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Old 17-11-2007, 13:53   #1
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biggest slowdown in almost 20 years ?

I read this today: Are things this bad in the boat industry?

Marine industry taken off guard?

"............The problem with this latest downturn is that it came upon us so slowly that it caught a lot of people, including the marine industry, off guard. Perhaps there were some early warning signs it was coming, but because it wasn’t a crisis there was no immediate need for action.
Now the downturn is upon us – some are saying the marine industry is suffering from the biggest slowdown in almost 20 years – and people are wondering how we got here. It’s like a drought that takes years to develop; by the time you realize there’s a crisis it’s almost too late to do anything about it......"

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Trade Talk » Blog Archive » Marine industry taken off guard?
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Old 17-11-2007, 15:03   #2
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To me it was pretty simple to see.
Boating follows housing.
Always has.
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Old 17-11-2007, 17:25   #3
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Not surprising. With the junk mortgage market bursting and the stock market plunging--and still very shaky--the market for all luxury goods especially the big ticket ones, will be tanking.

Which is another reason why looking at historical prices for used boats is a very uncertain way to determine value, you need to account for where the economy was in any given year and "add salt" to read what the sale prices really meant.

"Perhaps there were some early warning signs it was coming," Only if someone was astute enough to be saying "Ya know, sooner or later all these foreclosures are gonna add up to a market crash." And doubtless SOME of the pros were.
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Old 17-11-2007, 17:51   #4
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Boats are luxury items. Any economic downturn kills luxury item manufacturers. This twenty year thing sounds like an exaggeration though.
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Old 20-11-2007, 00:57   #5
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This is only the beginning. I'm not sure that we will see any light in the economy at least until mid 2009. We have been through hard times before in the 80's and 90's. Seems we never learn our lessons but I will not get political on this one. Suffice it to say, it is an excellent time to weigh anchor and cruise until the winds change...so to speak.
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Old 20-11-2007, 16:38   #6
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I have been told that there has not been a down market in any presidential election year.
I think it is true.
I also cannot decide if next year will be the first one to occur.
Tough choice for me.
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Old 20-11-2007, 17:36   #7
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I promised not to be political....but. We were in a recession when Clinton took office from Bush Sr.
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Old 20-11-2007, 19:03   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Celestialsailor View Post
We were in a recession when Clinton took office from Bush Sr.

Yes we were - and remember the luxury tax on boats that just killed the industry? Hard to imagine it could get worse than that...
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Old 20-11-2007, 22:06   #9
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There's a lot of uncertainy about this downturn. There seem to be two groups of experts. One says everything is going just fine and the other says we are in for a rough couple of years.

From my professional standpoint, what's going on in the financial markets is unprecedented. I'm not sure what's coming, but I have a feeling I'm not going to like it.
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Old 21-11-2007, 00:11   #10
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Just remember. A recession becomes a depression when "you" lose "your" job - LOL.
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Old 21-11-2007, 00:55   #11
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Just remember. A recession becomes a depression when "you" lose "your" job - LOL.
Well...The best solution for depression is to weigh anchor and go sailing!
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Old 21-11-2007, 11:00   #12
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There's a lot of uncertainy about this downturn. There seem to be two groups of experts. One says everything is going just fine and the other says we are in for a rough couple of years.

From my professional standpoint, what's going on in the financial markets is unprecedented. I'm not sure what's coming, but I have a feeling I'm not going to like it.
Agreed. See the thread about "Value of the Dollar".

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Old 21-11-2007, 11:15   #13
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Originally Posted by Celestialsailor View Post
I promised not to be political....but. We were in a recession when Clinton took office from Bush Sr.
So many factors other than the Presidency determine the state of an economy that to blame or credit a President for the state of an economy is ridiculous. Congress if anything is to accept the blame or credit...they are the ones who decide how much and what is to be taxed and how the money is to be spent. All in all though....both are relatively minor in the big picture, especially now that the worlds economies are tied to each other.
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Old 21-11-2007, 12:35   #14
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Originally Posted by rickm505 View Post
There's a lot of uncertainy about this downturn. There seem to be two groups of experts. One says everything is going just fine and the other says we are in for a rough couple of years.

From my professional standpoint, what's going on in the financial markets is unprecedented. I'm not sure what's coming, but I have a feeling I'm not going to like it.

Agreed. The Wall St is in a state of "fluctuation" and has not decided on an advance or decline. I would disagree that we haven't seen this type of market in the past, though.

The only thing that seems unprecedented is the falling dollar in combination with the stagnant stock market in combination with the lending problems in combination with global trade in combination with energy costs. ha ha ha

Seriously... that's what's unprecedented. Most of these things have happned one or another at a time, but this time they're all coming at us at once.

Makes a tough call right this second on what to do with your investment $$. I've been working on that issue all day. It's a nasty one.

We've got a few financial experts on here. I sure would love to hear their takes just to see if I'm heading in the right direction with where to park my funds until the market declines and I can buy some cheap stocks. Any tips out there?

PS: Presidents are puppets/figureheads these days. They have very little to do with anything, but put a public face on the "administration" and what groups are in power/favor.
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Old 21-11-2007, 12:44   #15
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heck if the number of boats on the used boats market increases and the number of new un sold new boats increases and all of this would pushes price down it would be a good thing for people looking to buy and might help off set the loss of value in the dollar.
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