Climate Change

[SailOar]

Climate Change is a topic that affects boaters, at least indirectly. There have been at least a few other threads on this topic on CF, but they have been closed -- not due to lack of interest, but because posters were getting snarky with each other.

I'd request that this thread be used to discuss the science of Climate Change, the consequences of Climate Change, as well as possible ways to adapt or mitigate its effects.

While questions are welcomed, in the interest of forum harmony it would be very nice if un-referenced dogmatic opinions be kept on your side of the keyboard.

[SailOar]

State of the Climate in 2012: Highlights | NOAA

Worldwide, 2012 was among the 10 warmest years on record according to the 2012 State of the Climate report released online today by the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The peer-reviewed report, with scientists from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC serving as lead editors, was compiled by 384 scientists from 52 countries. It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments on land, sea, ice, and sky...

• Warm temperature trends continue near Earth’s surface: Four major independent datasets show 2012 was among the 10 warmest years on record, ranking either 8th or 9th, depending upon the dataset used. The United States and Argentina had their warmest year on record.
• La Niña dissipates into neutral conditions: A weak La Niña dissipated during spring 2012 and, for the first time in several years, neither El Niño nor La Niña, which can dominate regional weather and climate conditions around the globe, prevailed for the majority of the year.
• The Arctic continues to warm; sea ice extent reaches record low: The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June each reached new record lows. Arctic sea ice minimum extent (1.32 million square miles, September 16) was the lowest of the satellite era. This is 18 percent lower than the previous record low extent of 1.61 million square miles that occurred in 2007 and 54 percent lower than the record high minimum ice extent of 2.90 million square miles that occurred in 1980. The temperature of permafrost, or permanently frozen land, reached record-high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred July 11–12 on the Greenland ice sheet when 97 percent of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt this time of year.
• Antarctica sea ice extent reaches record high: The Antarctic maximum sea ice extent reached a record high of 7.51 million square miles on September 26. This is 0.5 percent higher than the previous record high extent of 7.47 million square miles that occurred in 2006 and seven percent higher than the record low maximum sea ice extent of 6.96 million square miles that occurred in 1986.
• Sea surface temperatures increase: Four independent datasets indicate that the globally averaged sea surface temperature for 2012 was among the 11 warmest on record. After a 30-year period from 1970 to 1999 of rising global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000–2012 exhibited little trend. Part of this difference is linked to the prevalence of La Niña-like conditions during the 21st century, which typically lead to lower global sea surface temperatures.
• Ocean heat content remains near record levels: Heat content in the upper 2,300 feet, or a little less than one-half mile, of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Overall increases from 2011 to 2012 occurred between depths of 2,300 to 6,600 feet and even in the deep ocean.
• Sea level reaches record high: Following sharp decreases in global sea level in the first half of 2011 that were linked to the effects of La Niña, sea levels rebounded to reach record highs in 2012. Globally, sea level has been increasing at an average rate of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm per year over the past two decades.
• Ocean salinity trends continue: Continuing a trend that began in 2004, oceans were saltier than average in areas of high evaporation, including the central tropical North Pacific, and fresher than average in areas of high precipitation, including the north central Indian Ocean, suggesting that precipitation is increasing in already rainy areas and evaporation is intensifying in drier locations.
• Tropical cyclones near average: Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms, compared with the 1981–2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity.
• Greenhouse gases climb: Major greenhouse gas concentrations, including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, continued to rise during 2012. Following a slight decline in manmade emissions associated with the global economic downturn, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record high in 2011 of 9.5 ± 0.5 petagrams (1,000,000,000,000,000 grams) of carbon, and a new record of 9.7 ± 0.5 petagrams of carbon is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, reaching a global average of 392.6 ppm for the year. In spring 2012, for the first time, the atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at several Arctic observational sites.
• Cool temperature trends continue in Earth’s lower stratosphere: The average lower stratospheric temperature, about six to ten miles above the Earth’s surface, for 2012 was record to near-record cold, depending on the dataset. Increasing greenhouse gases and decline of stratospheric ozone tend to cool the stratosphere while warming the planet near-surface layers.

...The full report can be viewed by visiting BAMS State of the Climate | - 2012.

[Anzo]

Ok, lessee, here. If the consensus is correct, which seems dubious and unsetttled at best due to lack of historical comparisons, : more water, higher shorelines, warmer cruising climes. You can adapt, but anyone's political, dogmatic resistance is futile. I likely won't be doing much sailing in the Alps or Himalayas, so strictly as a sailor, it just doesn't seem all that terrible, especially since there's absolutely no way of knowing if spending 100s of billions of $s will making a bleeding bit of difference.
BTW, where would anyone get a referenced dogmatic opinion?

[JPA Cate]

where would anyone get a referenced dogmatic opinion?


Try the Periodical Index at the local library, under "climate change."

Ann

[toddedger]

Newer satellites will soon prove that the changing output of the sun drives climate change. I'm not sure if the guys making their living studying it will let the info out to the public though. Someone might hack their email and spill it, but the question is will anybody pay attention to the science.

[conachair]

This being the internet, most people make up their mind then grab any info they can find to back it up instead of the other way round.

[capngeo]

I guess it depends on which anchor is used.... or what gun.....

Keep it civil guys...

[boatman61]

Its feasible... Could be that is all down to us treating our 'Council House' like sh*t coz sooner or later the 'Landlord' will come along and put things right.....but with the latest scientific claim that the Sun is about to flip its magnetic poles...

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by SailOar

While questions are welcomed, in the interest of forum harmony it would be very nice if un-referenced dogmatic opinions be kept on your side of the keyboard.

Welcome to the posting world! Your first post after 2 years of being a member.

[Ocean Girl]

SailOar, good on ya for starting this.

Chasing Ice OFFICIAL TRAILER - YouTube

[bobofthenorth]

I'm not smart enough to assess the science but on the off chance that there's some validity to the theory that the world is getting warmer, I'm looking forward to an easier passage to the east side of North America. I am an AGW skeptic and I'm still not convinced that any real warming trend is happening but if it is I plan to make lemonade. The reality is that even the most diehard AGW believer will have to agree that individually there is very little we can do other than adapt so I plan to adapt to a northern passage. But I'm not holding my breath.

[barnakiel]

If you equal climate change with anthropogenic global warming (or lack of thereof) then there is no space for the type of discussion you asked for. Old threads got locked and rightly so.

Otherwise, the climate changes, and very rightly so, as nobody ever said it was something permanent or fixed. By definition, climate changes. And it looks like we are in the cycle when some areas of our planet are becoming hotter and drier while others are becoming colder and wetter.

Then, there are some welcome and some unwelcome consequences of the fact. Like we are supposed to get more hurricanes (somehow this is not the case in any of the seasons past 2005) but on the other hand we can sail the North-West passage in a Bavaria.

b.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by conachair

This being the internet, most people make up their mind then grab any info they can find to back it up instead of the other way round.

Regrettable but true.

[Lucky Larry]

Originally Posted by SailOar

Climate Change is a topic that affects boaters, at least indirectly. There have been at least a few other threads on this topic on CF, but they have been closed -- not due to lack of interest, but because posters were getting snarky with each other.

I'd request that this thread be used to discuss the science of Climate Change, the consequences of Climate Change, as well as possible ways to adapt or mitigate its effects.

While questions are welcomed, in the interest of forum harmony it would be very nice if un-referenced dogmatic opinions be kept on your side of the keyboard.

A lot of people, myself included, are convinced that the phrase "science of climate change" is an un-referenced dogmatic opinion.

[Krogensailor]

It boggles the mind that 90+% of the science community has zero doubt that we are not in a 'normal' cycle. The source of the changes we are witnessing are directly linked to human behavior. The OPs request, "I'd request that this thread be used to discuss the science of Climate Change, the consequences of Climate Change, as well as possible ways to adapt or mitigate its effects.", pretty clear request that we might have a conversation about the effects and what we might personally do with regard to the obvious change afoot. I don't think Katrina and Sandy are indirect effect's. I think we will be very much effected by climate change. To the point that being on the water may not be such a good idea. I'm still getting my boat ready, but that thought is in the back of my mind. We can contribute to the solution by using out sailboats as sailboats. Minimizing engine time. There are hundreds of things an individual can do to be part of the solution and not part of the problem. Google. Will that change the tide? Individually, probably not, but collectively, absolutely. We started down the right track in the mid 70's but then fell back to sleep. Well the alarm has gone off. Rise and shine. We are out of time. So if you don't want to be part of a sincere discussion, than don't be. But please allow others to have their space to speak about their concerns and thoughts. Think of the character building that could result from the non act of resisting. Don't say nothing for the sake of saying something.