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Old 30-12-2015, 20:49   #46
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

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Aside from being pretty much the dawn of modern humans at least (and I'm not sure their referring to homo sapiens here since we haven't been around anywhere near this long) what impressive researchers we have that can estimate a not only a population, but a breeding population to within half a thousand individuals 1.2 million years ago. Even more impressive, we were endangered for a million years. Take that polar bears.

Anyway its a mute point, because, if correct, it reinforces the idea that humans are better adapted to warmer climates well above those in which they initially evolved.

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Old 30-12-2015, 21:02   #47
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

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Aside from being pretty much the dawn of modern humans at least (and I'm not sure their referring to homo sapiens here since we haven't been around anywhere near this long) what impressive researchers we have that can estimate a not only a population, but a breeding population to within half a thousand individuals 1.2 million years ago. Even more impressive, we were endangered for a million years. Take that polar bears.

Anyway its a mute point, because, if correct, it reinforces the idea that humans are better adapted to warmer climates well above those in which they initially evolved.

The last bottle neck was 70,000 years ago. Again, how can you be so sure a species of ape so successful at breeding to enormous numbers by depleting resources far beyond equilibrium will not go extinct?
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Old 30-12-2015, 21:07   #48
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

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The last bottle neck was 70,000 years ago. Again, how can you be so sure a species of ape so successful at breeding to enormous numbers by depleting resources far beyond equilibrium will not go extinct?
I'm not. I'm saying we can adapt to a warmer climate. If we choose to keep over breeding and gobbling up resources like there's no tomorrow then that is a different story altogether.

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Old 30-12-2015, 22:14   #49
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Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

For sure, since a little ice age is in the way, we will spend more time in the tropics


Why can't things remain where i carelessly left them?
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Old 31-12-2015, 08:38   #50
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

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...The world isn't running out of resources...remember peak oil?
Peak oil theory states: that any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output.
Although there is no general agreement about the date that world oil production will (or has) peak(ed), there is no doubt that it will, but we won't actually know until it is in our rearview mirror.
The eventual and painful shift to different sources of energy (the start of the post-oil age) does not begin when the last drop of oil is sucked from the ground. It begins when producers are unable to economically continue increasing their output to meet rising demand.
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Old 31-12-2015, 08:54   #51
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

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I'm not. I'm saying we can adapt to a warmer climate. If we choose to keep over breeding and gobbling up resources like there's no tomorrow then that is a different story altogether.
exactly. There's just something out of whack with an animal that insists on living in places where the air temperature can kill it.
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Old 31-12-2015, 09:11   #52
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

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...we won't actually know until it is in our rearview mirror.

The eventual and painful shift to different sources of energy (the start of the post-oil age) does not begin when the last drop of oil is sucked from the ground. It begins when producers are unable to economically continue increasing their output to meet rising demand.
Yep. Predicting the timing of "peak oil" seems to suffer from the same kind of science that Climate Change suffers from. "Credible" estimates have been all over the map for the past forty years.

The explosion in new sources has inspired Saudi Arabian attempts to stop expansion and exploitation of these sources, and their efforts are beginning to work. Crude oil is selling at less than forty percent of its price two years ago, and the glut is so great that tankers are sitting idle in ports, full, and not being unloaded.

Cheap carbon fuels undermine efforts to diversify energy supplies, even with government subsidies.
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Old 31-12-2015, 11:12   #53
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

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Yep. Predicting the timing of "peak oil" seems to suffer from the same kind of science that Climate Change suffers from. "Credible" estimates have been all over the map for the past forty years.

The explosion in new sources has inspired Saudi Arabian attempts to stop expansion and exploitation of these sources, and their efforts are beginning to work. Crude oil is selling at less than forty percent of its price two years ago, and the glut is so great that tankers are sitting idle in ports, full, and not being unloaded.

Cheap carbon fuels undermine efforts to diversify energy supplies, even with government subsidies.
fryer, you likely know the answer to this better than I, but my understanding is that there have been few new major sources of oil (hydrocarbon) discovered. What has happened is that we've discovered enhanced ways of extracting more and more of the oil from existing sources. Hydrofracturing and oil sands come to mind as primary examples, but also improved deep sea drilling techniques and improved pipelines have also added to supply.

How long can an existing well be fracked? I've come across a number of articles which are raising concern that the shale oil boom, which is the major source of new oil these last few years, will be short-lived.

Here's a Bloomberg article on the subject, although the literate is thick with similar pieces:

U.S. Shale-Oil Boom May Not Last as Fracking Wells Lack Staying Power

If this oil boom goes just as suddenly bust, the world economy could be in for a pretty nasty shock.
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Old 31-12-2015, 11:49   #54
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

Crude Oil Price, Oil, Energy, Petroleum, Oil Price, WTI & Brent Oil, Oil Price Charts and Oil Price Forecast
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Old 31-12-2015, 13:02   #55
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

I'm not seeing a prediction here Senormechanico, although perhaps my ad/spam blockers are masking it. But regarding economic forecasts, a fun quote comes to mind:

"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."

It seems that few economists predicted that the price of oil would fall off the cliff, much like virtually all missed the 2008 crash. I would not bet the farm on any forecast that comes out of "the dismal science."
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Old 31-12-2015, 13:15   #56
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

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...
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."

...
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Old 31-12-2015, 13:26   #57
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

I'm certainly no expert on any facet of oil exploration and production, but I am aware that technological advances in many areas have been responsible for much of the explosion in US production. Much of this production increase is independent of fracking, and much is due to new discovery technology and improved drilling technology.

For example, in the area I live, over the past fifty years a few wildcat wells have produced but drilling had been hit and miss, with mostly misses with dry wells drilled to about 8Kft. During the past decade, new seismography has identified a vast area in the region with extensive crude between about 13Kft and 16Kft deep, and hundreds of wells have been drilled with a very high percentage striking with affordable production. The technology to drill to such depths with the accuracy needed to hit the pocket or seam or dome shown in the improved graphics didn't exist until quite recently. Many of these wells include natural gas at very high pressures (up to about 5000 psig in some cases) and pipelines to bring it to market are being constructed.

The oil glut and depressed prices have curtailed drilling to a large degree (capital investors are sitting on the oil until prices improve), but the oil will be there when demand raises prices again, as it will...and with new technology perhaps even more will be available.

As you stated in your post, at some point carbon based fuels will run out, but, like concerns about dropping food production causing widespread famine decades ago, concerns about peak oil seem to have been dramatically overstated...which was the point of the OP in other thread on AGW...scientific and technical advances could make many of the greater concerns moot.

I found your comment about living by the precautionary principle interesting. I suspect that differences in one's belief in the principle could explain differences in opinions regarding AGW action. And I wonder that anyone who lived by that principle would take the risk of pushing away from the pier...think of all the bad things that could happen!!!
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Old 31-12-2015, 13:38   #58
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

It is not about oil and sea levels. It will be about food and water. Mostly water.
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Old 31-12-2015, 14:21   #59
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

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Originally Posted by fryewe View Post
I'm certainly no expert on any facet of oil exploration and production, but I am aware that technological advances in many areas have been responsible for much of the explosion in US production. Much of this production increase is independent of fracking, and much is due to new discovery technology and improved drilling technology.
Hmmm, I'm pretty sure most of the additional oil being produced in the US is as a direct result of shale oil fracking production. I'm not able to do the research right now, but this should be an easy one to check. I'll get on it once back in wifi zone.

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Originally Posted by fryewe View Post
As you stated in your post, at some point carbon based fuels will run out, but, like concerns about dropping food production causing widespread famine decades ago, concerns about peak oil seem to have been dramatically overstated...which was the point of the OP in other thread on AGW...scientific and technical advances could make many of the greater concerns moot.
I didn't actually say oil will run out. I did wonder about what will happen when this current boom in US production wanes. This is based on a some articles and research papers I've come across which point to the limited lifespan of fracked wells. If oil production wanes as fast as it waxed, the economic shock of rapidly rising oil prices would be, well... I dunno... bad I'd guess.

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Originally Posted by fryewe View Post
I found your comment about living by the precautionary principle interesting. I suspect that differences in one's belief in the principle could explain differences in opinions regarding AGW action. And I wonder that anyone who lived by that principle would take the risk of pushing away from the pier...think of all the bad things that could happen!!!
Again, you seem to be reading more into my comments that I intended. I simply commented that economists have a pretty bad track record when it comes to making reliable predictions regarding many economic factors, such as the price of oil. Given this, it seems unwise to rely on them when planning for the future.

I'm not sure what my personal risk management approach has to do with the discussion fryewe. Happy to discuss risk assessment and mitigation, but perhaps we should use another thread for that.
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Old 31-12-2015, 14:34   #60
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Re: Assuming We Can't Stop Climate Change...

We can solve CO2 emissions today with current technology. If the so-called "climate change" discourse was really about carbon emissions we would solve it with nuclear energy. The whole discussion is really about resource allocation and ever increasing control of our lives by ever larger bureaucracies. That whole farce in Paris would have been a lot more believable if even one of the major participants had mentioned nuclear power generation. That's not going to happen because it runs counter to the liberal narrative just like development and growth runs counter to that narrative.

Over history there has only ever been one permanent cure for environmental impairment and that has been real sustainable industrial growth and development.
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