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Old 27-06-2007, 11:43   #211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tspringer
We need monumental scale atmospheric processing plants or such....

Terry
Sounds like a Social Jobs Program to me....
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Old 27-06-2007, 11:56   #212
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Ever notice that the less solid our data is, the more aggressively we defend our position.

Hard to get an argument going about the BEST way to spend our time (sailing), but mention the BEST anchor or Teak finish and the gloves soon come off.

The amount of heat in some of these replies suggest the data needed to draw a firm conclusion is not yet in.

But it does make for an interesting thread...

John
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Old 27-06-2007, 12:54   #213
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Originally Posted by camaraderie
Trim... I simply used wiki cause it was convenient to make the point that water vapor does NOT cause 90% of warming which you stated and that there was room for bovine flatulence in the equation! (G)...
Anyway the SOURCES for that wiki quote are:
  1. ^ Kiehl, J. T.; Kevin E. Trenberth (February 1997). "Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget" (PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (2): 197-208. Retrieved on 2006-05-01.
  2. ^ Water vapour: feedback or forcing?. RealClimate (6 Apr 2005). Retrieved on 2006-05-01.
I think those would be considered "scientific"... nevertheless feel free to dissect them as you please.
I personally do not believe in man-made gobal warming but do think it is possible that we are in a natural warming cycle.
I do not consider CO2 to be a pollutant or a factor in warming as everything I have read says that increases in CO2 FOLLOW warming rather than cause it. I'm not sure from your responses whether you agree with me on that or not...but I think so!
I agree, however I still believe carbon dioxide emissions will eventually (in the next 10 years) cause catastrophic failure of existing shallow water biological environments. And this should be particularly concerning for us sailors. The Globe will warm with or without our help...nothing we can do about it.
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Old 27-06-2007, 14:01   #214
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Originally Posted by Trim50
Sounds like a Social Jobs Program to me....

Pretty much.

But then again, perhaps it would yield something better than all the other absurd working welfare programs we have today such as TSA, DEA, ATF....



Terry
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Old 27-06-2007, 14:37   #215
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06.25.2007 Sun's Shifts May Cause Global Warming

His studies show that natural variations in the sun plays a major role in global warming. So are humans off the hook? And if so, why does he use compact fluorescent lightbulbs?



by Marion Long
Most leading climate experts don’t agree with Henrik Svensmark, the 49-year-old director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen. In fact, he has taken a lot of blows for proposing that solar activity and cosmic rays are instrumental in determining the warming (and cooling) of Earth. His studies show that cosmic rays trigger cloud formation, suggesting that a high level of solar activity—which suppresses the flow of cosmic rays striking the atmosphere—could result in fewer clouds and a warmer planet. This, Svensmark contends, could account for most of the warming during the last century. Does this mean that carbon dioxide is less important than we’ve been led to believe? Yes, he says, but how much less is impossible to know because climate models are so limited.
There is probably no greater scientific heresy today than questioning the warming role of CO2, especially in the wake of the report issued by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). That report warned that nations must cut back on greenhouse gas emissions, and insisted that “unless drastic action is taken . . . millions of poor people will suffer from hunger, thirst, floods, and disease.” As astrophysicist ?Eugene Parker, the discoverer of solar wind, writes in the foreword to Svensmark’s new book, The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate Change, “Global warming has become a political issue both in government and in the scientific community. The scientific lines have been drawn by ‘eminent’ scientists, and an important new idea is an unwelcome intruder. It upsets the established orthodoxy.”
We talked with the unexpectedly modest and soft-spoken Henrik Svensmark about his work, the criticism it has received, and truth versus hype in climate science.

Sun's Shifts May Cause Global Warming | Environment | DISCOVER Magazine
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Old 27-06-2007, 17:29   #216
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Interesting thread. A lot of you guys dig back millions of years in history and claim that such global warming is happening naturally. True. It also happen naturally that the carbon dioxide is getting removed again . Trees etc.
However it is the first time that we release the Co2 which was buried for hundreds of millions of years (oil + coal) from a time when the atmosphere had a much higher Co2 level. Back than even the Antarctica was a green forest absorbing the gas


This time there will be no trees to take it out.

There is only 2 miles of breathable air above us so it is a very thin layer.

I recently read that in the US in some areas the rain reached a PH level as low as 1.9 . Well guys ever wondered why your Gelcoat is so dull?
Looks like we can use the rain as Teak cleaner soon.
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Old 27-06-2007, 18:19   #217
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Originally Posted by zardinuk
One word...



Waterworld.
Another word...

Impossible
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Old 27-06-2007, 22:56   #218
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Originally Posted by zardinuk
Actually, I did take pol sci 101, even though it had nothing to do with my major (Economics). Yes, a dirty game it is.

As for fiscal/monetary strategy and the currency system, I think people too often make the mistake of comparing national debt to what they know about personal debt. The national debt never needs to repaid. Personal debt does, because eventually you die and you want to have a little (+) before you die, but not true for the country. If you have a surplus, it means your money is likely being invested in other countries, but yet the United States has always been a great place to invest your money, our stock market is among the best. We do good things with foreign money in this country, if it weren't so, then we wouldn't have the level of investment that we do.

The world bank (which the United States has the biggest say in) has suggested that the United States devalue their currency, we have total control over the value of our currency, why do we devalue it? The effects of devaluation: less Americans buy foreign goods, more foreigners buy American goods, manufacturing increases. There are other secondary effects, some of which may not be beneficial. So it is a matter of balance.
I note your tender years in your public profile, zardinuk, so I don't want to seem overly harsh, but if this is an example of what you learned by majoring in economics, your parents should demand a full refund from whichever correspondence school sold them your degree.

Now, I'm fully aware that 99% of the college graduates in this country leave school having only learned to parrot the nonsense they're force-fed by their professors, but when I read such drivel from an educated American, I tremble for the Republic. It's this kind of "thinking" that has taken the world's greatest creditor nation, and turned it into the world's greatest debtor nation.

The United States has been teetering on the brink of economic collapse for the last thirty-plus years, and its economic fate now lies in the hands of hostile foreign governments with huge current account surpluses, until now invested in US government debt. If/when they cease to prop up the American dollar by buying US Treasury bonds, you will quickly learn that it is the market that will devalue the American dollar, and that we do not have "total control over the value of our currency," (except that by abandoning even a fig leaf of a gold standard, we have guaranteed it will ultimately return to the real value of all fiat currencies in world history - zero!)

The American dollar has lost more than 80.5% of its value since the Nixon administration severed the last, tenuous, ties to gold in 1971, and that's by the reckoning of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Many believe that if the bureaucrats there were not "massaging" the statistics to keep an accurate picture of the true state of the American economy from emerging, the actual loss of purchasing power would be revealed to be even worse.

When I was married, my father-in-law owned an engineering company in Los Angeles that consulted on flood control and other water issues with some of the richest development companies in the western US, as well as the various government entities with whom those developers had to deal. He hired a brilliant woman onto his staff whose field of expertise was environmental analysis and mitigation of any potentially adverse environmental impacts of development. My then-wife and I were talking to her one day as the tax filing deadline was fast-approaching, and we mentioned that our CPA was running behind and hadn't gotten our returns back to us yet. We asked her if the accountant she and her husband used was similarly backed up.

She acknowledged that they hadn't filed yet either, but that they didn't have an accountant, and would never even think of using one. We were incredulous. "Why not," we wanted to know. She proudly said that her husband did their taxes. My wife asked her if he was an accountant himself, or had some background in tax preparation. No, she said, but he was confident that it was simple to do - he was, after all, a professor of economics at UCLA.

We still get a laugh out of that whenever it comes up.

TaoJones
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Old 27-06-2007, 23:43   #219
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"I note your tender years in your public profile, zardinuk, so I don't want to seem overly harsh, but if this is an example of what you learned by majoring in economics, your parents should demand a full refund from whichever correspondence school sold them your degree. "

I think drawing the "I'm Old, therefore smarter" card is a weak play.

We have been wringing our hands about the US downfall since the hippy's took over the sixties.

My econ professor put it this way, "If the rest of the world wants to finance our extravagant and consumptive lifestyle, who are we to stop them?" - My econ professor was ancient.

They are all too heavily invested to pull out. They might like to but much as credit has been a drug fueling our headaches, a unimaginably huge, stable, open market has been the world's drug.

As soon as one pulled out they'd get their ass kicked by the rest and one of the rest would prop us back up.

Yes the debt is high but as a percent of GNP I am still not alarmed. We will continue to grow. We have all but limitless natural resources and space and we will fuel the growth the same way we always do. We will allow the world's best, brightest and hungriest to immigrate.
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Old 28-06-2007, 00:18   #220
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ex-Calif
My econ professor put it this way, "If the rest of the world wants to finance our extravagant and consumptive lifestyle, who are we to stop them?"
Did you, or anyone else in your economics class, have the testicular fortitude to stand up and ask, "But if the rest of the world no longer wants to finance our extravagant and consumptive lifestyle, how are we going to make them?"
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ex-Calif
Yes the debt is high but as a percent of GNP I am still not alarmed. We will continue to grow. We have all but limitless natural resources and space and we will fuel the growth the same way we always do. We will allow the world's best, brightest and hungriest to immigrate.
I'm not sure who you mean by "we," inasmuch as you sign yourself Ex-Calif and live in Singapore. Assuming you mean "we Americans," I would caution you that continued growth is not assured, "limitless natural resources and space" is oxymoronic, and "the world's best, brightest and hungriest" will indeed migrate to where the market for their services is most bullish - that just won't be the United States, a country so hostile to immigrants that it's building a wall to keep them out.

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Old 28-06-2007, 01:43   #221
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I agree that playing the "i am older therefore smarter" argument is pretty weak, and I am a offended that you would even bring up my age, and then insult my intelligence. It was requested that nobody make personal attacks, but I think this constitutes a personal attack.

As for global warming, I am going out boating this weekend to appreciate the global warming.
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Old 28-06-2007, 03:30   #222
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Originally Posted by zardinuk
As for global warming, I am going out boating this weekend to appreciate the global warming.


Looking on the bright side of the issue, barring any unforeseen events disrupting world trade, the presently living generations will most likely experience the greatest economic expansion of trade and prosperity the world has ever witnessed…much of which will be due to global warming.

Sushi however, will be exceedingly expensive. So, circumnavigate while you can.
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Old 28-06-2007, 05:57   #223
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"I am a offended that you would even bring up my age, and then insult my intelligence. It was requested that nobody make personal attacks, but I think this constitutes a personal attack.

Sincere apologies regarding your advancing years but you brought up the age subject.

""But if the rest of the world no longer wants to finance our extravagant and consumptive lifestyle, how are we going to make them?"

But see that's the point. They are in the sinking boat with us. They have to stay and they have to bail when the time comes.

In regards to living in Singapore and being American. Uncle Sam's arms are very long. I pay lot's of taxes for schools and roads I don't use and am happy to do so. Oh, and I directly contribute to a positive balance of trade, since leaving the US I am debt free and have a really green footprint - LOL
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Old 28-06-2007, 07:40   #224
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Is it now politically incorrect to note that age and experience do so often yield wisdom? The market certainly does not agree... thats why new college graduates do not earn more than guys with 20 years experience in field. But it is pretty common for the new college grad to assume he does understand everything perfectly.

It is also very common to assume that since the US has been the worlds leading economic power for the past 70 years or so that this will continue indefinitely. The general consensus is that the US is exempt from certain economic laws simply because we choose to be.

Never mind that the decreasing value of the US dollar is leading to rampant inflation in many foreign nations resulting in decreased demand for US dollars and decreasing participation in the purchase of US debt. Note for example the decline in indirect competitive bids at US Treasury debt auctions (the best measure of foreign central bank participation). Also note that the Chinese have begun to move out of dollars on an increasing basis and other nations are untying their own currencies from the dollar. Kuwait did so last week citing the dollars decreasing value and the resulting inflation in Kuwait as beyond its ability to tolerate.

The US has for decades been basically pursueing a foreign trade position whereby we swap funny little pieces of colored paper for real, solid, tangible goods. Those selling these goods are left holding this paper and they largely choose to invest it in safe, dollar denominated assets primarily US Treasury debt. But with the dollar devalueing they are losing money. With the ever increasing current account deficit and looming massive Federal spending shortfalls it is obvious that the amount of new US Treasury debt to be absorbed is going to explode.

It is also obvious to anyone who bothers to dig into it that the US Govt. currently lies about the state of its financing. By playing accounting games that would make an Enron CFO blush (not to mention land him in jail), the US Govt. assigns its largest liabilities as "off budget" and thus their shortfalls in funding do not get counted in the official budget figures. Last year the official deficit was under $300 billion. When the same accounting rules you or I have to follow are applied however, the actual deficit was over $1.2 Trillion. It paints a rosy picture when by making up your own accounting rules as you go along you get to exclude your largest expenditures from your P/L figures!

Funding shortfalls in just Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid over the next 40 years are projected to exceed the entire current specie of the US. That means the shortfalls to fund just those programs exceed the value of EVERYTHING in the US today. All stocks... all bonds.... all real estate... all investments... all property of any kind.

So my question to the "The US will always dominate" crowd is very simple: Where will the money come from?

There is of course only one viable answer: At some point the US Treasury Dept's need to borrow will exceed the entire planets ability to lend. At that point they will conduct a Treasury debt auction and the bids will not be enough to cover the issuance. Rather than announce that the US Govt. was no longer able to raise funds to continue funding Govt. operations, the Federal Reserve will begin stepping in at Treasury auctions and purchasing US debt directly. This is in effect printing money and the monetizing of the US debt will have begun in earnest.

What happens then? I suggest some reading on the Weimar Republic.



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Old 28-06-2007, 09:10   #225
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Ok, so we buy $20 shoes from China for $5. Some would call that a trade "deficit," but where is the deficit really? Then China has our $5 and needs to do something with it. The only two things that one can do with US dollars is buy US goods or buy US treasuries. (Or exchange them based on their ability to do these two things).

So then we get the $20 shoes for $5, and then China gives us back the $5 as a "loan" for the cheapest possible interest rate imaginable. I suspect that no one here has a mortgage as cheap as China is willing to loan money to the US.

Now, there is no "calling in the debt," so please don't ask what happens if China decides to "call in the debt." Treasury notes mature when they mature.

But, you say, what if China decides to no longer buy our Treasuries? Then basically, for the $20 shoes they get paper. Remember, they must either buy US goods or securities with that paper that we gave them.

But, you say, what if China decides decides to no longer sell us the shoes? Then they "go out of business," and we buy them from someone else.
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