Marquesas to Mexico

[rneun]

I am presently in Ecuador heading for the Marquesas to cruise for a couple of months. I was wondering if anyone had heard of going directly from there to Mexico. Looking at Visual Passage Planer, If I stay to weather and make as much easting as possible up to 24 degrees north and then motor due east till I pick up northerly's and then down into Mexico. I would be leaving the Marquesas in late October. Have I lost my mind? Am I MAD? Thanks Bob S/V Taisho

[Randy]

Bob
In the absense of other advise checkout: Noonsite: The global site for cruising sailors It's Jimmy Cornell's website and he covers how to get from one place on this planet to virtually anywhere & when the most favorable times to do the trip.

Happy Cruising
Randy

[cagney]

No Bob, I don't think you're mad

Look at this modern day pilot-chart:


It's from the COGOW site ( Climatology of Global Ocean Winds - COGOW), currently the best source of up to date planning info for cruisers (and others).

What about this scenario?
Head North as you mention. From about the equator, you should be able to shape your course more easterly. As you can see the wind is mainly southerly just south of ITCZ ( along 8N ). Once you reach, say 6 - 7 N you should be able to head due E. Also at this latitude you should have quite a bit of help from the Equatorial counter current.
Once you reach, say 7N , 108W head N to NE straight for Mexico ( Acapulco ). At the end you will run into light winds and may have to motor for 300 - 500 miles.
You will probably have some squally weather sailing relatively close to ITCZ.
Note, a big uncertainty factor is the present ENSO state. It looks like we are heading from a La Nina to an El Nino situation.

From the 4:th of june NOAA update :

There continues to be considerable spread in the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5).
All statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions will continue for the remainder of 2009. However,
most dynamical models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System, predict the onset of El Niño
during June − August 2009. Current observations, recent trends, and the dynamical model forecasts
indicate that conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during
June − August 2009.

From earlier El Nino periods we know that the trades have even ceased to exist for periods. But on the other hand your trip i taking place in a situation that may be the start of an El Nino period.

What do you think? Maybe I'm the mad one!
Thomas.