Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

[thinwater]

... and given the discord here and elsewhere, I think a reasonable person with no political leanings would predict that we basically will not. We face a range of possible futures, dependent on what changes we can make, future energy tech, and the validity of models. No point in debating over my head. The horse has been flogged and will be further flogged by the next generation.

What can we do?

Sea level rise. A few important cities will be cheaper to protect than move. Manhattan come to mind. But smaller cities can learn to move back. My understanding (possibly very wrong) is that NOLA has elected not to rebuild in certain areas. Some coastal towns will be lost. But this is not something that will happen in 20 years, and when a structure needs rebuilt, local governments must be strong enough to say "we will not be offering building permits in these areas." Resort areas (globally of no real importance compared to lives) can do what they please, but with no expectation of government relief under any circumstances (other than evacuation).

In the 3rd world this is more troublesome, but there is no changing it. People will move.

Farming. Shift in rain patterns and lengthening growing season will redistribute food. Unfortunately, the countries that will be short on food will not be able to buy it. Northern countries will start running a surplus. Again, the people must move to where the food is.

I'm not suggesting this is stress-free. I think it may be pretty horrible. But didn't civilization always follow resources? I also believe we will get better at farming. The possibilities of synthetic foods and more intense agriculture are impossible to predict. But I don't think those technologies are going to help poor countries much. I could be dead wrong.

So assuming we can still breath the air (I think we will), how do we get the people where the food is without war and starvation? Or do we build walls and hope population stabilizes before something blows. We already know that a graying population makes retirement finance crazy. Some hybrid? Probably. I don't see gloom and doom, but I do see gradual but sweeping changes. I am also pretty sure we need to maintain economic growth to have any hope of paying for all of it.

[barnakiel]

I believe, regardless of whether there is any change or not, regardless of why any changes happen when they happen, regardless of our religious, political or vested leanings:

We can attempt to sail, to cruise in a greener way: use less energy, mostly: do NOT fly home (US) when you are cruising the Pacific or Europe, do NOT equip your boat with air-con (while you can simply open the hatches), do NOT create wash and noise going at 15 knots in your rib while you could learn rowing and go ashore paddling, sailing, etc.

We can also NOT dump grey water while in marinas (that's why shower, toilet facilities and launderettes are there), we can NOT pump our bilges while anchored in that pretty anchorage, etc.

Alas, given the irrelevance of the cruising and sailing crowd to the tax collecting system, I can see the governments stepping in and setting relevant charges and fines. Sure.

And taxes, charges and fines are the only way to "ask" anybody to do anything green.

Hence expect zero results from the crowd.

But we are having fun talking, aren't we.

b.

[Terra Nova]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

...taxes, charges and fines are the only way to...

...legally fleece the public.

[senormechanico]

Agg, here we go again.



I already do the above things and have all my life.
My house has no air conditioning, I don't buy bottled water etc.
But PLEASE ! Don't we already have too many of these "global warming/cooling/climate change" threads?

[sailorchic34]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

do NOT create wash and noise going at 15 knots in your rib while you could learn rowing and go ashore paddling, sailing, etc.

We can also NOT dump grey water while in marinas (that's why shower, toilet facilities and launderettes are there), we can NOT pump our bilges while anchored in that pretty anchorage, etc.

And taxes, charges and fines are the only way to "ask" anybody to do anything green.
.

Just a few comments:

You could use an electric motor on the dinghy charged by wind or solar. rowing is not the only answer.

Grey water. So the grey water from homes goes to the treatment plant where it's treated by adding chlorine to kill bacteria and then dumped in the rivers, streams and bays. I for one don't see grey water being a big climate change issue or even a major water quality issue. Black water is of course a different thingy.

Gee I was riding a bicycle to work in the 70's and 80's, just because I liked it. Same with solar hot water. No tax required.

Luckily the world is getting Greener, slowing but surely. With more solar and wind farms coming on line every year, people recycling, etc. Even liveaboards have a smaller carbon foot print just by the nature of the beast.

[hpeer]

I follow CC fairly closely, it seems that the evidence is that there is at least 2C baked in if we stopped today. 6C is starting to sound more likely, as a minimum.

What can we do? At this point trying to do something is like standing on the shore and trying to calm the ocean. I don't like that, but it seems to be what it is.

We can prepare ourselves and our children to try to survive the bottleneck.

And hope for good luck.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by sailorchic34

Just a few comments:

You could use an electric motor on the dinghy charged by wind or solar. rowing is not the only answer.

Grey water. So the grey water from homes goes to the treatment plant where it's treated by adding chlorine to kill bacteria and then dumped in the rivers, streams and bays. I for one don't see grey water being a big climate change issue or even a major water quality issue. Black water is of course a different thingy.

Gee I was riding a bicycle to work in the 70's and 80's, just because I liked it. Same with solar hot water. No tax required.

Luckily the world is getting Greener, slowing but surely. With more solar and wind farms coming on line every year, people recycling, etc. Even liveaboards have a smaller carbon foot print just by the nature of the beast.

I will softly disagree on some points. I will agree on others.

I do not see ELECTRIC ANYTHINGS (e.g outboards) as the way to go. Are we chrome? Are we lame? Or, put simply: we cannot row (we never learned, why learn anything if we can use the outboard). Etc.

To use the electric outboard you need to charge the battery (mostly lead or lithium + plastic casing; both lead and lithium are dug out from the land (=deforestation, ground water loss, contamination, landscape devastation, etc) and too often at the end of their life they all end up on a dump pile.

Given the energy density / and current wind and solar boat installations, it may in fact be greener if we simply start the diesel generator (its body is metal and can be 100% recycled).

Solar and wind are not in fact much greener than diesel once you allow for the damage done mining for aluminum, lithium, lead and for the damage done to nature in China/India (or Bangladesh) due to our moving of our production there and to utter lack of environment protection laws / or and / their implementation (as well as many other first world laws) in China, India and wherever the rich of the s.c. first world moved the production in search of higher margins / returns.

Atom is the way. But few boats have nuclear plants onboard, and those who do not, would do GREEN if they asked their crews to row, sail, and/or drift otherwise ;-)

GREY WATER in marinas: OK, you have a valid argument here.

City facilities vary from country to country. They are in fact pretty good in some places (UK, Sweden, NZ, to name a few) to next to non-existent in other places (e.g. Spain, Brazil, Panama, to name a few). What I am talking about, however, is not the fact that there is a clear cut policing gap between the above areas. What I am talking about is people coming from the s.c. first world countries and doing as the locals do in the s.c. another dimension countries. Should members of the Elysium be free to pollute District 9? I have seen this again and again all the super maxi yachts and expensive EU cruisers never dumping anything in Germany but emptying their showers and bilges and toilets right into the marina as soon as they get away from the watchful eye of their own local policeman. Too sad. Only because they know they will not get punished. Only because they do not, internally, care.

Hence my observation that nothing can be done where no sufficient laws and penalties exist.

;-(

b.

[Zai]

I thought this was the reason we all buy boat???

To hedge sea level rising!!!

[conachair]

Originally Posted by thinwater

What can we do?

Whatever makes us go to sleep happy..

As for the big brain monkey species we call humans, it really doesn't look like there is any more conscious control over the direction at a species level long term than there is by a bunch of bacteria in a petri dish.

Just selfish genes doing what they do best - replicating.

Though at a personal level, not being too much a part of trashing the planet and helping others who would appreciate a bit of help does seem to make us a bit happier. Buddhists have known this for long time.

[44'cruisingcat]

At the Lizard island research station we were told that sea levels were 30m lower, 10,000 years ago.


So for the past 10,000 years, sea levels have risen at an average of 3mm/year.


Apparently the sea level is currently rising at maybe 1mm/year.

[zeehag]

i think before we decide what to do, that making sure taxes on common man for the lack of corpoorate accountability at common man expense are ceased -- forexample---- the hugenormous methane leak in aliso canyonj that has been ongoing for 2-3 MONTHS.. might wanna research this... the so cal gas and ed hired some folks who were bp oil spill cleanup.. so this may never end. and who gets to pay for it??!!!!! rodlmffao.

worrying about cow farts when the hugest disaster of spillage is occurring.... this is a gas.

i been waiting for the waters to rise since i was 8 years old. that i swhen i read in world telegram that this was gonna happen. whoot
BRING IT ON!!!!!

planet gonna change anyway--why try to stop it-- that stopping planetary change aint gonn ahappen.

[Mike OReilly]

I like this discussion thinwater. Thanks.

Without going through all the specifics, I agree with barnakiel's general thrust here. For me, the answer is pretty clear. Most of us in the rich developed world just need to use less; less resources (renewable and nonrenewable), less energy, less space -- less.

Living on a modest sailboat is one possible way of doing this. It's certainly not the only way. Nor is boat life inherently less resource/energy intensive. But it is a platform which lends itself to living more sustainably, and with less.

Living with a smaller environmental impact is explicitly one of the reasons my pattern and I are sailing away.

[SV THIRD DAY]

Why give up...
Lets cut the CO2 emissions of the USA to ZERO tomorrow.
So now if we plug that into the Climate Scripture Models, what does that tell us would happen?

Opps....NADA

So now, why are we having this debate when eliminating 100% of our CO2 evil emissions doesn't change the Models? Ah....because it is NOT about CO2 now is it...bingo. Eco Imperialism 101.

[Canibul]

I could get behind research on the REAL problem here, which is simply too many people on the planet.

Yet, people keep trying to adjust things so that we can "save" more of them, increase the numbers, and increase the problems caused by these numbers.

If we stopped spending money on disease and accident research, the "climate" issue would go away on it's own in a generation or two.

[Terra Nova]

Wonder where all that global warming is coming from...