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Old 09-09-2013, 07:12   #61
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Re: Additional Climate stuff, but please stay calm

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Originally Posted by Travelnik View Post
And now for something completely different...


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Old 09-09-2013, 08:21   #62
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Re: Additional Climate stuff, but please stay calm

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Originally Posted by jongleur View Post
Delfin said:

Kind of like Paul Erlich's prediction of mass famine from over population made in 1970. So wrong as to be silly.

But Ehrlich was right.

During the decades
surrounding the year 2000, approximately
20,000 to 40,000 people were dying each day
from malnutrition. Using the conservative
number, that would be 7,300,000 deaths from
malnutrition per year.

So in 20 years, that would be 146 million
people dying from malnutrition.

But according to you, that is just silly.

Please, stop.
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines–hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”
- Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, (New York: Ballentine Books, 1968), p. 13.


“We can be reasonably sure . . . that within the next quarter of a century [by 2000] mankind will be looking elsewhere than in oil wells for its main source of energy.”
- Paul Ehrlich and Anne Ehrlich, The End of Affluence (Rivercity, Mass.: Rivercity Press, 1974, 1975), p. 49.


“If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”
- Paul Ehrlich, quoted in Julian Simon, The Ultimate Resource 2, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), p. 35.


“I have yet to meet anyone familiar with the situation who thinks India will be self-sufficient in food by 1971, if ever.”
(The Ultimate Resource, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1981, p. 64).
Note: India was a net food exporter within three years of this prediction

I've always been surprised that there are those who find a way to make a living imagining things. What is more of a mystery is that they always have a very fervent and evangelical following, willing to pay them to keep making fools of themselves.
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Old 09-09-2013, 08:27   #63
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Re: Additional Climate stuff

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
Wow, insurance companies have figured out a way to raise premiums. Clever fellows, since the most profitable kind of insurance is that which insures against what isn't happening.

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Off To A Slow Start, Despite Forecasts

Roger Pielke, Jr. of the University of Colorado found that weather events are becoming anything but extreme. Pielke told Congress that “on climate time scales in the US or globally, there has not been an increase in hurricanes, droughts, floods or tornadoes. The evidence for this claim is strong and is well-supported in the peer-reviewed literature, data collected by the U.S. government’s research agencies and the recent report on extreme events by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Pielke added that “the US has not seen an increase in hurricane landfall frequency or intensity since at least 1900, nor in measures of damage, normalized for societal change. In fact, the US is presently in the longest stretch without a Category 3+ hurricane landfall since at least 1900.”
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Old 09-09-2013, 08:35   #64
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Re: Additional Climate stuff

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
Mud, mud, mud, mud.

Nope. You clearly don't want to get into any mudslinging in this thread.
You mean, governments aren't paying for the IPCC, Michael Mann, Jim Hansen, etc. etc.? Who is?
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Old 09-09-2013, 09:25   #65
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Re: Additional Climate stuff

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You mean, governments aren't paying for the IPCC, Michael Mann, Jim Hansen, etc. etc.? Who is?
Ah yes, those conniving, conspiring climate scientists again.

What, you mean the anti-AGW faction isn't being led by the fossil-fuel industry and friends?

We can do this all day, just like the other thread that you didn't want to descend to the level of...

Mud, mud, mud... nothing new. Thanks Delfin.

hey mods - just cut and paste any 6 pages of any of the last climate-change threads into here then just shut 'er down. It'll save some of us some typing, and a whole lot of hassle for yourselves.

Can we maybe declare a moratorium on climate-change/AGW threads? There's been no real info exchange in these threads for days; we're just waging a war of (verbal) attrition.
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Old 09-09-2013, 09:25   #66
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Re: Additional Climate stuff, but please stay calm

As suggested in my first post, I don't think it is particularly productive to bicker over AGW. Crusaders who want to DO SOMETHING have fixed positions, and the more adverse data that rolls in undercutting their suppositions, the more they dig in. The rest of us, who actually got the memo that the earth has warmed, and cooled many times in the past are skeptical of initiatives that purport to solve a problem by attacking one minor greenhouse gas that humans make a trivial contribution to relative to natural sources.

No scientific consensus exists on climate change, other than it changes, no matter how many times AGW proponents pretend otherwise. And while we'll know soon enough if the IPCC models are completely bankrupt with a continuation of the current cessation of warming (acknowledged by everyone except a few on this thread), we won't settle the issue of how much humans have to do with warming any time soon. The most amusing outcome would be for the cooling trend that is predicted by a growing number of scientists to be realized, as that would put the Crusaders into a position where they would have to argue that 1.) cooling is good (see the picture of Washington crossing the Delaware with icebergs for the counter to that argument); 2.) Anthropogenic CO2 doesn't warm but cools, so we still have to control it; or 3.) Anthropogenic CO2 does warm, so now we have to increase it to prevent another mini ice age. Any one of these would be a real thigh slapper, IMHO.

Since we have good data on warming from NOAA satellites (a piddling amount over 30 years), and we can see whether the Arctic are building ice or losing it (a cycle that has been repeated over and over again in the past), we'll know right quick whether AGW hysteria is good science, or just a lot of political hot air.
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Old 09-09-2013, 09:33   #67
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Re: Additional Climate stuff, but please stay calm

I like turtles.
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Old 09-09-2013, 09:54   #68
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Re: Additional Climate stuff, but please stay calm

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Originally Posted by Delfin View Post
As suggested in my first post, I don't think it is particularly productive to bicker over AGW.
Then you must be doing it just for amusement, cos you haven't stopped.

Quote:
Crusaders who want to DO SOMETHING have fixed positions, and the more adverse data that rolls in undercutting their suppositions, the more they dig in. The rest of us, who actually got the memo that the earth has warmed, and cooled many times in the past are skeptical of initiatives that purport to solve a problem by attacking one minor greenhouse gas that humans make a trivial contribution to relative to natural sources.

No scientific consensus exists on climate change, other than it changes, no matter how many times AGW proponents pretend otherwise....

Since we have good data on warming from NOAA satellites (a piddling amount over 30 years), and we can see whether the Arctic are building ice or losing it (a cycle that has been repeated over and over again in the past), we'll know right quick whether AGW hysteria is good science, or just a lot of political hot air.
Mud, mud, mud, mud. Your arguments contain all the pig-ignorant, confabulating, distorted, unyielding intransigence you're accusing AGW-defenders of.

Mods - a moratorium. How about it?
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Old 09-09-2013, 10:01   #69
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Re: Additional Climate stuff

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Originally Posted by Delfin View Post
Wow, insurance companies have figured out a way to raise premiums. Clever fellows, since the most profitable kind of insurance is that which insures against what isn't happening...
As I've come to expect from you, Black becomes White, and White morphs into Black.

The article is about four states asking how insurance companies are preparing for large claims due to extreme weather events, not about insurance companies trying to bilk customers into unnecessarily paying higher premiums. In fact one insurance company was specifically quoted as not having plans to raise premiums due to climate concerns:

Quote:
At least one Minnesota insurer said climate change and its effects are not clearly enough understood to prompt higher insurance premiums.
Stuart Henderson, CEO of Western National Insurance Co., which writes $40 million worth of homeowners insurance in Minnesota, said his company is regularly assessing its exposure to all risks, and will adjust to climate change if necessary.
But before we be certain that ALL insurance companies are unconcerned about climate change, let's look at the Lloyds (of London) Risk Index for 2013. From the section on Climate Risk:


Quote:
The priority scores respondents give to climate
change as a risk have, like those for virtually all
other risks, gone up fractionally since 2011,
from 4.1 to 4.2. Overall this risk has moved up
one place to 32…


Yet, with the sole exception of Latin America,
business leaders from all other three major
regions of the world continue to score their
ability to deal with the risk of climate change
more highly than the score they give the risk
itself. This difference is most striking for North
America, where businesses scored themselves
at 5.2 for preparedness, against 3.0 for priority.
Only in Latin America do business leaders
appear to believe they are underprepared for
the threat climate change poses.

In the face of more immediate economic and
political risks, the public profile of climate
change has declined; it does not dominate the
front pages as it once did. Yet the problem
itself remains and is likely to be getting worse.
The role of man-made carbon emissions in
contributing to climate change is now widely
accepted, with an increasing body of evidence
that climate change is leading to more
extreme weather events. The tensions
between high polluting growth economies and
low polluting nations which are
disproportionately affected by the effects of
climate change are unlikely to be resolved any
time soon. In the face of a lack of coordinated
action by global governments, companies may
have to accept they are, for the time being,
largely on their own when it comes to taking
action to mitigate the ongoing effects of
climate change on their businesses – looking
at ways to manage its impact on their supply
chains may well be a productive place to start…
From this document I learned that, world-wide, businesses have judged the risk of climate change to have increase compared to the last time they were polled. I learned that US businesses feel they have gone to the trouble of preparing themselves for climate change. And I learned that Lloyds itself believes that the risks associated with climate change are greater than what the general public believes they are, and will likely get worse.


This continues to support my contention that more people in positions of responsibility are paying attention to climate change, not fewer people.



Risk Index 2013 - Risk Reports - Lloyd's
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Old 09-09-2013, 10:13   #70
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Re: Additional Climate stuff

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
...Can we maybe declare a moratorium on climate-change/AGW threads? There's been no real info exchange in these threads for days; we're just waging a war of (verbal) attrition.
I would beg to differ. I've learned a few new-to-me scientific things from Delfin (though I've also learned some things I suspect he would have preferred I didn't find out), and I and others have also presented new scientific information which is relevant to the topic.

I don't think the mods mind our having a discussion on the topic of climate change, I just think they want it to be civil.
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Old 09-09-2013, 10:20   #71
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Re: Additional Climate stuff

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
I would beg to differ. I've learned a few new-to-me scientific things from Delfin (though I've also learned some things I suspect he would have preferred I didn't find out), and I and others have also presented new scientific information which is relevant to the topic.

I don't think the mods mind our having a discussion on the topic of climate change, I just think they want it to be civil.
... you're correct, and in particular I'd like to thank you for your patience and scholarship.

I have to admit that the non-stop baiting from a few of our resident deniers has gotten to me, and the 'civil' part is getting tougher. The fault is mine; I will try to draw on your example.

A wee something for those claiming that the increased Arctic ice in 2013 is damaging to the models supporting AGW:

Arctic sea ice delusions strike the Mail on Sunday and Telegraph

Both UK periodicals focus on short-term noise and ignore the rapid long-term Arctic sea ice death spiral

This in particular was illuminating:
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Old 09-09-2013, 10:22   #72
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Re: Additional Climate stuff, but please stay calm

Delfin implied that:

I have a fervent and evangelical belief
that hundreds of millions of people have
died of starvation since the 1970s and it's
nothing to be concerned with because
Ehrlich was mistaken about other things and
after all, it's all just "silly."

You seem to think that people have to be
right 100% of the time to be right at all.

Please, stop.
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Old 09-09-2013, 11:08   #73
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Re: Additional Climate stuff, but please stay calm

To those of you who are mudslinging:

I'm outta here. Your sarcastic jabs at one another degrade for me whatever validity your agruments might have. It's too bad, because some of the data are really fascinating.

The whole subject is really quite complex, no wonder accurate modeling is so difficult.

Where you do have passionate opinions that are ill supported by facts, why not simply own your passionate opinion and explain clearly why they have become your beliefs?
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Old 09-09-2013, 13:15   #74
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Re: Additional Climate stuff

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
I don't think the mods mind our having a discussion on the topic of climate change, I just think they want it to be civil.


However, four threads on climate change (including this one) have now been closed in the past three weeks due to less than civil behaviour.

All rights to discuss this off-topic subject on CF are now suspended.
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