Sailing in recession ?

[RUSTYNAIL]

I received a call from my younger step-brother this morning, he had a massive heart attack, but made it. That puts my boat in perfect perspective of the value of time over deflation or depreciation. If boating is important, make it happen, and if you can't take a 50% loss, you may have a heart attack when you need to sell it. Then charter a boat, or find a friend that needs good crew. Worldwide, we are living in the best, but most unpredictable times. Standing by.

[Joe Okros]

Circles of interest and Circles of influence,- that's my philosophy. I'm interested in all the things mentioned above but I have almost zero influence on the looming recessions/revolutions/social unrest/climate change/WW111/Chinese World Domination etc etc etc.

BUT my boat is paid for, it has a watermaker and I know how to catch fish,---if it gets really **** where I am, I can move.

For the most part, I couldn't give a **** about the rest, as a wise man once told me, when you go to sleep at night all you really need is about 3mx1m of shelter to keep you warm and dry,----everything else is excessive to your needs.

[john61ct]

Originally Posted by captaingregger

What boggles my mind is the thousands of boats you see at US marinas that never get used. I mean if you’re busy, I get it. But at $1,200-$2,200/ mo for a slip in a lot of places and you won’t even use your boat but once every 5 years? I’ll never understand that situation.

So many people have enough money, that even $5000 / mo, for some $50,000 / mo is proportional to an extra takeaway coffee for someone making under a half mil USD p.a.

An amount not even worth thinking about, much less taking action on.

The fact they have so much, is what they spend money on, trying to get through our thick pleb skulls just how much.

If it wasn't tied up at the dock it would be "wasted" on something else, that maybe "trickles down" even less.

So be properly grateful and in awe of their wealth and our great system that allows it to accumulate unchecked.

[Cestassez]

I can only tell you our own story, AND you can read about it in my book, Escape from the Ordinary. We were early FIRE people and had saved a nest egg to buy a blue water boat. The 39 ft coastal cruiser we owned was not up to the task of a circumnavigation. During our last months of work we sold everything, and our nest egg grew. However, the kind of boat we wanted was still out of our reach. EXCEPT, in Europe. The exchange rate allowed us to buy twice the boat we could have afforded in the USA. We were nervous nellies about which day to exchange our currency (at those numbers even half a cent makes a difference). It worked out great for us. We had friends who did the same with their sailboat manufactured in South Africa, and another whose aluminum sailboat was built in New Zealand, Costa Rica, Australia....

There are special currency situations that can play in your favor which will greatly reduce the money you lose when you sell your boat. We bought our Super Maramu new at the factory (read about that part in Escape from the Ordinary and you will see what amateurs we were) lived on board and sailed her around the world for 8 years and lost very little money when we sold her. My husband IS a banshee when it comes to maintenance and upkeep so the boat looked great, but mostly it was due to the great exchange rate for buying. Hope this helps and you get a GREAT boat that serves you well. I would not trade those years for any amount of money.

[Aargau]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

The economy in the USA is roaring ahead, moving forward like it hasn't since the Reagan years. Anyone who wants a job is working and can probably get overtime or two jobs. You won't hear any of this in the news but, it is all thanks to Trump; and hopefully most will have figured it out before the next election in two years time.

I rent office space for a living which was nearly impossible to do during the Obama years, now I have a waiting list, mostly startup businesses.

I'd buy a boat from this guy in about...2 years.

Always bookmark the people who say the economy is booming, ascribing the reason to some simplistic and fact-free causal agent, and especially if they claim quants, economists, and the media are not reporting how great their Dear Leader is doing, then check up on them later.

International rental property and land tend to give the same value to yachting in good times and bad, the income they generate correlates with the costs of supplies and repairs reasonably well.

[Captains.chair]

What if your in the market to buy a boat .I like the fact that I could potentially save 30% .I've got a 30% deficiency now with the Canadian dollar .I'm just waiting for the dollar to improve to pull the trigger.hopefully before I die would be nice

[Chotu]

Waiting on this recession like.....

I can't find employees, can't find someone to build out the rest of one of my boats. My life is at a standstill because there is such a shortage of available people who want to work.

Praying for this recession to get started so things can get moving again.

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by Aargau

I'd buy a boat from this guy in about...2 years.

Always bookmark the people who say the economy is booming, ascribing the reason to some simplistic and fact-free causal agent, and especially if they claim quants, economists, and the media...

Wisdom (right out of the Michael Burry playbook).

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by Chotu

Waiting on this recession like.....

I can't find employees, can't find someone to build out the rest of one of my boats. My life is at a standstill because there is such a shortage of available people who want to work.

Praying for this recession to get started so things can get moving again.

If you offer a more competitive salary/compensation you will get your employees. If you cannot offer more now, there really is no logical reason to expect that you will be able to in the foreseeable future. The labor force participation rate has been decreasing for years with no logical expectation that it will increase in the foreseeable future.

Firms that cannot hire will have to scale back operations (already are), which reduces, ultimately, consumption from other firms in a positive feedback loop manner. This can define system contraction (i.e. recession as viewed from another angle).

In any event, those who have already opted out of the traditional economy are least like to be cajoled back into the work you are advertising for.

[john61ct]

If the economy were truly "healthy" then every human being in the country working full-time hours could afford to raise kids, have good health care for the whole family, send them to a quality school in a safe neighborhood, have childcare available cheap compared to their hourly income, feed them healthy food and buy a decent home within 30min of their work.

That would be a **truly healthy** economy.

And if that means that, for those who already have those above "privileges",

travel and hotels, eating out in restaurants, having servants and workers doing your stuff for you, all suddenly seem so much less affordable,

well let me play you the world's smallest violin.

[senormechanico]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Once upon a time every company paided dividends, you owned part of the company, now what percentage of public companies pay dividends ? , apparently you own part of the company but you recieve no part of profit, the company has zero obligation to pay you anything at all, you (mostly) have no voting rights, the company can issue more shares and the share price is divorced from the companies success or failure, it's solely driven by demand for the stock. It relies on a constant supply of "investors" coming in from the bottom.

In the old days, that was called "Counterfeiting".

[Icarus]

For some its a hobby, for myself it's a way of living. I am not concerned what my 'asset' is going to be worth in the future. I do things because I choose to not because it makes sense or not to some established way of thinking of doing things.
In this moment of time we all ( or most of us ) get screwed by monitary institutions anyway....just have a look at prevailing interest rates on the funds we deposit ( lend ) to banks...what 1% ? 2%?...considering if I was to borrow money from the bank I would have to pay anything from 5% to 21%...
I rather go sailing..

[Icarus]

Originally Posted by Wallaby

Kudos to the original poster.

Sorry if what follows seems pedantic.

From my perspective, ( a Ph.D. in Finance) the imminent economic situation (2019-2020) is not good. Economic systems reset regularly, the duration/intensity being the result of causal factors. The more 'structural' the cause, the worse the reset. The last recession, while bad, was actually minimized by the world's reserve banks flooding capital markets. At effectively zero interest rates, there was a massive wealth transfer of savings to corporations and the very wealthy.


After ten years, there is no longer a high probability of the next recession--it is underway at the moment. For those wanting 'proof', the evidence is abundant: look at the major international players (China, Germany, US, Japan). However, you will need to do this outside the mainstream media. I say this because of the dominant political agenda. There are any number of websites/blogs with good insight into what is happenning.



The only question is how bad it will get. For most of us cruisers, our income depends on retirement funds, 401K, pension plans, social security etc. Given the 'evidence' I am seeing, I worry more about those failing than the 'value' of my boat. Do not think social security is guaranteed. In an economic crisis, everything is on the table.




Possible outcomes range from more of the same:
Reserve banks continue QE (quantitative easing), flooding markets with even more low interest debt. The result is low GNP gains with massive increases in debt. This will only postpone the inevitable, or result in a prolonged period of very slow recovery.



to a massive global implosion.


Other than buy gold as a hedge, or invest in real, incoming producing assets there is not much you can to do except tighten your belt. Imagine a structural collapse of banking, currencies, etc. with so much debt outstanding that governments are unable to do much about it except flood the world with more fiat money--think inflation. Another reason to buy gold/real assets.


Now, I've done my doom and gloom thing, to answer the original poster.


Asset values (your catamaran) will fluctuate based on demand and supply, and the rate of currency exchange, itself the result of demand and supply for the exchange currencies. Factors influencing exchange rates include relative inflation, interest rates, real GNP growth, various risk elements, and so on.
If I was trying to avoid the issue you raise, I'd buy gold as a store of (perceived) value and medium of exchange. If you had a monohull, you could store it in the keel.

Makes sense to store gold in the keel being heavier as lead.
Gold is good for plating electrical contacts, its shiney and non corrosive
Otherwise its not much useful, its better to have a lifestyle witch can, or has the possibility to sustain ones need for survival.....IMHO

[turtleofdart]

I am just grateful I can share our beautiful humble space on the water with my wife and get away from the world. I don't want to think about anything else. it would defeat the object of finding such a peaceful place to be.... I dream of the day everything I own fits on the boat...

[sailorboy1]

The economy has been so bad that I left to full time cruise 30 months ago at age 56. I have been spending mostly overbudget yet still have over 90% of the net worth I started with.

The market has been terrible