costs, and possibly safety zones.

We will try to be as self-sufficient as possible. Growing sprouts as someone (maybe jokingly) suggested and also growing herbs. We will have a water maker and do our own repairs within reason/ability. We are both pretty handy and adaptable folks. My husband has traveled the world many times over. We are pretty confident that we can adapt and adjust.

As for the media influencing us, well we haven't had cable television in years so it's more about studying the evidence. "It's science, learn about it"--to reference some funny movie whose name escapes me.

We are already in the process of simplifying our lives, we are about to be 100% debt free in a few months (including mortage). We live, quite happily, without many modern conveniences.

We will have a "base camp" house (small/simple/modest) in which we will live part time to grow some food to preserve and take along to help offset the cost of buying off the local economies when we are traveling. During the time spent traveling on boat, we would rent out said house to increase cruising funds.

I see that we all have our different opinions on this topics. Which is great-variety being the spice of life and all. Some are optimists, some realists (like myself ), some pessimists. I do think that events to come WILL affect the cruising community, to what degree is the question?

Reframing my question-As we said, we're going to do this, we would like any advice, direction, etc. to help us fullfill our dream of being more self-sufficient. Please don't say the Pardey's, because we have every book

[maxingout]

It's not the high cost of living that sinks cruising dreams. It's the cost of living high that stops most people in their tracks.

Joshua Slocum rebuilt his own boat and Harry Pigeon built Islander on the beach in California, and both circumnavigated without engines. Once you decide how high you want to live, and whether you are willing to do whatever it takes, the details have a way of working themselves out.

Check out this link to Harry Pigeon's story, and get a copy of his book. His second circumnavigation was in the Great Depression. http://www.positivegraphics.com/Positivegraphic29.htm

[Celestialsailor]

Hi Dave...Checked out your site..Very cool and very informative with real life experience with cruising gear. While I agree one should not live too high on the hog to go cruising, there is still a certain output of money. I have talked to a few folks who do it for $500us a month. That is certainly in the reach of most people. I'm sure the largest costs are boat maintenance.

[maxingout]

Originally Posted by Celestialsailor

Hi Dave...Checked out your site..Very cool and very informative with real life experience with cruising gear. While I agree one should not live too high on the hog to go cruising, there is still a certain output of money. I have talked to a few folks who do it for $500us a month. That is certainly in the reach of most people. I'm sure the largest costs are boat maintenance.

Boat maintenance is an unavoidable cost, but even there you can keep costs down by having simple easy to maintain systems on board.

I believe in starting a circumnavigation with new sails, new rigging, and a new engine on a boat with simple systems. Then you can be in the $500 a month zone when you get underway.

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by maxingout

Boat maintenance is an unavoidable cost, but even there you can keep costs down by having simple easy to maintain systems on board.

I believe in starting a circumnavigation with new sails, new rigging, and a new engine on a boat with simple systems. Then you can be in the $500 a month zone when you get underway.

This is the approach I am aiming for. Never have been one for loads of mod cons onshore - or for spending money - so for me the concept is not a stretch......of course folk have differing needs and wants, so one approach does not fit all. But it would be a dull world if folk all liked / did the same approach to stuff.

Of course whether I get there (or go anywhere ) or not is another question

[Ram]

I dont see getting away with $500 a month anymore these days- unless your mostly in very remote and poor countrys like Africa, India and the like- I watch every penny and im still well over $1200 a month- and thats with out any repairs- food , fuel , ect

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by maxingout

Then you can be in the $500 a month zone when you get underway.

Holy Budgets Batman, We must be livin high on the hog!!!!!!!!
We are running on many multiples of that and we are skint as....

We are so poor the wind gives us a discount.

I seriously don't know how anyone could do it for $500 per month.

Uless they were full provisioned before they left, and as Dave says with a fully top notch boat

[MoonlightShadow]

FWIW.

What direction will the future take? I don't know. But it is my view that this is different to previous recessions. Why? Because whatever the causes, we are trying to get out of it in a different manner to that generally adopted historically. We are trying to borrow our way out of it (Governmentally speaking). Net result: we will be poorer for longer as we have to repay the borrowings, and the borrowings will run out when no one can lend us any more money. And, as we are in a state of reducing GDPs, it will take us longer to repay/recover.

However, when we actually look at the historic facts of money supply and all that, World Wars have put us in similar situations before, and we have recovered. To talk of total collapse, is therefore, IMVHO, totally unlikely. Historically, total collapse has never really happened. More; it has been periods of re-adjustment. We've got poorer for a bit, but then stablised. Moral collapse has been worse for countries than financial collapse - and worse still when both attached together. We are lucky, in that we live in democracies where we still have a bit of moral order. Zimbabwe doesn't have this, hence their collapse. Our farmers will continue to produce food. Our houses will not just collapse. Law and order make take some knocks in some areas, but will essentially remain solid. Look at history. It's all there. In a worst case, some things may get rationed, but we've had that before, in most of our lifetimes, and it came and went, we survived without what anyone sensible would call real hardship. We adjusted. So we just look after what we have got a bit more. OK so we can't change every television set in every room in the house for a few years. Big deal. Look at food supplies - they are plentiful. There IS enough food in the World to feed everyone and more. We've just gotta be sensible with it.

New technologies will help. Waste re-cycling will improve, to provide us with more sustainable fuels. Our dependence on oils will fall as the technological advances move us forward. Solar, Nuclear, Wind and Wave, will all play their part. Whoever said we can't do anything about it? We can. We will. We always do. Cometh the time, cometh the man. Cometh the ideas...

This is a recession, not the end of the World!

How will it effect us as cruisers?

Probably, less than it will effect others. Because we are a resiliant lot, with a high intelligence level (if you exclude me from the average), and we can DO things. We take the challenges of the sea, and we take them head on. We prepare plans, passage plans, we provision, we mend, we network, we help each other, but above all, we just get things done.

We will set course around hazards, or we will resolve them. If we don't let the enormous power of the sea beat us, then no recession will. We can only defeat ourselves with panick. Let's not abandon a perfectly healthy ship with a leak, for the illusory safety of a liferaft. Lets fix the leak.

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by fullafrisky

CASH OUT NOW! I implore you. There will be no recovery until late 2011. ...

Cash Out Now - Please!

Ummmmmmmmmmmmm well.... that great advice: Wall Street US stocks cap best weekly gain since November

LOL

Get your money INTO the stockmarket or you'll be left behind.