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camaraderie · 12-03-2009, 16:46

I am more in line with the thoughts of JTB in thinking that things are going to get awfully bad in the next decade. The beauty of a boat is that you can take off, live very cheaply and pick up anchor and go where there isn't much trouble.

The biggest problem I see with going cruising in the near term (1-5 years) is preserving your net worth so that you can continue to afford it. The debt burdens and spending plans and commitments here (blaming all politicians!) must come home to roost in a huge inflationary period and the value of our $$ savings will fall in terms of their purchasing power. How to avoid that loss is the big question.

There is a reason that Gold and other precious metals are up so much in the last 6 months...but it will be a while before the real inflation kicks in. If we get hyper-inflationary then the barter economy will be important...you skills or commodities that others will want (FOOD, GUNS, AMMO,OIL/GAS) will be the things that retain value.
The last may be overly pessimistic...I certainly hope so...but I think it is always helpful to ask what one would do IF such a scenario developed and perhaps be a bit more prepared than the average guy to take care of myself and my family. Maybe learn how to grow sprouts on board? Or distill seawater?

**Hudson Force** · 12-03-2009, 17:24

Were you worried about Y2K? This time around will be just as bad! You know the people in their homes will be buying groceries and fuel. Those of us cruising will be buying groceries and fuel too! Worry as you will, but you're not going to be any worse off in pursuit of happiness.. Go cruising! 'take care and joy, Aythya crew

Spammy · 12-03-2009, 17:29

I agree with Camaraderie....
My general strategy, in no particular order:
-getting rid of my home. After that, no plans to buy another one in the foreseeable future
-moving from current landlocked location~300mi from the ocean to one 20 min. from ocean. (boat's already on salt water)
-getting rid of needless personal "junk".
-collecting tools, boat spares and equipment, supplies
-investing in a good set of fishing equipment
-getting scuba equipment for repairs, food foraging
-forgetting my 401k, getting out of cash and into gold
-liquidating ALL debt
-buying food preservation equipment (canning, drying, freezing)
-laying in large long-term stocks of food staples (stuff that can be easily preserved, such as rice, dry beans, flour)
-boat needs to be ready to go offshore on short notice at ALL times
-seeds, tools, fishing gear and other small items for barter

Now the dilemma: I have a boat....but it's a Catalina 42 (yeah, I know....). Either I really fix this one up (and I mean REALLY), or simply go ahead and buy a larger, more "offshore" boat. Pro for keeping it includes the fact that I already have it and that selling it would be difficult at this time in view of the economy. Con includes all the stuff you read in this and other forums about Catalinas as "lightly-built coastal boats", and the fact that I could fit more self-sufficiency stuff on a larger boat meant to be a floating home.
Frankly, I am pessimistic about the state of the U.S. economy right now, the future of the Dollar as a currency, and the potential for significant social upheaval if the going gets tough for the average citizen. It's not that I am paranoid in making the above preparations, but I have always felt strongly about preparedness, and now is the first time in my life that it has seemed more important than in the past.

Alexei · 12-03-2009, 17:31

I'm with the "don't sweat it" crowd.

Recessions last a year or two, then things turn around. If the political class continues to do idiotic things and turns the recession into a full-on depression, it'll last longer. But whether it's 2 years or 10 years from now, economic growth will begin again as long as some semblance on freedom remains in the world (and it will).

I think the notion of inflation leading to a barter economy is a bit overstated. There was wicked bad inflation through the 70s, but it didn't come to that. Unless you're talking central Africa-type inflation, it'll be ok. And again, as long as there's even a semblance of freedom left, it won't come to that.

As for climate change and weather, hysterical news reporting aside, no one really knows what the future holds there. As long as there's been a climate on the earth, it has always changed. There have always been bad storms occasionally, too. Whatever.

Oil prices will go up, no doubt about it. Supply and demand. Eventually, the price will get high enough that other forms of energy will become profitable, and someone will develop practical and profitable ways to use them. That's not the case now, political pressure to force the issue not withstanding. But sometime in the future, it will happen. It'll work itself out if we just let it.

In short, stop worrying about these things. Focus on things you can control, not all this silly horse ca-ca.

Cheers,
Alexei

Spammy · 12-03-2009, 17:33

Oh, yeah, and I forgot.....LOTS of SPAM!!!!

**Pblais** · 12-03-2009, 17:58

Quote:

Cruising & the coming storm~recession, depression, climate change, peak oil

OK, we actually have all the answers but we lack all the questions. CF does a pretty good job with old boats and new boats but global issues we don't handle so well. The off topic section is meant to deal with the things that just don't fit but are boating related. We also don't get strict in the Off Topic forum. we may decide that something is too off topic and close it down.

Some times threads like this carry on and sometimes they get shut down. I'm not shutting this one down but more acting to remind you all that there are far better places to talk about these important issues with people that actually know something. It would be nice if we could be everything all the time. My life would be complete and I could share it with everyone I know. We are not it and we never ever got close. We strive to be more about boating but this topic is so far from our grasp that I couldn't resist the comment.

Cruising takes place in the world as it is. You either accept it and deal with it or you come back home where things are more defined. Some place is mad at another place and people usually know who they hate better than they know who their friends are. It's the world as we know it and not as we would like it to be.

As a whole I doubt it will get much better but I also don't think it will get much worse. Real change does not happen based on the evening news. There are still places to go and interesting people to meet. You just don't invite a few billion folks for dinner and expect not to have problems. Cruising means you are only one in a vast population of differences. It's more about you fitting in than others being acceptable to you. If you require more than that it is not a goal you should strive for. It's never been better or easier.

fullafrisky · 12-03-2009, 18:44

I am a small business owner and sailor. I make it my job to watch and predict the future trends in the economy. A year ago my broker told me to hold tight with my investments and that they would come back. I decided, based upon all the information I had digested, to go to all cash and to cash out my other real estate investments other than my home. I was chastised and labeled a nay sayer. I was totally correct. I wish I had had the guts to sell my business interest as well, but that's another chapter.
CASH OUT NOW! I implore you. There will be no recovery until late 2011. It certainly will get much worse between now and then. Remember a year ago when you said "It can't get any worse, it has to get better". It got worse and it is going to get worse. The important word to remember for '09, '10, and early '11 is "RISING"

Rising unemployment, rising interest rates, rising defaults of banks, rising bankruptcies of big multinational corporations, rising food cost, rising gasoline prices (not oil prices, but refining prices) rising global distrust of USA, rising cost of war, rising fundamental Islamic terrorism, rising taxation, and rising racial tensions. Those are only a few. You may scoff and dismiss my statements, but I feel I am correct. I know you may find it hard to believe, but I am, in reality, an optimist. I do feel the USA and the international community will rise from the asses as a Phoenix, but the pain will be severe.

At least our children won't have to worry about inheritance taxes.

Cash Out Now - Please!

MarkJ · 12-03-2009, 18:57

Nicolle and I were recently looking at an Aboriginal site here that said the chanel between these islands and the mainland did not exist 9,000 years ago but was formed by rising sea level.

Well, its 40 meters deep now.

Thats a raise of 4mm per year. Far in excess of the most dire Global Warming predictions.

Since I was a kid I have lived under the threat of being killed by nuclear war, influenza, plague, earthquake, global war, global starvation, tsunami, acid rain and blue-green algy doing the water system in.
Also I wouldn’t be able to drive as fuel was running out in the mid-1970's

And all those who put money under their beds because of the imminent collapse of banking are now broke. Probably living on the Social Security that was meant to run out.

A pessimist can always bring a person down easier and deeper than a happy person can bring someone up. Pessimism is the only killer we have really had since I was a kid.

I will go on going on.

If I'm wrong I will have to use my sails like the rest of us

Mark

**skipmac** · 12-03-2009, 19:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkJ

Since I was a kid I have lived under the threat of being killed by nuclear war, influenza, plague, earthquake, global war, global starvation, tsunami, acid rain and blue-green algy doing the water system in.
Also I wouldn’t be able to drive as fuel was running out in the mid-1970's

And all those who put money under their beds because of the imminent collapse of banking are now broke. Probably living on the Social Security that was meant to run out.

A pessimist can always bring a person down easier and deeper than a happy person can bring someone up. Pessimism is the only killer we have really had since I was a kid.

I will go on going on.

If I'm wrong I will have to use my sails like the rest of us

Mark

Ah the voice of common sense. Remember similar times myself and had friends in the past move to the hills so to speak and stock up on long term food supplies in preparation for the global collapse. They either ended up eating survival food for years or tossing it away after it spoiled and moved back to town to get a job again when civilization didn't end.

Probably the closest our world has come to actual crash was during the sixties when the US and USSR were rattling their respective nuclear sabers. That is behind us and I'll wager that 5 years from now the recession of 2009 will be history (unless the aliens really do invade).

SMcD · 12-03-2009, 19:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtbsail

What are your thoughts on how the Recession/possible depression can play out and how to be more self-sufficient? How is it going to affect the cruising community? How are YOU altering your plans to take all this into account?

Tamara

There is a limit to our world's natural resources, especially oil and gas. As a geologist, I also believe that climate change is a reality (though people may disagree on *why* it's occurring). Some scientists and politicians get pretty grim about our future prospects, but I choose to believe that we can adjust our behavior to meet the challenges and minimize the damage.

As for the recession, it's bad - but we will pull out of it, eventually. Maybe we will even be a better society as a result -more resourceful and more willing to live within our means.

My husband and I would like to start sailing on a long-term basis in five years or so. For whatever reason, all of this bad news has done nothing but motivate us. Maybe it's helped bring into focus what we truly desire to get out of life.

Re: piracy, it is a concern for us, too. We have a small child. I do worry about putting him in harm's way. But then I have to remember that crime can happen anywhere, and more often than not, the people we meet in our travels offer nothing but positive impressions and experiences. We'll just be careful to do our research and, when necessary, travel with other people.

--
Looking for Freedom

MarkJ · 12-03-2009, 20:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMcD

My husband and I would like to start sailing on a long-term basis in five years or so. For whatever reason, all of this bad news has done nothing but motivate us.

Please, you should stay at home. Its all too scary out here.

Really you should allow people like me and others you don't know to distroy your dreams and things you've worked for.

Sounds silly, eh?

Mark

Robertcateran · 12-03-2009, 20:18

Can't see coming out of this recession anytime soon as the imbalance of trade and mess of a financial system will take a bit of time to work through and then will have to contend with adjusting economy to less availability of oil. If we don't tackle CO2 build up we won't have any coral reefs to look at and there would probably be significant increase in ocean dead zones but we will be able to sail through the NW passage.

If everyone simply reduced their hours of working we could all have a nicer life and with fewer goodies to clog it up. I don't see that we have seriously reduced our capacity to produce food, there seems to be a surplus of housing in the US, and I know I have plenty of clothes that I couldn't face throwing out as they only need to replace a button and it was easier to buy another pair at the ridiculously cheap prices. People can eat, have shelter and clothes and can make their own entertainment. Don't really see the financial meltdown as more than a problem of distribution and attitude for the western countries.

If a quarter of the money thrown at the financial crises had been thrown at the CO2 build up problem then we could have turned our energy systems around and not have that to still contend with.

Go sailing and enjoy life and see the coral reefs while you can.

PS I wasn't worried by Y2K but there was a fair bit of work done to update the more vulnerable systems. I am not worried by CO2 build up though I feel I understand the implications. The build up is extraordinary. It is already making a difference to distribution of vegetation (speaking as a plant physiologist) and the acidification will weaken the reef. Google acidification and coral reefs.
The global warming is happening and there is a possibility of some runaway feed back systems such as methane from permafrost.
I am not worried as I figure people are part of the planet and this is another phase in its history. I am not particularly worried as my children and grand children are Australian and it is a pretty good country to live in and I find it hard to worry about another few generations in the future.
There is a sense of loss with the extinction of so many species and the ugliness of relentless 'development'

MarkJ · 12-03-2009, 20:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robertcateran

Go sailing and enjoy life and see the coral reefs while you can.

Thats what they said in the 1970's when the Great Barrier Reef was being 'destroyed' by the Crown Of Thorns Starfish. The reef was meant to be all dead before 1980. Now do a Google search and you'll see : "Crown-of-thorns sea star are magnificent animals" Magnificent? Killers of a coupla decades ago!

There is not one example of things going backwards for more than a short amount of time.

"will take a bit of time to work through and then will have to contend with adjusting... "

Who? Who has to contend with this? Who has to work through? Not us because we have nothing to do with it... our only position in it is media consumers and salary workers, and of course, cruisers...

No matter the worlds perceived problems I implore you to not waiver from your dreams of going cruising

So endeth the soapbox

Mark

Pelagic · 12-03-2009, 21:02

What I find interesting in this kind of thread is the common desire to have (or regain) some kind of control during these very uncertain times.

Some of us have early on made very basic choices about our priorities in life and have managed to avoid the pitfalls of buying into a debtors economics.

I attribute that to my early study of works like Marshall McLuhen’s…”The Medium is the Message” and Skinner’s Box studies of overpopulation in rats.

This led me to believe in my 20’s that you can not have one foot on land (playing the socially parasitic stock market and real estate games) while keeping the other centered on living in a free, yet unregulated and sometimes hostile marine environment.

Eventually conditions will conspire to tear you apart and force a painful change, so much to the initial disappointment of my parents ...I made that philosophical change early on to be very true to my need for freedom and never looked back.

For those struggling with coming to terms over what seems like a very selfish decision I suggest you consider this:

http://www.nationalforum.com/Electro...%20Selfish.pdf

Concluding Remarks
In conclusion, being selfish is the only avenue for a man to take in order to live a productive and successful life. Each individual is responsible for finding joy and making decisions in sharing that joy with others. No one is obligated to be his brother’s keeper. Ayn Rand’s philosophy of Objectivism gives the framework for a man to survive in today’s civilization. In the end, production is good for the whole. All men should be selfish in order to achieve a fulfilling life this is right and good.