Hi Windrush.... Have you decided on your route
to the Philippines?
While the El Nino has moderated, temps are still above norm and we are already getting SW changes in Subic
You can get details from this link but summary below
Updated on 14 April 2016
The El Niño continued to weaken in March 2016 but is still at a strong-to-moderate level based on March’s Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) readings (Figure A). Recent atmospheric responses to El Niño correspond to its observed weakening. For example, the trade
winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean
are near normal, and cloudiness near the dateline is looking less like typical El Niño conditions. The Niño3.4 index for March 2016 is 1.8 (Figure B) and the latest 3-month average (Jan-Mar) dropped from 2.7 to 2.3.
Large-scale rainfall response to the El Niño in terms of widespread, drier-than-normal conditions was observed over many parts
of the Southeast Asia
region for March 2016 (Figure C). International climate models and expert assessment suggest that the current
El Niño is likely to weaken by the middle of 2016 (Figure D) and either La Niña or neutral conditions are likely to occur in the second half of 2016 (Figure E).
Impact of El Niño on Southeast Asia
Typically the impact from El Niño for the Southeast Asia region is drier-than-normal rainfall conditions, especially for the southern parts
during June to October (Figure F). Locally-specific impact differs from place to place and for different seasons.
The region is now in the inter-monsoon season (Mar-May) where the impact from El Niño is not as significant as the June to October period and is also limited to parts of the region between 0°-10°N (Figure G). Nevertheless, during the past strong El Niño events
(1982-83 and 1997-98), drier conditions were observed over large parts of the region during March and April of 1983 and 1998.