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Old 23-01-2008, 14:37   #76
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but what is now unfolding in the markets has that Black Swan feeling to me
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Most people expect all swans to be white, because that's what their experience tells them; a black swan is, by definition, a surprise.
.....Well thats wonderful news for us here in Australia, because we only have Black Swans and there fore should have no nasty surprises....


One day economists will realise that perpetual growth as the basis of a system is as sensible and possible as believing that mineral oil reserves will last for ever. Statements like "we have a strong and healthy economy because we are in our third consecutive year of growth" is fine as long as when the economy is all grown up and getting old that there is a plan for its retirement ! : )
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Old 23-01-2008, 15:43   #77
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I'm leaving soon, for good. I put my money in the bank and the bank pays interest. I spend the interest with a little extra to savings. Everything is FDIC insured. No tricks, no gimmicks, no hassles. I cash them via the net and put the interest in my regular account and re-up the CD. Rates have been from 3.8% four years ago to 5.5% this year, although I expect the rate to go down and then start climbing again in early 2009. At the FDIC limit, you can use another bank, or if that sounds too complicated, give it all to Scwab and they will place it in various banks, all FDIC insured, at no fee, to you but the banks kick back to Scwab. Then you can spread it all out and have one place to manage it from. They will also give you a VISA or Mastercard as well as a free checking account and savings account to park your interest in to cover day to day expenses. No tax complications either, a simple statement each year. You can do your taxes on line at HR Block for about $30. Inflation doesn't matter if you live outside the country in a cheaper area, or if you aren't the consumer you were on land, which is how my evolution is turning out. I just want to simplifiy.
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Old 23-01-2008, 17:17   #78
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I will answer the question at hand.

If we were not in the situation that we are now we would be gone already.
My plan was to cruise until the money was gone then sell the boat and go from there. My plan was to be able to be out for 10 to 20 years and be frugal where we could. I have been planing this for about 8 years now and up until january 13 2008 we were just waiting to go. We prepared the boat and it is about ready, Sold what needed to and come hell or high water we were leaving. But as many of you very caring people know, my Daughter died january 14 2008 and nothing will be the same.
My advise is if you think you can go... DO IT!!! The money will come. Life is to short! Do not put your trust in the market it is only a tool and sometimes tools break.
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Old 23-01-2008, 17:35   #79
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All swans are black...

As an Australian all the swans that I see are black.

Australian Black Swan
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Old 23-01-2008, 18:02   #80
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The economic downturn has definitely held us up. We had planned to leave in November last year but it looks like we will finally be leaving in late Feb or early March this year (few weeks away!!!). My business is residential construction and my volume is down 90% from this time last year!!!!! So...needless to say the nestegg isn't quite what I had hoped and planned for at this stage....I have loads of money tied up in assets right now and right now is definitely not a good time for that to be the case....so....we are going regardless...if stuff sells it sells...otherwise I don't know what we'll do...we have enough for about 3 years at the moment but would be penniless after that but with a great boat owned free and clear. So life won't be all that bad....I really could care less if I'm saying "Welcome to Walmart" when I'm 75...as long as I have spent the previous 20 years floating around the planet....something will turn up...I have absolute faith that things will be just fine......so it's off we go!!.....
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Old 23-01-2008, 18:49   #81
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I already bought the boat last year ,so there is no going back . Taking my kids with me ,age 8 and 12 . I would never regret it doing this with out them . We too have to sell the shack and I'm not sure how the market will be in the spring, but the admiral is saying will be dropping the price until she sells . We want to get poorer as we get older . I will be very pissed of when i die and there would be ten bucks still left on my account .
Never seen the U-Haul truck behind the funeral procession
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Old 23-01-2008, 19:09   #82
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I really could care less if I'm saying "Welcome to Walmart" when I'm 75...as long as I have spent the previous 20 years floating around the planet....something will turn up...I have absolute faith that things will be just fine......so it's off we go!!.....
Outstanding!

My plan is driving the Hertz bus at the airport. I think the yellow embroidery on the sleeves of the shirts are way cool

Henyk - Perfect planning IMO is having the check to the funeral parlor bounce
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Old 23-01-2008, 19:51   #83
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Our plan was to depart in Autumn 2008 and we'll leave as scheduled.

Our only significant changes for have been in the allocation of investments / assets. We sold down investment property (UK) & equities last winter and were sitting largely on cash / gold in anticipation of a correction. We expect to hold this position for some time. It'll really have no effect on our plans or income.

I'm fully in agreement with TaoJones - the current state of the world economy is nothing to be sanguine about. This is going to be a wrenching, unpleasant realignment and it has only just commenced.

Anything bought with credit will get absolutely hammered. And that includes a lot of unexpected spin offs: Consumption fueled by Mortgage Equity Withdrawals; Raw materials to support that inflated consumption; Cars, boats, services & luxury items, etc. All of which will hollow out corporate profits supporting current equity valuations.

Interest rates aren't the story they're now a sideshow - IR reductions will only be effective in rebuilding financial balance sheets (and it will be a slow process at that). There are unexpected and unprecedented defaults in auto loans and credit cards coming next. This bad news will be drip fed into the economy for a couple of years. A few large financial institutions will go bust (or require serious bailouts).

And this is by no means a uniquely American problem. They simply have the dubious distinction of being the first to suffer (much like the Asian economic crisis 'started' in Thailand). Credit has been issued wantonly in every developed nation - you may not call it 'subprime' locally but any banker of a generation ago would call it merde. There simply is not enough cashflow to service the stupendous amounts of debt out there.

Don't underestimate this. Be financially defensive.
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Old 23-01-2008, 20:21   #84
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An old farts view of current economics

In MHO, the size of what is economically wacko in not only the U.S., but most nation's economies, is so huge that we are going to see a world wide STEEP recession. Think Tusanami. Deep, deep deflation.

The last time this happened, in the 30's, lots of people made lots of money because they had cash. And every dollar they had was worth hundreds of dollars in buying
power. Apartment building and houses were selling for taxes.

I've gone to cash and it is not in the hands of any bank.

The FDIC cannot cover 10% of deposits.

The Federal Reserve is a Privately owned banking institution which profits mightily from Federal debt, among other things.

Give this another two years. My bet is it will deflate gigantically because there is no force on this planet with enough money to stop it.

I'm taking a hit on deflating dollars now, but my Euros are up, and I'm holding 50-50.
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Old 23-01-2008, 21:30   #85
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If it aint in the banks where is it, under your pillow?

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In MHO, the size of what is economically wacko in not only the U.S., but most nation's economies, is so huge that we are going to see a world wide STEEP recession. Think Tusanami. Deep, deep deflation.

The last time this happened, in the 30's, lots of people made lots of money because they had cash. And every dollar they had was worth hundreds of dollars in buying
power. Apartment building and houses were selling for taxes.

I've gone to cash and it is not in the hands of any bank.

The FDIC cannot cover 10% of deposits.

The Federal Reserve is a Privately owned banking institution which profits mightily from Federal debt, among other things.

Give this another two years. My bet is it will deflate gigantically because there is no force on this planet with enough money to stop it.

I'm taking a hit on deflating dollars now, but my Euros are up, and I'm holding 50-50.
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Old 23-01-2008, 22:26   #86
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:Wouldn't you like to know!
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Old 23-01-2008, 22:42   #87
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I know, you spent it on your boat
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Old 23-01-2008, 23:19   #88
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Thumbs up I'm with you Rez!

I only leave enough money in the bank to pay the bills. Why let the banks profit from our money? If I need to pull 10K for an investment I don't have to go threw all the questions and ID checks to get my own.

And remember on 9/11 when they shut down a bunch of banks! You can't even access your own money if something goes wrong.

The role of relative performance in bank closure decisions
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Old 24-01-2008, 00:51   #89
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Don't you just love it when people make these sort of statements then offer no alternative?

I know, you leave your money under your pillow and the tooth fairy gives you 10 percent interest! or are you both Mafia?
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Old 24-01-2008, 01:00   #90
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Don't you just love it when people make these sort of statements then offer no alternative?

I know, you leave your money under your pillow and the tooth fairy gives you 10 percent interest! or are you both Mafia?
you could always give us the lowdown on the NZ position, and your plans and thoughts on the subject.
if you want info, like money you may have to speculate to acumalate.
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